Jeanne Socrates Oldest Person solo RTW attempt

[Don C L]

Passage Weather is by no means the last word, but it does seem to be fairly accurate... looking at Saturday for Jeanne around the Oregon/Cal border
Sailing Weather - Marine Weather Forecasts for Sailors and Adventurers - PassageWeather

[oregonian]

Hello, Jeanne is attempting to set a Guinness world record. Therefore, the Guinness organization is involved and sets the parameters for the voyage. The starting Latitude is set by them and that is why she has chosen Victoria as her starting point. San Francisco is not far enough North. Yes, Anchoring is allowed. I am not familiar enough with all the parameters but most came about because of Sir Robin Knox-Johnstons voyage of 1968-69. I hope this offers some enlightenment as to some of Jeanne's decisions.

[Don C L]

Was checking in at windyty for the Vendee Globe, thought I'd go check Friday and Saturday for Oregon coast and also for Cape Horn. I think I'd rather be at Cape Horn! (at least for Friday and Saturday) Also, at least the wind is at your back there too.
Vendée Globe 2016-2017 Windyty Tracker

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

I had a look at the location mentioned (Cape Blanco) and the timing (Friday).

It looks like there is nothing there for a sailor now. Hope she can dodge to a safe harbour before the train arrives.

This weather, should it eventuate, is a trap.

b.

The harbors are death traps in these conditions. Having just transited that coast in August, I can assure you that the bars are closed and Port Orford, just south of Cape Blanco is an exposed roadstead open to the south. YIKES!

There simply are no safe harbors along this coast in these conditions, including the Columbia River, for small boats. The Umpqua Bar is closed on ebbs alone, for example, in the middle of the summer.

Very dangerous shoreline.

[barnakiel]

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

The harbors are death traps in these conditions. Having just transited that coast in August, I can assure you that the bars are closed and Port Orford, just south of Cape Blanco is an exposed roadstead open to the south. YIKES!

There simply are no safe harbors along this coast in these conditions, including the Columbia River, for small boats. The Umpqua Bar is closed on ebbs alone, for example, in the middle of the summer.

Very dangerous shoreline.

No safe internet cafes between the border and the cape? Oooops.

The forecast shows two Lows to merge and become a major feature around Friday. 982 mbar or thereabouts. Very bad conditions for some 36 hours. Then a 3 days respite and then another possibly bad blow.

How far South do you need to be on this coast at this time of the year to be out of the worst of the weather?

And is this possible and practiced to head out West, pass over the incoming low and then ride South on its back?

I am trying to understand the weather in this area now. It is not quite like North Atlantic. The amount of open water from Japan to Oregon makes a whole world of difference.

In the North Atlantic systems seems to be smaller across and there are countless harbours on the Western seaboard where you just sit, sip and wait.

b.

[Don C L]

Anyone who wants to sail along the cost this time of year should read Jeanne's posts... they are very instructive and you can see right away how exhausting it can be.
Blog | S/V Nereida

[robert sailor]

This area can be a challenge even in the summer,, this is not the easy peasy experience you expect from the mid latitudes, just a different league. She has a well made boat and as long as she has see room she will probably get through it.

[Don C L]

Yeah I think the boat will be fine, I just hope Jeanne gets enough food and rest, and just plain ol' sleep, over the next week! She can't rest because the wind is so erratic and unpredictable for her there, not to mention getting bumped around by seas there. I am sure she has a lot of stamina though, more than I do, I bet!
But I'm still a bit concerned for her in that stretch...

track her here:
http://www.pangolin.co.nz/xtras/yotr...p?ident=KC2IOV

[buzzstar]

I do not know her, and did not know of her before reading this thread, but based upon what I have read since, here and elsewhere, and aside the JSD problem, she sounds like a hearty lady fully prepared and proven to be capable of completing her planned circumnavigation. I doubt she expected weather windows all the way, which not the same as having a hope for them. Go Girl Go!

[Don C L]

I sure don't mean to overwhelm the thread or in any way question Jeanne's abilities... I'd be concerned for anyone trying to sail south along the west coast right now. Here are a couple of shots from windyty of what is predicted for Friday/Saturday for that stretch of coast for those like me who wish her the best and are rooting for her considering what she may be facing soon.

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

How far South do you need to be on this coast at this time of the year to be out of the worst of the weather?.......................
..................................................
I am trying to understand the weather in this area now. It is not quite like North Atlantic. The amount of open water from Japan to Oregon makes a whole world of difference.

b.,

"This time of year" doesn't usually work on this part of the coast. The major features are simple: the HIGH that comes up in the summer and drops south in the winter, allowing low pressure systems to come further south. South of the Oregon border, sometimes, but others have been chased all the way to SF.

That's a "normal" year.

When I sailed in SF for 35+ years, going out past the Golden Gate was not recommended in winter months unless spectacularly calm between storms.

This year has been exacerbated for the past month or more with remnants of Asian storms tracking east across the northern Pacific.

It's a bloody mess this year. Victoria BC recorded the most days without sun in recorded history for October.

OTOH, we squeezed ourselves north from SF from August 8 to Sept. 18th, harbor hopping daysails waiting for calm weather, which we got. Just lucky, but lots of planning on a -day-to-day basis.

[Polux]

Originally Posted by Don C L

I sure don't mean to overwhelm the thread or in any way question Jeanne's abilities... I'd be concerned for anyone trying to sail south along the west coast right now. Here are a couple of shots from windyty of what is predicted for Friday/Saturday for that stretch of coast for those like me who wish her the best and are rooting for her considering what she may be facing soon.

If you know this ignore it, but I see you are using the tracker from the vendee globe. You can use windyty directly....and yes I had saw that. Very bad weather ahead and with wind on the bow.

https://www.windytv.com/?39.552,-8.977,6

[Don C L]

Originally Posted by Polux

If you know this ignore it, but I see you are using the tracker from the vendee globe. You can use windyty directly....and yes I had saw that. Very bad weather ahead and with wind on the bow.

https://www.windytv.com/?39.552,-8.977,6

Yeah not sure what you meant there but maybe this link is better, windytv for the area this weekend:
https://www.windytv.com/?2016-11-18-...684,-121.003,6
+ animate to see it into Saturday... I'll be watching for her blog entries

[robert sailor]

Originally Posted by Don C L

Yeah not sure what you meant there but maybe this link is better, windytv for the area this weekend:
https://www.windytv.com/?2016-11-18-...684,-121.003,6
+ animate to see it into Saturday... I'll be watching for her blog entries

I don't know the distance involved but she could either squeeze over to the far side of this large low and she'd be good to go or hove to and wait a couple of days and she should get a good chance to put on lots of southing before that next low north of her enters the picture. There is normally a bit of a current in that area and it would be against the seas which could add some excitement.

[kmacdonald]

Looks like she is going to get hammered for three or four days.