Prices not going down??

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Sometimes I over think and over analyze. Don’t know about this time. There is a LOT going on.... I don’t know how to integrate this into a cohesive theory. I’m just saying there are more factors at play than discussed on MSM. It could swing either way.

Exactly how I feel Howard. Too many moving parts. No one knows for sure what the right answers are. Most of us, from the leaders and experts to the average citizen, is doing our best, and for the best of intentions.

But what are our red lines? There are other values that we supposedly live for. People apparently go to war -- give their lives -- to protect the freedoms we think we have in our societies. When is the cure worse than the disease?

Two weeks ago I think if we polled the people of Canada and the USA, we'd come up with some red lines that we've now easily blown past. What are today's red lines? And will we blow past these in another two weeks when it all gets exponentially worse -- and it WILL be exponentially worse by then.

Here in "free" Canada our government just got beaten back in their plan to "give the government sweeping new powers for up to 21 months to unilaterally spend, borrow and tax Canadians without seeking Parliament's approval." Liberty won this round, but what happens in two weeks?

Look, I really do get that this is an incredibly serious disease. Anyone who flippantly compares it to influenza is someone who doesn't understand basic epidemiology (or math ). I don't know what the right answers are -- no one does.

I just feel that with each successive crises (9/11, SARS, Great Recession, MERS, wave after wave of extreme weather events, and now COVID-19), the authoritarian tenancies that we see on the rise nearly everywhere are just loving it.

When does the frog boil?

[capn_billl]

Originally Posted by Chotu

Interesting viewpoint. I actually have the opposite view even as a fiercely independent person who is against most things government.

I think we should have done exactly what they did in Wuhan. It's not easy to accept that individual suffering is better for the greater good, but it's the only way to win this one. I'd happily spend a couple months in a single room if it meant we'd be free of this virus. I'm all for martial law and total loss of individual freedom during these next couple months if it means we can win more quickly and less people die.

This is a temporary situation. The time for debate and checks and balances is later, once we prevail.

The problem is the word "temporary", we are still paying the "Temporary income tax" designed to pay for WW1 war debts.

Once a "right" is gone, it is no longer a right. These freedoms are never coming back.

[Steve_C]

BVI Yacht Sales has been listing cats all morning on this site. They are asking pretty much full normal retail, probably trying to sell before all of the other companies flood the market. It is actually very sad to see for so many reasons. It will be interesting to follow as things develop.

[wolfgal]

Originally Posted by Steve_C

BVI Yacht Sales has been listing cats all morning on this site. They are asking pretty much full normal retail, probably trying to sell before all of the other companies flood the market. It is actually very sad to see for so many reasons. It will be interesting to follow as things develop.

yes...

and it is curious how most hold cash so to catch the upside of a market crash when others (the crazy ones who prefer to REALLY enjoy life, with less, granted...) hold cash with an eye on a sailboat!

let's just hope that the cruising-way-of-life will still be possible once all of those moving parts settle into a new grind and we get to the "manageable side" of all of this.

given my personal definition of freedom and what i am experiencing here right now, my feeling is that certain high-grade definitions of freedom (those of long-distance cruisers as opposed to landlubbers) may be infringed upon in all sorts of ways... hope not.

[hpeer]

Mike,

One quick comment.

People apparently go to war -- give their lives -- to protect the freedoms we think we have in our societies.

“Freedom” as an excuse for war is a new idea. Lots of wars fought for other concepts, look at the crusades. I think we go to war to kill other people, sufficient justification in itself.

But let’s hold this conversation for a cockpit fight. Not to derail the thread further.

[wolfgal]

back on topic a bit..., the OP asked if prices would go down:

my feeling is that our currencies are and will be drastically devalued/debased and will, generally speaking, buy less as this pans out. i imagine that this will initially be because of all the printing and bail outs, the changes in what is available to the market and what is fundamental to people...
after that, i think it will have a lot to do with policy, how the higher ups manage it all, how they manage us... (so you might want to hold onto your bug-out-boat for that part of it all)

i do believe there will be some great prices on boats here and there, but this will most likely be due to personal hardship... , which is sometimes tough for those who have deep respect for sailors and the sailing community.

another thing:

Howard and Mike mentioned how all of this has so many/too many moving parts and how what is happening is too huge for really any of us to hold in our minds at once. to be able to grasp the fact that we-just-cannot-grasp those moving parts is already progress!

on that thought, i came across this article on complexity systems as applied to the current situation and find it interesting:

https://dailyreckoning.com/complex-s...markets-crash/



wolfie

[Steve_C]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

Howard and Mike mentioned how all of this has so many/too many moving parts and how what is happening is too huge for really any of us to hold in our minds at once. to be able to grasp the fact that we-just-cannot-grasp those moving parts is already progress!

on that thought, i came across this article on complexity systems as applied to the current situation and find it interesting:

https://dailyreckoning.com/complex-s...markets-crash/


wolfie

It is very interesting and relevant! If you can remove emotion from your viewpoint its all fascinating. It will truly create immense opportunity for some and immense heartache for others!

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

...Howard and Mike mentioned how all of this has so many/too many moving parts and how what is happening is too huge for really any of us to hold in our minds at once. to be able to grasp the fact that we-just-cannot-grasp those moving parts is already progress!

on that thought, i came across this article on complexity systems as applied to the current situation and find it interesting:

https://dailyreckoning.com/complex-s...markets-crash/

Good one wolfie. States the challenge well. This is why I think we all need to double-check our often simplistic responses to this complex problem of Covid-19.

[Island Time O25]

Originally Posted by robert sailor

Not sure how you square this since to my knowledge the so called Spanish flue actually saw its beginning in the USA.

