Run or stay, which way. Cyclone Linda

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by Simi 60

You can't be that concerned

This isn't the hypothetical bigger cyclone direct hit.

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by Mike Banks

Find a nice little mangrove-lined creek and anchor fore and aft--and set fenders against the mangrove roots and tie with long lines to a couple of sturdy mangroves.

No worries--That is how my boat survived Yasi. I was not on it though. I fled south--but the boat was fine--just covered in leaves and twigs I could have stayed aboard and watched the fun.

The last place I would choose to hide in a cyclone would be a marina. As said earlier--a cosy mangrove creek is the place to be, and set your anchors well forward and well aft with long scope, and use long ropes to tie off to sturdy mangroves ahead and astern, and a doubled rope or two abeam leading to the cockpit so they can be released and retrieved easily, and set fenders and fender-boards if you have them. Tidal surge can be extreme and you may need to slacken or tighten ropes a little, but the longer they are the less trips out into the driving rain and wind and flying debris you will have.

Sails should be taken down and stowed, and halyards tied clear of the masts with ties to the shrouds.
.
.

This is very good advice,
In the mangroves is very safe, as far up as you can go, preferably around a few bends to diminish the tidal surge,
You are protected from the winds by the mangroves, It goes over the tops,

A little bit more to add to this,

Is get the hell out of the mangroves and creeks and rivers as soon as the Cyclone has gone,
The flood waters coming down in the days after the cyclone will be full of Hyacinth, Trees, Rubbish, and everything else you can think of,
Plus the flood waters will raise the levels of the creeks and rivers in the mangroves to extreme heights and moving very fast,
More than likely above the tops of the mangroves, It becomes an ocean,


you wont be able to get onto your boat because of the flood waters,
The Hyacinth will collect on your anchor chain and pull your boat under,
Its measured in Tonnage,
110 boats sank in the Burnett river, Bundaberg, due to being pulled under, 2011,
If your anchor lets go, You can end up in the tops of trees or the mangroves,
Over 30 feet in the Burnett river at the bridge in Bundaberg,,
In the Piccys, the river was over the top of the banks on the other side of the river,
The roof of the slipway buildings was the only thing above the floods,
It was Very sad to see a very big Cat parked in the tops of the mangroves, a long way from any thing to retrieve it,

Cheers, Brian,

[shufti]

So much good advice here that I've little to add except - if you are in a 'bad' spot in Manly marina (as suggested to watch out for) and do want to move to another marina, there is also the option of Scarborough and Newport Marinas on the Redcliffe peninsula. My boat is in the Newport canals and not too concerned at this stage. Watching it's development of course, but not too concerned.

[shufti]

Originally Posted by Mr B

This is very good advice,

... Is get the hell out of the mangroves and creeks and rivers as soon as the Cyclone has gone,
The flood waters coming down in the days after the cyclone will be full of Hyacinth, Trees, Rubbish, and everything else you can think of,
Plus the flood waters will raise the levels of the creeks and rivers in the mangroves to extreme heights and moving very fast,
More than likely above the tops of the mangroves, It becomes an ocean,


you wont be able to get onto your boat because of the flood waters,
The Hyacinth will collect on your anchor chain and pull your boat under,
Its measured in Tonnage,
110 boats sank in the Burnett river, Bundaberg, due to being pulled under, 2011,...

I was living at Burnett Heads for both the 2011 and 2013 events. The Burnett Heads tornado [during the cyclone] in 2013 pretty much circled our house - missed us by about 200m. We had some minor water damage from the sideways rain but the houses 2-300m around us were smashed. I didn;t own WineDown at that stage - she was up on the hard though when it happened (I'd been looking at her with a bit of envy for a year or two at that stage and had no idea I'd one day own her).

There were boats of all sizes and kinds on the banks and sunk in the river after the waters receded (both times). The water Hyacinth was worse in the 2011 flood as it had so much more time to build up , upstream. It was quite a site to see in the Burnett Heads marina. Didn't seem to be very much after the 2013 flood though.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

I think Dave S's three questions are important. To the point that they (1) deserve good answers; and (2) that I encourage Dave to talk to a moderator, such as Ann Cate, about renaming his thread (to include Moreton Bay) and moving it to a more relevant sub-forum (such as the new Oceania - Australiana sub-forum or the older Destinations: Pacific sub-forum).

To approach Dave S's questions in reverse order:

3. if a tropical cyclone were approaching Moreton Bay, should I head north?

The usual function of a tropical cyclone is to transfer energy (atmospheric and ocean heat) towards the pole. In the case of the coasts of Australia, that means that with few exceptions tropical cyclones head South. So do most extra-tropical cyclones (East Coast Lows and the like).

