Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

[Boatswain2PA]

This is why sailing along the pnw from Oct-Feb is generally a bad idea.

Terrific author (and friend of mine), telling a tragically true tale.

https://www.amazon.de/Rescue-Gale-Ru.../dp/0813025559

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by UNCIVILIZED

I think that people don't get how serious they are, since they're not hurricanes, or named storms. Along with the part that many of them get hardly any press including on many forecasting sites. As with this one, & the other two, I’ve even been to some NOAA sites where, incredibly, there’s little to no mention of them. And given that it’s not uncommon to have a big storm every few days from now until spring, they’re not trendy news.

Also, the population density on the NW Coast is much lower than back east, or down in SoCal, so the news demand is smaller. And less people = less ratings = less income for the TV News stations. That & of course pics of tragedy sell, so if a storm tears apart structures that shoot well on camera…

People kind of get how serious they are if you use the 100mph or kts figure. Along with telling them that many winter storms in the area get birthed in the area in between Russia & Alaska. Or that the storms span from the Aleutians to BC. But things like wave height & period usually only make sense to surfers. Who else flies 5,000nm just to see waves? As not even sailors often grasp how big a 35’ wave is, especially since wave height is measured from the back.
Just tell folks that the waves are the size of strip malls, & that they’re several houses high. That sometimes works

they are cyclonic zombie storms which are leftover west pacific typhoons . they used to have names and they still retain the cyclonic structure.
no eye, just a cold heart and a lot of nasty.
in cyclonic formation.
but they ARE cyclonic remnants called correctly zombie storms.
if you look and study cyclonic storms, you can actually watch em cross over to pnw from japan.
goes shows.
pnw peeps please keep watching these supertyphoons coming at you-- look at them and study em so you donot get maimed or tortured by em

go look in storm 2k and read about the typhoons and study goes to watch their progress. i have been saying for years these are cyclonic with folks here in cf bashing me for it.

btw--these go to san diego an dso cal-- it was these that broke windows out of portofino inn(second story and first floor) in redondo beach and trashed much of west coast regularly in el nino and la nina years.
those in so cal expecting a dry winter--best buy weather gear">foul weather gear. and uggs.
oh yeah--we clocked winds at 95 mph in some of these when we were still in san diego.

[TacomaSailor]

Uncivilized said " As not even sailors often grasp how big a 35’ wave is, especially since wave height is measured from the back. Just tell folks that the waves are the size of strip malls, & that they’re several houses high. That sometimes works"

We were anchored in Neah Bay (NW tip of Washington State just inside Cape Flattery at the west entrance to the Straits of Juan de Fuca) headed for Cape Scott. There had been NW gales for two days in the Straits. The gales had been blowing SSE from the Aleutian Islands 1000 NM across the NE Pacific toward Cape Flattery for several days before that.

Day three I climbed on the cabin top to peer toward the Straights of Juan de Fuca and commented to a fellow boater who was visiting our boat. "There is sure a lot of big freighter and tanker traffic headed eastbound in the straits."

Friend had been the XO on the 175' USCG buoy tender Fir out of Seattle. He had made many transits of the straits and knew those were not freighters. He handed me the binoculars for a closer look.

The freighters were actually very big long period swells marching eastward.

The next day I was impatient to leave for the 225 NM mile trip NW to Cape Scott. An hour later we were going up and up and over 20' long period swells. The swells were so large the main was completely blanketed in the troughs. The swell crests were at least 20-seconds apart. They were smooth as silk with no white water or break at the crest. Just small hillocks rolling toward the SE.

Our 50 HP Yanmar running at 2800 RPM could not keep the boat speed above 4 knots going up the swell. Going down the backside - I had to pull it back to idle to keep from picking up too much speed.

An hour later, with the swells only getting bigger as we got further offshore I wanted to turn our 40' cutter around.

It was a real challenge turning the boat broadside to those swells.

Two days later we again left Neah Bay for a succesful sail to the north end of Vancouver Island at 52N.

