Prices not going down??

[rabbi]

Originally Posted by Steve_C

I thought this was supposed to be a discussion about the current pricing of Vessels due to current economic situation. I am very interested to see and hear observations concerning the impacts to the market.

I am NOT really interested in hearing long arguments about Bitcoin vs Gold vs other currencies. Perhaps you guys who are should start a new thread about this. That way the title of the thread would reflect the discussion and those of us not interested can avoid it!

Thanks!!!

no worries, we lost the thread starter long ago

[slug]

Originally Posted by Steve_C

I thought this was supposed to be a discussion about the current pricing of Vessels due to current economic situation. I am very interested to see and hear observations concerning the impacts to the market.

I am NOT really interested in hearing long arguments about Bitcoin vs Gold vs other currencies. Perhaps you guys who are should start a new thread about this. That way the title of the thread would reflect the discussion and those of us not interested can avoid it!

Thanks!!!

Yah

The goldbugs and bitheads have derailed the thread

[Happ]

Originally Posted by geoleo

Dear Sailors, The $ dollar is supposed to be "KING" stocks have collasped, interest rates at all time lows, gold is down, the dollar is up UP on all currencies worldwide , the euro is headed for par with the dollar, the pound is way down too, oil is down 53% in 2 weeks. Yet marine stuff is same old high price. Defenders big sale is pathetic usually offering around 10-15% off a fake list price. Used sailboats are still way up there too and asking prices are the same. Why is this ? Is every seller hoping beyond hope OR is their business still doing great with old prices?

Oil just jumped 25% last night and today up another 5%. Gold is up as it ideally does when the economy is in trouble. The marine products have a cost to manufacture so prices are somewhat stable on products. The used boats will start dropping when the first owners want / need to sell. Maybe they have timed out. Maybe they have don their cruising. Maybe they don’t want the monthly expense and maintenance any longer and are willing to sell to just pay off the loan. It’s just a matter of time. Don’t believe boat prices are like the stock market where they move up and down by the day. Right now it would be very hard to buy a boat anyway. Most marinas and yards are closed. How would you travel to see the boat or survey it. Everyday that goes by will increase the pressure on those that need or want to sell. Boats are not a necessity.

[pt49]

Originally Posted by Happ

Everyday that goes by will increase the pressure on those that need or want to sell. Boats are not a necessity.

Boats are only a necessity to those living on them who have no other options, and marina's housing them.

Boat parts and hardware are only a necessity if needed to keep a boat afloat.

Otherwise a boat is a liability, and certainly not an investment, unless it is being used to make a clear profit... carrying cargo, fishing etc.

[timb7734]

Inflation is coming, boats will hold or appreciate, sure there may be some initial low balls from estates or others who have to sell, but in a matter of time there will be way too much money chasing finite amount of goods. Annual government budget/spending of US = 4.5 trillion, we just gave the Fed the power to liberally loan another 4.5 trillion, and passed a 2.2 trillion stimulus. This country will be awash in liquidity.

On the other side boat values will be flatter relative to inflation. Remember the 15k house that is now 450k? The 4,500 Chevy now 60K? The 200k boat that is now 2.5M!

[GBR134]

Off topic I know but - I’m a simple and poorly educated soul, I still can’t find anyone who can explain to me why a Bitcoin is worth more than a black tulip bulb!

[CarinaPDX]

Having beaten the financial world into submission we might look at this from a material point of view. The world is now producing significantly less than just a few months ago, which means there is less wealth. Governments giving people money is not a deux ex maquina solution - it will have to be paid for through either future taxes or inflation - and thus the loss of wealth might be disguised but it is nonetheless real. The loss of wealth in 2007-2008 pretty much wrecked the market for older cruising boats, since banks won't loan to buy them and potential buyers had less wealth to pay for them. The newer used markets were also affected but less drastically. This time I expect the newer used boats to take a price hit again, but how much is anyone's guess. If the general loss of wealth, or continued travel bans, causes the charter companies go under (or even if they survive, if the charters don't recover) all of those boats are going to land back to the buyers with unpaid loans. And with the loss of wealth there are going to be many that need to unload them to get out from under the loans. That is potentially a lot of boats under 5 years old that could come on the market. My guess (and just a guess) is that there will be some real bargains as this plays out in the coming months, at least for buyers with cash. Given the likelihood that economic recovery will take some time to happen I don't expect the opportunities to only be available briefly, so just wait until it plays out a bit and use the time to pare down the potential designs. OTOH there are a lot of very good older cruising boats that are available now for a bargain and they don't have a lot more to fall.