So yes, heading North to avoid a cyclone seems fair advice. But it needs to be qualified. Tropical (and extratropical) cyclones sometimes generate in multiples rather than just singletons. So if you head N to get away from one cyclone, you could be putting yourself in the path of another.

Then the next qualifier has to do with the follow-up question: to where from Moreton Bay? As Oceanride007 noted, the next location N of Moreton Bay that might offer safe harbour is inside the Wide Bay Bar (in Great Sandy Strait and Tin Can Bay). Crossing the Wide Bay Bar when a system such as Cyclone Linda is offshore is not for the fainthearted. You'd need a fast and powerful craft to do it and good local knowledge.

So although heading N has a theoretical underpinning, you would need the time and speed to be able to move far enough N to a good cyclone harbour. For most cruisers, it's impractical.

2. Why hasn't much notice been issued to cruisers in Moreton Bay?

As Ann Cate noted, one of the realities of the current era is that you and I all have access to processed data that is better than professional meteorologists and Harbour Masters had 30 years ago. Sources of processed data include the invaluable windy.com, were you can run both the European ECMWF numeric model and the GFS model. You can also monitor tropicalstormrisk.com, BobMcDavitt's blog MetBob, and of course the wealth of information provided by the Bureau of Meteorology - warnings, weather maps, MetEye and more.

If the nanny state has whipped you into being a passive couch potato, then you would be waiting for notice from the Bureau of Meteorology (which issued Severe Weather Warnings yesterday including via the mainstream mass media) and the Regional Harbour Master (currently Captain Glenn Hale, who is legally obliged to issue an Extreme Weather Warning at least 24 hours before an event). The Regional Harbour Master for the Port of Brisbane would do so on VHF12, VHF13, and VHF16.

Of course, there are quids for every quo from the Harbour Master. Captain Hale can direct you to do things with your vessel (and you are supposed to maintain somehow magically your contact details with him so he can so do). You are also expected to have downloaded, read, and complied with Captain Hale's Extreme Weather Event Contingency Plan for Brisbane 2017/2018.

I'll go to the trouble of telling you what I am sure that you and every other vessel owner including of course international visitors (at least in the northern part of Moreton Bay, within the confines of the Port of Brisbane) knows: you can download the Extreme Weather Event Contingency Plan - Brisbane 2017/2018 (it's an 82 KB pdf) from the Maritime Safety Queensland website, either by searching for that name or trying the ungainly (and possibly not permanent) URL of:
https://publications.qld.gov.au/data...er-2017-18.pdf

And of course I am sure that your marina has told you about Captain Hale's contingency plan and that your marina manager has told you and every other vessel owner - including the international visitor cruisers - of their own extreme weather event plan and how it fits into the Marina-based Safety Plans specified on page 7 of Captain Hale's Contingency Plan. In short, that has to do with the design and build specifications of your marina. Captain Hale advises you to discuss with your marina manager:

(a) whether the marina allows berths to remain occupied;
(b) how duplicate lines should be run to alternative bollards or cleats; and
(c) other factors including whether power and water lines should be disconnected and who will make decisions and when to bar people from pontoons and hardstand areas of the marina.

For other ports on the Queensland coast, you'll find slightly different Extreme Weather Event Contingency Plans. With my current cruiser, Led Myne, I've weathered tropical cyclones (or ex-TCs) in Princess Charlotte Bay, Cooktown's Endeavour River, Cairns, Gladstone, and Moreton Bay. Of all of those, I think the Port of Cairns has the best cyclone plan. And that's partly because Trinity Inlet has not been overdeveloped (i.e. it still has several mangrove line creeks and those creeks are not fed by large catchments, so they do not flood) so that there are enough cyclone holes for the vessels in Trinity Inlet to seek shelter.

Northern Moreton Bay is not so equipped with mangrove-lined creeks that do not flood. And southern Moreton Bay has only good shelter anchorages for a small fraction of the boats in all of Moreton Bay. The destruction of mangrove forests in southern Moreton Bay has been rapid and is unlikely to be reversed. Canal estates are generally not cyclone anchorages.

1. If I'm in a marina in Moreton Bay and a cyclone approaches, should I flee a marina in Moreton Bay or remain in the marina?

Regardless of whether you choose to flee or stay, you should note:

(a) depending on directions from your marina manager or the Regional Harbour Master, you may not have a choice. I think that is unlikely, because as noted above, only a few boats can be accommodated in the few good cyclone holes in southern Moreton Bay. So the options are limited.