[jtsailjt]

Biggest example of false advertising ever...the Pacific.

[alansmith]

Yup, the shizzle people are interested for their news is how Kim Kardashian got tied up and thrown in the bathtub. And that my folks is America these days.

[zeehag]

pacific is beautiful and almost flat .
until a storm agitates and angers it--wow. 50 ft seas in pnw storms were not uncommon just a few years ago.
50 ft seas could well become most incredibly memorable.....

[FatBear]

Originally Posted by UNCIVILIZED

I think that people don't get how serious they are, since they're not hurricanes, or named storms....Also, the population density on the NW Coast is much lower than back east, or down in SoCal, so the news demand is smaller. And less people = less ratings = less income for the TV News stations. That & of course pics of tragedy sell, so if a storm tears apart structures that shoot well on camera…

I lived on the north Oregon coast for quite a few years and agree. Population of the two northern counties combined was less than 40,000. (About the same area as the western part of San Diego county.) Even people over in Portland don't often know of the coastal storms. I counted 8 storms in one winter with winds over hurricane strength and two of those had sustained winds over 100 for hours with gusts much higher. A Frito Lay truck blew over and scattered chips up and down the highway. Jaded locals went around trying to catch them in 100+ winds. Try it, it's hard!

People kind of get how serious they are if you use the 100mph or kts figure. Along with telling them that many winter storms in the area get birthed in the area in between Russia & Alaska. Or that the storms span from the Aleutians to BC. But things like wave height & period usually only make sense to surfers. Who else flies 5,000nm just to see waves? As not even sailors often grasp how big a 35’ wave is, especially since wave height is measured from the back.

I was stationed on Adak, Alaska for 1.5 years in the 1970s. I still have a patch that says "Adak, AK Birthplace of the Winds". I was an engineman on a tug. One storm the anemometer on our building was pegged at 135 for something like a day and a half. We figured it had been broken by the storm, but when the winds abated it started registering again.

Did lots of sea time up there. Anything less than 25' seas was considered a good day. Less than 10' was "flat". Did one SAR that had us out for 11 hours, in for 30 minutes, and back out for another 11 hours in 45' seas with 65' reflection nodes off the south cliffs of Atka Island. Very unpleasant. Actually got seasick that time. (My only time ever.)

At least in the Aleutians you could sometimes cross over to the lee side of the islands in bad weather. Depending on where you were going and what you were doing. The Pacific coast off CA/OR/WA/BC is a lee shore all the way and no place to hide.

Just tell folks that the waves are the size of strip malls, & that they’re several houses high.

Actually, my wife figured this out for me. It was the only way she could get her head around it.

[FatBear]

Originally Posted by alansmith

What was it a couple of years when 4 or so guys had to be rescued off their boat trying to get from Washington/Vancouver to San Francisco? I think they just got beat to death over a 4-5 day period of intense weather. They literally were exhausted to the point of not being able to function the water had been so rough. Chime in if you remember more about the story. There ain't nothing passive about the Pacific this time of year....

So what about August? I know this is an old thread, but I'm an old guy now and I've been invited to help bring a 49' sailboat from the LA area to Portland, leaving the last week in August. It didn't seem like a very good idea to me, so I am just checking into it.

What resources are available to evaluate the probable weather off the coast a month in advance? A week in advance? A day in advance?


Thanks.

[Paul Elliott]

Originally Posted by FatBear

What resources are available to evaluate the probable weather off the coast a month in advance? A week in advance? A day in advance?

A month requires an Ouiji board. There's no good way to predict.

Weeks and days:
Ocean Prediction Center - Pacific Marine

https://www.windy.com/?48.107,-133.066,5,iressure,m:eYZacnS

In August we often have that "gale alley" or "crunch zone" somewhere between San Francisco and Cape Blanco. But I've also transited that region in August and had pretty reasonable conditions.