Regardless of where the Ground Zero for the flu was it was fueled by worldwide movements of millions of people. Not just the troops but the civilian populations were widely uprooted as well. Besides the Russian Revolution and Civil War you had uprisings and Communes elsewhere in Europe. Plus many localized (and not so localized) epidemics of typhys, dysentery, cholera, etc.

No wonder there was a great worldwide political pushback in the 1920s and 1930s away from open borders to nationalism, "my country ahead of others" and similar movements. Similar to anti-globalist sentiment that have been brewing in the political air for a while. And not just in US but in Europe, Asia and OZ.

Globalization does not come without high costs. The problem is that the benefits of globalization go mostly to one group while the negatives are distributed more widely. Including the ease with which this virus is spreading.

I have read somewhere (forget where) that the modern concept of a "visa" (obtained in advance) to enter a country came about after WWI. Prior to that the country's passport was the equivalent of a worldwide visa for entry purposes as it testified that the holder's own gov't vetted him or her and found the holder an upstanding enough citizen to be allowed to visit other countries. So that upon entering a foreign country only a stamp was needed at the border and there were no visas as we know them today. And that felons, debtors, vagabonds, etc. were rarely if ever issued passports and had to rely on forged ones. It all changed after WWI.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

bi do believe there will be some great prices on boats here and there, but this will most likely be due to personal hardship... , which is sometimes tough for those who have deep respect for sailors and the sailing community.

Even before this pandemic, there have been more boats available - mostly old ones - as boomers age out of the activity.

A depression or slow recovery will no doubt put more 'younger' boats on the market too. Their prices will be determined by who's still got disposable funds to spend on toys, or are selling up to cast off.

There WILL be some good deals. Patience is required.

[Island Time O25]

Also there would some movement of owners of older boats moving up to newish boats and selling their old ones on the cheap, so as not to carry more then one boat. These now really cheap older boats may just be too plentiful to sell at any price. But would be a great opportunity for someone just starting out thier boat ownership dreams. If enough of them can be found. Which I personally doubt given the rapidly rising ongoing costs and hassles of boat ownership. After all the dockage fees don't discriminate between 2020 boat and 1980 one.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by hpeer

......

It strikes me India is doing next to nothing and other states like Pakistan and Malaysia and Bangladesh will also not flatten the curve, but try to get through the storm with as little economic damage as possible.

....

Not sure why you are implying that Malaysia is doing nothing. I'm sitting here in week 2 of a nationwide and enforced shutdown. About 5 minutes ago I had a knock on my boat to get my daily temperature taken. Malaysia acted far quicker than the majority of the US states and there are no government officials saying lets open up the economy by Easter so I can get reelected. Of course Easter just isn't that big a deal here.
Malaysia made a big screwup in having a large religious multiple day gathering of 12 to 16 thousand people at the end of Feb. That resulted in the Tabligh cluster of 963 confirmed cases. Malaysia data can be seen here
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...as-virus-bites

They also have experience and infrastructure still setup for the SARS epidemic a few years ago.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

and it is curious how most hold cash so to catch the upside of a market crash when others (the crazy ones who prefer to REALLY enjoy life, with less, granted...) hold cash with an eye on a sailboat!

Just luck on our part but
- A few years back life created a situation where it didn't make sense to keep the boat, so we sold it.
- This past year we were looking at 1-3yr until we move to full retirement and were casually looking at boats for that transition.
- In preparation, we had been setting aside cash (Mostly CDs but effectively the same), so we could pick up a boat and carry us through 3-5yrs (to young to pull out 401k money without some hassles so the market based money is staying right where it is).

If we can pick up a boat for half the expected price (as of a month ago), that means we effectively could make a very nice return on that cash or possibly we upgrade to a newer/nicer boat than planned.

On the one hand, I wouldn't claim any special knowledge...but then again, there's the old saying that luck favors the prepared.

[Island Time O25]

I believe we overthink the problem with the market crashes. It's like looking at the house of cards and debating which event may or may not trigger its falling apart. Without even thinking about the fundamental question - why are we building/relying on that house of cards, when we should know better.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

I believe we overthink the problem with the market crashes. It's like looking at the house of cards and debating which event may or may not trigger its falling apart. Without even thinking about the fundamental question - why are we building/relying on that house of cards, when we should know better.

Absolutely!...BUT I would add most under think or underestimate the consequences due to a positivity bias, or social and academic conditioning.

I fail to see how we get this V shape recovery or any real recovery for many years, this isnt just the financial system imploding this time its the real economy coming to a halt globally, taking the fundamentally flawed financial system with it.

The virus wasn't predictable, the financial collapse was. Those that believe this is just another recession haven't put enough effort into understanding what's happening and how we got to here. Those that saw it coming did so because they looked, it wasnt hard to see.

The money that is and will be printed is mind blowing, wall street was bailed out last time ,this time everything is going to get bailed out, the central banks are going to attempt to print their way out of a huge deflationary event. In order to save the financial system and the real economy, governments will sacrifice the dollar, unless you believe printing infinite amounts of dollars is consequence free......history suggests this isnt so.

Will this pass ? of course it will , it always does, is there going to be more pain than normal? absolutely, this isnt your run of the mill recession that some need to believe.

Will boats get cheaper? definitely, the world's going on sale and that includes boats. Most never saved for a rainy day, lots of "stuff" will need to be sold.

Its interesting, although I've been expecting this and have positioned my self well (I hope) I'm surprised at how I'm viewing it. I'm definitely not happy that I may make some money out of this, I'm sad for all my friends that are going to suffer eg. My old business that I built closed down yesterday, probably wont reopen, a good friend took $30 for the day in her shop yesterday, another good friend is most likely going to lose is farm which is used as security on a business debt...thetes millions of these people.

I like to think that theres a great opportunity here to reexamine our values, and the world will be better after this works it's way through, at least us westerners may be more humble.