(b) in any case, reducing your top hamper (removing all sails, whether rolled around a stay or furled and stacked on a boom) as advised in the Extreme Weather Event contingency plan is important.

I'll close by noting that weather records for Moreton Bay have only been kept since 1824 (of course the indigenous owners of the land had a much longer oral history, including back some thousands of years to when the sea level was very much lower and the Brisbane River mouth was N of Mud Island; but as you are aware the white pfellas and their agents of coercion including the Qld Police have done their very best to disperse the blacks). You can find parts of that historical record on the Bureau of Met website, in books on severe storms published by academics at Griffith U, and various independent websites. Even a cursory examination of that record will show that Moreton Bay (and even as far S as Sydney) is not immune from Tropical Cyclones or extratropical cyclones (ECLs, east coast lows).

Look for the stories about the cyclone of February 1954, when the fishing/prawning fleet in northern Moreton Bay was trashed with 75 of 100 trawlers destroyed and boats found in the tops of the trees of the mangrove forest around Beachmere. Two metres of water over coastal roads on the Gold Coast washing away motorcars. Death toll around 26. That February 1954 cyclone was followed by an ECL in July 1954 that damaged the Caloundra lighthouse and moved dinghies and boats inland by tens of metres.

Then look for: Cyclone Annie in January 1963; Cyclone Dora in February 1971; Cyclone Lance in April 1984 (waves of 8 metres); Cyclone Roger in March 1993 (waves of 13 metres); and of course ex-TC Debbie in 2017.

For those who think going South is a good idea, look for: Cyclone Beatrice that crossed the coast at Lismore in January 1959; Cyclone Colin in March 1976 producing 12 m waves off Sydney Heads and sinking boats in Botany Bay; and Cyclone Nancy in February 1990 crossed the coast near Byron Bay.

The history is really interesting. It really doesn't sound like there's a lot of places to head to other than sitting it out in a marina. Heading north and crossing the Wide Bar sounds suicidal to a wimp like me. Heading further north over Fraser Island is straight forward, but then where do you go? My boat is in the hardstand at Bundaberg now.

[JPA Cate]

Originally Posted by Alan Mighty

I think Dave S's three questions are important. To the point that they (1) deserve good answers; and (2) that I encourage Dave to talk to a moderator, such as Ann Cate, about renaming his thread (to include Moreton Bay) and moving it to a more relevant sub-forum (such as the new Oceania - Australiana sub-forum or the older Destinations: Pacific sub-forum).

To approach Dave S's questions in reverse order:

3. if a tropical cyclone were approaching Moreton Bay, should I head north?

The usual function of a tropical cyclone is to transfer energy (atmospheric and ocean heat) towards the pole. In the case of the coasts of Australia, that means that with few exceptions tropical cyclones head South. So do most extra-tropical cyclones (East Coast Lows and the like).

So yes, heading North to avoid a cyclone seems fair advice. But it needs to be qualified. Tropical (and extratropical) cyclones sometimes generate in multiples rather than just singletons. So if you head N to get away from one cyclone, you could be putting yourself in the path of another.

Then the next qualifier has to do with the follow-up question: to where from Moreton Bay? As Oceanride007 noted, the next location N of Moreton Bay that might offer safe harbour is inside the Wide Bay Bar (in Great Sandy Strait and Tin Can Bay). Crossing the Wide Bay Bar when a system such as Cyclone Linda is offshore is not for the fainthearted. You'd need a fast and powerful craft to do it and good local knowledge.

So although heading N has a theoretical underpinning, you would need the time and speed to be able to move far enough N to a good cyclone harbour. For most cruisers, it's impractical.

2. Why hasn't much notice been issued to cruisers in Moreton Bay?

As Ann Cate noted, one of the realities of the current era is that you and I all have access to processed data that is better than professional meteorologists and Harbour Masters had 30 years ago. Sources of processed data include the invaluable windy.com, were you can run both the European ECMWF numeric model and the GFS model. You can also monitor tropicalstormrisk.com, BobMcDavitt's blog MetBob, and of course the wealth of information provided by the Bureau of Meteorology - warnings, weather maps, MetEye and more.

If the nanny state has whipped you into being a passive couch potato, then you would be waiting for notice from the Bureau of Meteorology (which issued Severe Weather Warnings yesterday including via the mainstream mass media) and the Regional Harbour Master (currently Captain Glenn Hale, who is legally obliged to issue an Extreme Weather Warning at least 24 hours before an event). The Regional Harbour Master for the Port of Brisbane would do so on VHF12, VHF13, and VHF16.

