Jeanne Socrates Oldest Person solo RTW attempt

[Paul Elliott]

Originally Posted by robert sailor

I don't know the distance involved but she could either squeeze over to the far side of this large low and she'd be good to go or hove to and wait a couple of days and she should get a good chance to put on lots of southing before that next low north of her enters the picture. There is normally a bit of a current in that area and it would be against the seas which could add some excitement.

Right now that incoming low is centered about 800 NM west of Nereida. There's no direction she can sail that puts her on the good side of it.

I believe that she is currently seeing light headwinds, and according to her tracker she may have tacked onto starboard (heading closer to shore) because of the wind angle. That's going to change soon, and she will be forced to tack onto port, otherwise she will be sailing due east (not a good place to go with the big winds heading her way). But a port tack takes her into the eye of that low, and 30+ kt winds mid-Friday. Actually, that low looks stretched out north/south, and it's going to cross her position regardless of where she goes.

Things get slightly easier Saturday AM, but the low tightens and shifts north, and by Saturday noon she gets hammered again by strong north winds (and lousy wind angles). Sunday looks better for sailing south, but the seas will be up.

Here's the forecast for Friday night / Saturday morning. Jeanne is near the red "X" and the "Developing Gale" box. Note the 45-knot wind barbs. Seas are forecast to be about 15 ft at her position.



By the way, the timestamp on her tracker is apparently Eastern Standard Time. Subtract three hours to get Pacific Standard Time. The tracker is also missing quite a few of the hourly updates, and I suspect that her reported speed is often not accurate. We can better estimate her speed by measuring the distance between track points and looking at the timestamps.

[EDIT] The tracker just updated and it shows about ten miles sailed in six hours. It also looks like she tacked again, so the distance sailed may have been greater than shown. Still, that's going to be pretty close to the 1.9 kt speed indicated by the tracker.

[robert sailor]

Thanks for that update as I had no idea of exactly where she is/was.

[Paul Elliott]

Here's her tracker: Enable Cookies - GSatTrack
This is supposed to show hourly updates, but a lot of them don't get through.

The last two show her going 2.6 NM in two hours -- a speed of 1.3 kts on an almost due-west course. The latest GRIBS show a south wind of 8 kts, but some of the nearby buoys show more, some less. It's obviously changing out there. The buoys are reporting wave height around 10 feet.

[Don C L]

1.3 knts with a, 8 knot breeze, I bet she's getting some sleep.

[Paul Elliott]

Originally Posted by Don C L

1.3 knts with a, 8 knot breeze, I bet she's getting some sleep.

Hard to say. The gaps in her tracker positions make it difficult to know what she's doing. I do know that it's hard to sail in light air / big seas, but from my comfy chair it looks like she could be going faster. I think right now she's got wind 10 kts from S, and seas 10 ft from WNW.

[kmacdonald]

Jeanne just posted to her blog.

[Paul Elliott]

And her tracker has updated. Much better speed and course: 5.8 kts, WSW.

[robert sailor]

Right direction

[kmacdonald]

Looks like she is in 25 to 35kt winds. Its going to let up early Sunday.

[kmacdonald]

It looks like she is trying to get west of the low. She could ride the backside south if she gets west of it. If not she will be in the worst of it. Does she have a weather router?

[Paul Elliott]

Originally Posted by kmacdonald

It looks like she is trying to get west of the low. She could ride the backside south if she gets west of it. If not she will be in the worst of it. Does she have a weather router?

There is no way she can sail to the west side of the low. That low is moving towards her (to the east) and then it heads north. She can't go fast or far enough to make much of a difference. She will be in some more heavy wind and seas tomorrow (Saturday) morning, then after the low heads north Saturday night she will have more moderate westerly winds which should let her sail south again.

I think she is getting advice over the radio, but I don't think she is using an actual WX router.

[pdxsailordiver]

COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE BLANCO OR TO PT. ST. GEORGE CA OUT 10 NM-
213 PM PST FRI NOV 18 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT EXCEPT S 20 TO 25 KT WITHIN 5 NM OF
BROOKINGS SOUTHWARD. WIND WAVES 6 TO 9 FT...BUILDING TO 9 TO
12 FT. SWELL NW 4 FT AT 11 SECONDS...BUILDING TO SW 7 TO 8 FT AT
11 SECONDS. RAIN.
.SAT...NORTHERN PORTION...S WIND 30 KT...RISING TO GALES 35 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. BROOKINGS SOUTHWARD...S WIND 20 TO 25 KT...
BECOMING 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 45 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. WIND WAVES 6 TO 9 FT. SW SWELL 9 FT AT
11 SECONDS...BUILDING TO W 12 FT AT 12 SECONDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NORTHERN PORTION...S GALES 35 KT... EASING TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BROOKINGS SOUTHWARD...S WIND 30 KT...BECOMING
20 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 45 KT UNTIL
EARLY MORNING. WIND WAVES 7 TO 10 FT. SWELL W 14 TO 16 FT AT
13 SECONDS. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 TO 25 KT...EASING TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WIND WAVES 6 TO 7 FT...SUBSIDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SW SWELL 14 FT...SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT...BACKING TO S 5 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WIND WAVES 3 FT. SWELL W 9 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 5 KT...BACKING TO NE IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND WAVES
2 FT OR LESS...BECOMING 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. W SWELL 7 TO 8 FT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 5 KT...BACKING TO S AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND
WAVES 3 FT IN THE EVENING...BECOMING 2 FT OR LESS. W SWELL 6 FT...
SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 20 KT...BECOMING 15 KT IN THE EVENING...
THEN...BECOMING SW 5 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WIND WAVES 4 TO 5 FT...
BECOMING 2 FT OR LESS. SWELL W 5 FT... BUILDING TO W 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT...BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WIND WAVES 2 FT OR LESS..

Sent from my SM-T710 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[Bleemus]

Stop panicking people. Its only a gale not a hurricane! Have you never sailed in 35 knot winds before? Relax.

[Paul Elliott]

I don't think we're panicking. I'm not. Just reporting the conditions and Jeanne's likely options.

She just updated her blog. She's getting through this stretch pretty well.

[Paul Elliott]

Here's a text forecast for the southern Oregon waters 150-250 NM offshore. Jeanne's currently about 230 NM due west of Coos Bay. She will probably be south of Point St. George by Sunday.

PZZ915-191100-
FLORENCE, OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE BETWEEN 150 NM AND 250 NM
OFFSHORE-
151 PM PST FRI NOV 18 2016

GALE WARNING


TONIGHT
S WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...BECOMING S TO SW 20 TO 30 KT...
THEN...BECOMING S 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT
S WINDS 30 TO 40 KT...BECOMING SW. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 TO
23 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SAT NIGHT
W TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 11 TO
16 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SUN
W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 10 TO 13 FT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

SUN NIGHT
NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

MON
W TO SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 7 TO 9 FT.

MON NIGHT
W TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

TUE
W TO SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO 15 FT.

TUE NIGHT
W TO SW WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 TO 18
FT.

WED
W TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT.

WED NIGHT
W TO SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.

Here's a link to these forecasts: National Weather Service