Interpreting WINDFINDER speeds

[massnspace]

Not sure if it is just me, but it seems that over time wind predictions have gotten weird.

Specifically, the “speed” and “gust” data seems far off. Like wind is predicted to be 12, with gusts of 27, or similar.

What does that mean? Should I plan on 12 or close to 30 knots?

I been sailing for many years and don’t have much experience with wind gusting to 2 or even 3 times the regular wind strength….small gusts, sure, but not such a drastic change.

Anyway, this I have noticed on WINDFINDER….whats up with the numbers?

David
Seattle

[trswem]

In my area where we have geographic features that channel wind, gusts at 3x the sustained rate isn't uncommon.

For what it's worth, Windfinder probably isn't making any of these calculations themselves, they're just displaying the data provided by the model they're employing, I believe they use GFS. So any service using the GFS data should be showing the same thing.

I do prefer using something like Predict Wind where you can compare the different models, or LuckGrib (the best in my opinion). My practice has been to look at GFS and ECMWF first to identify the overall pattern or larger weather system picture, and then go to the regional models like HRRR or NAM that have much higher resolution, where they can account for the geographic features more accurately. Then I take everything and try to average it all out mentally, understanding that no single model will have it exactly right.

If the forecast more or less agree that the wind will be 15 but gusting to 30, I'm considering calling it a maintenance day. The 15 will be fun but the moments of 30 are more than my little boat can handle.