I can't resist one more BitCoin comment. Soon the BC will stop being mined and the total number of BCs will be fixed going forward, which is part of the attraction as scarcity is guaranteed. The other side of that is that it may lose its pre-eminent position in crypto-currency; the inability to expand the supply as needed will make competitors more attractive. Milton Friedman became a major economist as a result of his studies of money supply and the economy. The incredible growth of the US economy in the last half of the 19th century was at least enabled by the 1849 gold discovery and the rapid expansion of the money supply as a result. Conversely limiting or contraction of the money supply retards growth, which happens in gold-based systems when gold production doesn't increase as fast as desired economic growth. If crypto-currencies were to become the de facto currency BitCoin would be the worst choice - which is not a secret to any economist. I would encourage all of the BC speculators to speculate what kind of future a currency with a fixed quantity has once it is no longer "minted".

Greg

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Chotu

Does anyone else see Bitcoin as a currency or does everyone view it as an investment?
I see it as a currency that is sometimes awkward to spend and subject to a lot of volatility.
I mean, it wasn't created as an investment tool. It was created to be a digital currency.

Indeed.
The domain name "bitcoin.org" was registered on August 18, 2008. On 31 October 2008, a link to a paper authored by Satoshi Nakamoto titled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System”* was posted to a cryptography mailing list. Nakamoto implemented the bitcoin software as open-source code, and released it in January 2009. Nakamoto's identity remains unknown

* “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System” ~ by Satoshi Nakamoto
“A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through afinancial institution ...
... What is needed is an electronic payment system based on cryptographic proof instead of trust,allowing any two willing parties to transact directly with each other without the need for a trustedthird party ...”
* ➥ https://bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf

[Singularity]

Perhaps this is better suited for the joke or down-under thread, but:

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by pt49

Boats are only a necessity to those living on them who have no other options, and marina's housing them.

Boat parts and hardware are only a necessity if needed to keep a boat afloat.

Otherwise a boat is a liability, and certainly not an investment, unless it is being used to make a clear profit... carrying cargo, fishing etc.

True but as a liveaboard, the argument can also be made that it is a pretty canny investment,if living on a yacht is your goal not just financially but in terms of life satisfaction.

Assuming a + 50' yacht cost around $10-15k a week to charter then $120-180k per year on boat acquisition cost should be factored.

Multiply by 10 years and you have a far more meaningful return over the long term

[pt49]

Originally Posted by GBR134

Off topic I know but - I’m a simple and poorly educated soul, I still can’t find anyone who can explain to me why a Bitcoin is worth more than a black tulip bulb!

Sounds racist to me.

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by pt49

Sounds racist to me.

You need to read a little history to understand the reference. In 1630s Netherlands there was a tulip bulb mania. It is considered the first recorded speculative bubble.

[pt49]

Originally Posted by CarinaPDX

I can't resist one more BitCoin comment. Soon the BC will stop being mined and the total number of BCs will be fixed going forward, which is part of the attraction as scarcity is guaranteed. The other side of that is that it may lose its pre-eminent position in crypto-currency; the inability to expand the supply as needed will make competitors more attractive.
Greg

Wrong... the final bitcoin is unlikely to be mined until around the year 2140, unless the bitcoin network protocol is changed in between now and then.
Every 4 years the mining rewards halve, currently miners get 12.5 BTC each time a block is rewarded... about every 10 minutes.

At the current price of US$7,000 that is $87,500... or $12.6 million each day that miners are earning.
Most of the BTC that is mined is sold to pay for the electricity to run the equipment and pay for maintenance staff and replace aging equipment.

The next "halving" occurs about 12th May this year... in 5 weeks time. The mining reward then drops to 6.25 BTC per block. This will have a dramatic effect on miners, obviously. It is anticipated that it will also have a dramatic effect on BTC price, based on the 2 previous halvings.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by pt49

Wrong... the final bitcoin is unlikely to be mined until around the year 2140, unless the bitcoin network protocol is changed in between now and then.
Every 4 years the mining rewards halve, currently miners get 12.5 BTC each time a block is rewarded... about every 10 minutes.
At the current price of US$7,000 that is $87,500... or $12.6 million each day that miners are earning.
Most of the BTC that is mined is sold to pay for the electricity to run the equipment and pay for maintenance staff and replace aging equipment.

OK, what is the percentage profit (using the above figures)?
Put another way, currently at what BT price does the current mining technology become unprofitable?

Presumably mining costs increase as the remaining number of un-mined BC decreases (??)

[CarinaPDX]

OK, I misunderstood that. Interesting to see how that plays out. I was probably confusing it with another currency.

Greg