[Don C L]

I know there are members here that have done it a few times. I am only familiar with the stretch from Point Conception to SF, but this summer, July anyway, has been a bit odd because the windiest part of the eastern Pacific has been the California coast. August is typically a good month for the trip but this year I don't know. As far as weather predictions, the ones locally have been very accurate to a week out, but I don't know of any that are accurate a month out. I have 2 apps that have been very accurate locally anyway for up to a week and they have been able to show clearly where and when the winds will show up well. One is "Windy" aka windyty and the other I have is Wathermap+. There are others, but I use those and check them against the NOAA Marine forecasts.
Would sure like to talk to a meteorologist about what is going on this year... hope one will chime in here...

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by FatBear

So what about August? I know this is an old thread, but I'm an old guy now and I've been invited to help bring a 49' sailboat from the LA area to Portland, leaving the last week in August. It didn't seem like a very good idea to me, so I am just checking into it.

What resources are available to evaluate the probable weather off the coast a month in advance? A week in advance? A day in advance?


Thanks.

Resources? None that far out. My experience is that three days out is the best you'll get. Watch it for a while yourself. Take the third or fourth day out and see how much it changes in three days. Unless there is a tremendous BIG HIGH from SD to Vancouver Island, things change and can do so rapidly.


We used Passage Weather daily on the way up. Everybody's got their own favorites. What I was looking for days with NO wind. We were very lucky that year.



I brought our boat up from SF to BC from August 8 - Sept 18, 2016.


I would not go even a week later.

[Paul Elliott]

Originally Posted by Paul Elliott

A month requires an Ouiji board. There's no good way to predict.

I should have mentioned the Pilot Charts. These give monthly *historical averages* for the conditions in a given area. But these are averages, and certainly no guarantee. Some may claim that the climatic drivers for the weather have shifted enough to make the pilot charts even more unreliable. I don't know about that, but I do know that I would never start a passage based solely on the pilot charts. Also, the coastal gales between Portland and San Francisco can be quite localized, and the pilot chart isn't all that fine-grained.

Here's August in the north Pacific: https://msi.nga.mil/MSISiteContent/S...108/108aug.pdf

OpenCPN has a nice "climatology" plugin that displays the pilot chart data.

[Uricanejack]

Originally Posted by FatBear

So what about August? I know this is an old thread, but I'm an old guy now and I've been invited to help bring a 49' sailboat from the LA area to Portland, leaving the last week in August. It didn't seem like a very good idea to me, so I am just checking into it.

What resources are available to evaluate the probable weather off the coast a month in advance? A week in advance? A day in advance?


Thanks.

Astoria is a long ways away against the probable prevailing wind and current. A very rough Guess La to Astoria 700 to 750 miles. A few infamous Capes. Fog is a concern of N California and Oregon. I was looking a boats in California & Oregon. I planned to deliver the boat I bought myself. In the end I chose the boat from Portland.

Few if any ports of refuge offer safe entrance in a westerly.
A Stop in San Francisco?

I brought my boat up to BC from Oregon in June On one hand a trip of a lifetime on the other it was a tough sail for 2 of us against a strong wind nd current. Other boats leaving Astoria at the same time chose to motor. I chose to sail.
If you have enough crew to get a good rest it should be a nice memorable trip.

One error I made was a crew of only two, It was exhausting. Would I do it again? Yes. Would I do it in August? Yes with three of us.

A smarter man than me would plan on motoring.

I guess the question for you is how do you feel about it. If you think its a bad idea you probably wont enjoy it.

49ft boat is a big boat, how well do you know and trust the Skipper and his judgement?

[FatBear]

Thanks for all of the help and advice. I think I'm too old for this and will pass.

49ft boat is a big boat, how well do you know and trust the Skipper and his judgement?

I know nothing about the skipper other than that he owned a boat(s?) in Europe before moving here. My best friend is planning to go and I trust him very much, though he can be a bit more confident than I am at times.

[jkindredpdx]

Our summer comes a bit later than other parts of the country. IMO July, August, and September have the driest and hottest weather...