Mono in distress

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Not sure where 'this part of the world' is....

Sure , in some parts you can see weather systems coming... especially when they approach across a big slab of ocean.

When they come off the land as was the case with the OP they can go from nothing to nasty very very quickly. The tasman is a case in point as is the southern argentine coast. You do not get a lot of notice that things are going to turn to custard and if you are in mid Tasman you just have to live with what you are sent.

It will be interesting to see what happens to the low over NSW just now... Latest Colour Mean Sea-Level Pressure Analysis

Nothing nasty on any forecasts I have seen and yes I have looked at Predictwind.
I wonder why BoM only do forecasts out to 4 days? Colour Forecast map for next 4 days

Hi El Pingunio, but you could see that low coming, maybe not to the extent that it did. The coast was getting smashed for days and we knew it was coming in advance. How did the other boat that turned north know? Correct me if I'm wrong, im happy to be wrong here.

Yes the bom only does forecasts out to four days for obvious reasons but 2 days warning via modern comms could of put that boat in a different spot, 280nm further north would of made a big difference, a boat that size should be able to do decent miles comfortably with the strong winds, even 24hours may of made a difference. There was some notice. Thats the great thing about modern comms you can check the weather very regularly.
Did they have the ability to check weather, I know they had hf , did they have sailmail or predictawind etc?




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[bill good]

Detailed voice weather forecasts by BOM each hour on HF radio to cover all seas is available for all as a help when operations are offshore.

Regards

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by daletournier

It always ends up here, a knocking of technology. No ones saying soley rely on gribs etc, they are tools and often good tools , just like chart plotters are tools. I wonder if old sailors ridiculed that modern technology called a depth sounder.
Naah.. string and a weight with a blob of wax on the bottoms been around for yonks.. as has the string with knots called a speed log.
The weather reports in this part of the world are pretty accurate, and tools like predictawind can nearly 100% of the time see a big ass low coming.

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Get off yer Milk and drink yer Hoss..
I'm stating my choices not knocking technology.. and pointing out it has limitations in some areas..
Stay in your part of the world and you'll do just fine.. fancy being entertained try the Med or the Biscay..

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Get off yer Milk and drink yer Hoss..
I'm stating my choices not knocking technology.. and pointing out it has limitations in some areas..
Stay in your part of the world and you'll do just fine.. fancy being entertained try the Med or the Biscay..

Boatie, no need to be condescending, ive sailing quite abit and am very aware of localized weather such as the squalls I was experiencing of west sumatra last year, or the not so predictable weather I had of papua 2015 ,BUT these big lows coming through here are a different story.

Yes some may over rely on technology and some are just to anti it and fail to utilize the great benefits.

I agree with your statements regarding swell ,clouds etc and also take note, but I still use weather forecasts like everyone else that carry on about how poor they are.

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[daletournier]

Oh and btw ive been known to use a lead on string for depths in the past :-) ...another tool.

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[boatman61]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Oh and btw ive been known to use a lead on string for depths in the past :-) ...another tool.

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Don't be so serious.. I was yanking your chain..
You'll know when I'm being condescending..

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Don't be so serious.. I was yanking your chain..
You'll know when I'm being condescending..

:-) ....im seriously crawling around running wires.....when im in charge of yacht design world wide things will be different :-)

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[boatman61]

Originally Posted by daletournier

:-) ....im seriously crawling around running wires.....when im in charge of yacht design world wide things will be different :-)

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Do I ever know where your coming from..

[JPA Cate]

Let's play a little with what we've been told so far. Lo was forecast to develop on the trough and come offshore. No one on earth knew how deep it would go and so fast, too.

Maybe the difference was the other guys were experienced with the crossing and familiar with the east coast cutoff lows. The ones who lost the boat are pegged as people wanting to complete a circumnavigation. We didn't hear about the cut off lows till we'd spent some time in NSW. So one possible difference is just that one skipper said to him/herself something like "if this lo deepens, we'd better be to the north of here, above 30 deg S." And the other skipper, "well, we'll plan to lie to the sea anchor if it gets unpleasant, a tactic we've used with success in the past." And, yes, I suppose sliding down a wave backwards could have buggered ('scuse me) their rudder.

Another thing, the skipper who went north may have a far more weatherly boat than the one that was abandoned, so the other guy may have felt forced to adopt the sea anchor route. Without beating this particular drum too long, let me just say I think the ability to go well to windward is one that I personally think is very important, and some boats are lots better at it than others. And, I want to say that in the interest of "not being there", we have beat into 45 knots all day and much of the night, to move away from a cyclone's predicted path and into a hurricane hole. It would have been a lot harder in a boat that didn't point as well.

I would have thought the high seas forecasts would have given a fairly early alert to head north, but timing is everything! or almost, because weatherly capability could also be the crux of the issue. I don't know if the vessel that was lost even had a useable staysail. Their headsail was rather shredded. Brings up the possibility of using sails that were too old.

Ann

[tunnelvision]

6 pages in and nobody suggested buying a catamaran?

[JPA Cate]

Originally Posted by tunnelvision

6 pages in and nobody suggested buying a catamaran?

That's right, because they had what they wanted, or the best compromise they could afford. Nothing to discuss there.

Ann

[fxykty]

Originally Posted by tunnelvision

6 pages in and nobody suggested buying a catamaran?

Nothing to do with type of boat, just speculation about downloading new weather forecasts after departure and using that information to prepare for and/or avoid developing heavy weather.

[tunnelvision]

Originally Posted by Ann T. Cate

That's right, because they had what they wanted, or the best compromise they could afford. Nothing to discuss there.

Ann

Just a little satire pointing out what usually happens in the multihull section!

[svseachange]

Ann, your analysis is spot on. When are you heading up the coast? Hope our paths cross this year.

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by Ann T. Cate

That's right, because they had what they wanted, or the best compromise they could afford. Nothing to discuss there.

Ann

True. And I imagine the same could be said for owners of multi's that somehow end up in trouble too.

But for some reason, whenever a multihull gets in trouble, no matter how, where or why, there's the same pack of ....... who ALWAYS claim that what ever caused the problem was a result of some fundamental flaw multihulls all have. Even if they have to invent that flaw, and fabricate imaginary evidence...

Is it jealousy or what?