Prices not going down??

[rsementi]

Originally Posted by geoleo

Dear Sailors, The $ dollar is supposed to be "KING" stocks have collasped, interest rates at all time lows, gold is down, the dollar is up UP on all currencies worldwide , the euro is headed for par with the dollar, the pound is way down too, oil is down 53% in 2 weeks. Yet marine stuff is same old high price. Defenders big sale is pathetic usually offering around 10-15% off a fake list price. Used sailboats are still way up there too and asking prices are the same. Why is this ? Is every seller hoping beyond hope OR is their business still doing great with old prices?

The dollar is weakening and will continue to since they’re spending $2 trillion over the normal over spending and there’s talk of spending more. How? Debt spending, which means they’ll print more dollars, further wearing its buying power. Gold is way up by the way. Almost $1900 today vs 1200 in January.
And don’t worry, yacht prices will crash too. Be patient

[Island Time O25]

I got my first boat in 2006. It was not until about 5-6 years later that the yard I use for Winter storage and haulouts/launches started raising their rates almost annually. And last several years somewhat significantly.

I hope they either at least stop for a few years or even roll back, although the loss of several baotyards nearby does not help us toward that wish. Granted, the yard is a working yard (a rarity these days) and the boat owners are mostly DIYer type working stiffs. No cats or fancy boats over about 38ft, no drafts over 6' as there is no travellift and all moving is done by trailers.

I'm sure there will be some shake out as financially marginal owners will walk away from their low end cost boats. But those boats will still take up valuable space at the yard until disposed of.

[Island Time O25]

Originally Posted by Happ

You are absolutely incorrect. My grandfather came through Ellis Island and he was processed and left. All in the same day.

Perhaps he had no symptoms of any communicable desease or by that time Ellis Island processing became a pure formality. Although the idea of a medical check up is still alive and well, at least theoretically, with the Medical Examination (Form I-693) required of all immigrants prior to granting them permanent residency status.

[Island Time O25]

Originally Posted by CaptainJohn49

You are obviously not a UNION man. Unions would rather choke a business to death and see it go out of business then take a reduction in wage. Ask any former union worker in Pennsylvania, Michigan of Minnesota what happened to their job.
Now unions have found the perfect employer - governments.

Exactly. That's why numbers of unionized positions dwindled in the last 50 years while most newly created positions went ununionized.

Unions were a luxury that US economy could afford during it's World hegemony days most of the 20th century. Today, they are an anachronism, like horses and buggies of the 19c.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by rsementi

The dollar is weakening and will continue to since they’re spending $2 trillion over the normal over spending and there’s talk of spending more. How? Debt spending, which means they’ll print more dollars, further wearing its buying power. Gold is way up by the way. Almost $1900 today vs 1200 in January.
And don’t worry, yacht prices will crash too. Be patient

The dollar isn't weakening.

In spite of all the spending, which currency would you prefer over it?

The strength is relative, and based on perception.

[Pat Ross]

Originally Posted by HankOnthewater

Yes, above posts are correct. Remember, virtually all the boats on the market now, were listed before Covid-19. Reality will be that actual prices will be much less than that.
And as always, brokers like to list boats at high prices, and not divulge the real selling prices. It will take a while for that to change, possible never. Brokers will always list boats at market price plus a few $000. And boatowners...... selling a boat at 50% less then they purchased it for? They are likely to try to get close to their purchase price as possible, and as time moves one, the actual possible selling price will reduce each month.

Like many people I have followed listing and selling prices, when possible. In the USA I find what you said to be accurate.



However I wonder if anyone has info or documentation for this also occurring in Europe? I ask this as I am interested in several boats there but do not know how similar Germany and other European countries function in regards to listing and actual selling price.


Knowledgeable feedback appreciated.


Pat

[slug]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

The dollar isn't weakening.

In spite of all the spending, which currency would you prefer over it?

The strength is relative, and based on perception.

The dollar is strong

Be nice if it falls a bit to make American goods and services a bit cheaper

Also very much global debt is denominated in dollars

Countries will have a hard time servicing debt if the dollar stays strong

[Tacmed]

Why would prices go down..... Yacht sales are up in my area.. (escape pods)
Local marine store said thier sales are actually up, most likely because people have more time to work on thier boats whilst in self isolation.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by slug

The dollar is strong

Be nice if it falls a bit to make American goods and services a bit cheaper

Also very much global debt is denominated in dollars

Countries will have a hard time servicing debt if the dollar stays strong

All true.

[GBR134]

IMHO Older cruisers are stupidly cheap compared to their newer brothers and as a sweeping generalisation in the cruiser market sail better but have worse accommodation.

I may be oot of date but for years the Uk 'parts' market was doomed by ludicrously long supply chains for small volume producers making retail margins on unrealistic RRPs of @ 33%. Retailers had little room to cut prices and cover overheads. Plus the small parts market has a relatively inelastic demand curve. Typically you buy shackles etc because you need them and not because you see them on 'special'.

I don't think any part of the leisure marine market has ever been a route to riches.

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by Happ

Sorry to tell you the money is gone. Market value is based on what the perceived value of a stock is at that moment. To prove this point if you bought a stock at $100 and you still own it a month later but you can only sell it for $90 nothing has changed other tan the perceived value.

If you were talking about the Commodities Futures Market you would be correct because it is a zero sum game. If you buy a contract someone had to sell it to you. When the contract goes down a dollar the the person who owns the contract has a loss on their account and the seller has an equal profit.

FINALLY another person who views stock prices as I do.
Whew, I thought I was alone!!!

[hpeer]

My 2¢. We will see another market bottom in a couple of weeks. The market is driven to some extent by human emotions, feelings. In the next 2 weeks the USA death total will climb greatly. And about that same time India will be seeing the virus hit hard.

So my prediction (2¢) is that the combined bad news will crush people emotionally and that will reflect in the market with a second bottom. After that we will start to climb back out. Maybe stagger back out would be a better phrase. I probably think the recovery will be a little stronger than others think. We just have another dip to get through first.


Lock down in New Delhi.

[DumnMad]

Originally Posted by Happ

You are absolutely incorrect. My grandfather came through Ellis Island and he was processed and left. All in the same day.

If you are on a boat for several weeks you've done your quarantine. Either you are all clean or none are clean.

Air travel is the problem. One unclean person gets on a plane and a few hours later hoards of unclean get off in another country.
Airports had to adapt and scan for explosive devices now they will adapt and scan for viruses.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by hpeer

My 2¢. We will see another market bottom in a couple of weeks. ... I probably think the recovery will be a little stronger than others think. We just have another dip to get through first.

I think I agree, IF we get decent results from the lockdown and one or more of the currently-interesting treatments are broadly successful at lowering the numbers of critically-ill patients.

[GordMay]

Greetings and belated welcome aboard the CF, plusguy.
Greetings and welcome aboard the CF BlueB