Jeanne Socrates Oldest Person solo RTW attempt

[Bleemus]

35 knots is nothing to a woman who has been in the Southern Ocean. Double reef and a staysail and point it south.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Bleemus

35 knots is nothing to a woman who has been in the Southern Ocean. Double reef and a staysail and point it south.

If I remember well a 'gale' in NWS language is sustained winds up to 47 knots. The chartlet says 'storm', hence a possibility of over 47 knots sustained winds and associated sea state.

We are not talking 35 knots. And you can't go South in these conditions. Look at the forecast data.

I did not see any window there. It was all bad forecasts.

b.

[Bleemus]

5 meter swell and 30-35 knots on the nose. She will be fine.

[barnakiel]

I had a look at the location mentioned (Cape Blanco) and the timing (Friday).

It looks like there is nothing there for a sailor now. Hope she can dodge to a safe harbour before the train arrives.

This weather, should it eventuate, is a trap.

b.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Bleemus

5 meter swell and 30-35 knots on the nose. She will be fine.

Where I am looking, it says 5.7 meter significant wave and the wind gusting up to 55 knots for a time.

Waves (heights) are believed to be normally distributed only in a long open stretch, not in a circular wx system where many wave trains co-exist.

This translates to some waves closer to or in excess of 10 meters tall. No good.

Looking at the forecast past Friday ... not much chance to make much Southing, if any.

It is not a beauty contest, you can't say 'it will be fine'. I hope she keeps a sharp eye on the forecasts and will act accordingly as updated forecasts roll in.

"In the Southern Ocean" yes maybe no problem but there you are not restrained for space. On the seaboard it is a different game (I think).

To me the forecast looks super nasty. Touching wood.

b.

[JPA Cate]

On the first chart you posted, barnakiel, the storm is shown to be moving to the northwest, and it is well developed, so the wave periods will be somewhat further spaced. I would expect her to loaf along under shortened staysail, and 2 or 3 reefs in the main, slowly working her way south, but staying on the offshore tack for a while. With her ekeing her way south, and the storm moving away, I would expect this to work out okay. She is headed towards winds that are less "on the nose", and soon she will be able to maintain her desired course. The next chart, posted by Bleemus, looked far more benign to me.

It is always scary to think of someone alone out there in the predicted conditions, and the gusts and individual seas are always greater than the predicted averages, so there is real reason to feel concerned, but not terrified, for her. I think we can trust Jeanne to have conservative judgment as to what will keep her safe. [Opinion based on talking with her in Tasmania.]

Ann

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

Don,

Are we looking at different wx data, or am I looking at the wrong part of the world?

See the image attached. Forgive me if I say something stupid. I do not know N Pacific at all.

b.

I am looking at something different, but Friday looks bad in mine too definitely, up to Thursday looks ok, but I'm going to re-check. My WeatherMap app on my phone has been pretty accurate for my neighborhood. It shows fairly mild close or beam reach until Friday and then even down into California it's not so good. Passage Weather shows Friday is not so good but Saturday is worse. 35+ knots on the nose and gusting, big seas, no place to go..no matter how much experience you have, not something to trifle with. Maybe she can tuck into Crescent City to wait out that low approaching, not sure. I'm betting she has it all planned out anyway. She may be past that by then anyway.

[Jim Cate]

Maybe she can tuck into Crescent City to wait out that low approaching, not sure.

I think what she is attempting requires non-stop sailing, but not sure. it's all arbitrary crap IMO, setting such specific "rules" in order to set a "record". I'm quite fond of Jeanne, but question this aspect of her voyaging. Wish her a safe voyage for sure... she's a gutsy and very well centered sailor.

Jim

[Bleemus]

She is on a 38 foot boat. Figure 100- 125 miles a day. If she gets that day of 20 knots on the beam you may get 160. Storm will be moving NE and she will be 500 miles south of her start at a minimum. She will be fine.

I have spent a week beating upwind into 35-40 kts. Not fun but hardly life threatening and I was on a 40 foot trimaran. A Najad is like a Cadillac in comparison.

[Bleemus]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

I think what she is attempting requires non-stop sailing, but not sure. it's all arbitrary crap IMO, setting such specific "rules" in order to set a "record". I'm quite fond of Jeanne, but question this aspect of her voyaging. Wish her a safe voyage for sure... she's a gutsy and very well centered sailor.

Jim

The whole point is too be the oldest person to sail non-stop around the world. If she stops in Crescent City she might as well go back to Victoria.

[Jim Cate]

Originally Posted by Bleemus

The whole point is too be the oldest person to sail non-stop around the world. If she stops in Crescent City she might as well go back to Victoria.

As I said, such arbitrary rules are, well, arbitrary! So, I guess she could restart from Crescent City should she so desire. Nothing magic about starting in Victoria AFAIK... perhaps some personal reason she has.

Jim

[Don C L]

She can't wait out bad weather somewhere? Is anchoring allowed or is it nothing may touch terra firma the whole way?
And so I'm guessing the answer is touch only water the whole way.
Ahh what one will do to set a record.

[Don C L]

Just read Jeanne's blog entry, she is thinking she won't make it to Cape Blanco before Friday, and at least Passage Weather shows the strongest part of the storm is aiming for Cape Blanco Friday/Saturday. Likely she'll pull out the drogues again. Wishing her the best as always.
http://svnereida.com/blog/3766-day2-...t-i-find-a-pin

[DeepFrz]

I don't know about the rules Jeanne is working under but in the Vendee Globe anchoring is fine as long as there is no outside assistance and the skipper does not touch land.

She does have a window of N/NNW winds. It depends on how far south she can get before the next low moves in. The forecast shown was the 96 hr forecast. The 24 and 48 hr surface analysis charts look more favorable.

[Bleemus]

If she doesnt make it to Cape Blanco by Friday she is going too slow. Hope the drouges hold up. Hang in there!