Of course, there are quids for every quo from the Harbour Master. Captain Hale can direct you to do things with your vessel (and you are supposed to maintain somehow magically your contact details with him so he can so do). You are also expected to have downloaded, read, and complied with Captain Hale's Extreme Weather Event Contingency Plan for Brisbane 2017/2018.

I'll go to the trouble of telling you what I am sure that you and every other vessel owner including of course international visitors (at least in the northern part of Moreton Bay, within the confines of the Port of Brisbane) knows: you can download the Extreme Weather Event Contingency Plan - Brisbane 2017/2018 (it's an 82 KB pdf) from the Maritime Safety Queensland website, either by searching for that name or trying the ungainly (and possibly not permanent) URL of:
https://publications.qld.gov.au/data...er-2017-18.pdf

And of course I am sure that your marina has told you about Captain Hale's contingency plan and that your marina manager has told you and every other vessel owner - including the international visitor cruisers - of their own extreme weather event plan and how it fits into the Marina-based Safety Plans specified on page 7 of Captain Hale's Contingency Plan. In short, that has to do with the design and build specifications of your marina. Captain Hale advises you to discuss with your marina manager:

(a) whether the marina allows berths to remain occupied;
(b) how duplicate lines should be run to alternative bollards or cleats; and
(c) other factors including whether power and water lines should be disconnected and who will make decisions and when to bar people from pontoons and hardstand areas of the marina.

For other ports on the Queensland coast, you'll find slightly different Extreme Weather Event Contingency Plans. With my current cruiser, Led Myne, I've weathered tropical cyclones (or ex-TCs) in Princess Charlotte Bay, Cooktown's Endeavour River, Cairns, Gladstone, and Moreton Bay. Of all of those, I think the Port of Cairns has the best cyclone plan. And that's partly because Trinity Inlet has not been overdeveloped (i.e. it still has several mangrove line creeks and those creeks are not fed by large catchments, so they do not flood) so that there are enough cyclone holes for the vessels in Trinity Inlet to seek shelter.

Northern Moreton Bay is not so equipped with mangrove-lined creeks that do not flood. And southern Moreton Bay has only good shelter anchorages for a small fraction of the boats in all of Moreton Bay. The destruction of mangrove forests in southern Moreton Bay has been rapid and is unlikely to be reversed. Canal estates are generally not cyclone anchorages.

1. If I'm in a marina in Moreton Bay and a cyclone approaches, should I flee a marina in Moreton Bay or remain in the marina?

Regardless of whether you choose to flee or stay, you should note:

(a) depending on directions from your marina manager or the Regional Harbour Master, you may not have a choice. I think that is unlikely, because as noted above, only a few boats can be accommodated in the few good cyclone holes in southern Moreton Bay. So the options are limited.

(b) in any case, reducing your top hamper (removing all sails, whether rolled around a stay or furled and stacked on a boom) as advised in the Extreme Weather Event contingency plan is important.

I'll close by noting that weather records for Moreton Bay have only been kept since 1824 (of course the indigenous owners of the land had a much longer oral history, including back some thousands of years to when the sea level was very much lower and the Brisbane River mouth was N of Mud Island; but as you are aware the white pfellas and their agents of coercion including the Qld Police have done their very best to disperse the blacks). You can find parts of that historical record on the Bureau of Met website, in books on severe storms published by academics at Griffith U, and various independent websites. Even a cursory examination of that record will show that Moreton Bay (and even as far S as Sydney) is not immune from Tropical Cyclones or extratropical cyclones (ECLs, east coast lows).

Look for the stories about the cyclone of February 1954, when the fishing/prawning fleet in northern Moreton Bay was trashed with 75 of 100 trawlers destroyed and boats found in the tops of the trees of the mangrove forest around Beachmere. Two metres of water over coastal roads on the Gold Coast washing away motorcars. Death toll around 26. That February 1954 cyclone was followed by an ECL in July 1954 that damaged the Caloundra lighthouse and moved dinghies and boats inland by tens of metres.

Then look for: Cyclone Annie in January 1963; Cyclone Dora in February 1971; Cyclone Lance in April 1984 (waves of 8 metres); Cyclone Roger in March 1993 (waves of 13 metres); and of course ex-TC Debbie in 2017.

For those who think going South is a good idea, look for: Cyclone Beatrice that crossed the coast at Lismore in January 1959; Cyclone Colin in March 1976 producing 12 m waves off Sydney Heads and sinking boats in Botany Bay; and Cyclone Nancy in February 1990 crossed the coast near Byron Bay.

Alan,

Thank you very much for such a thoughtful, informative post.

Ann

[Factor]

Also - remember to consider your insurance, many policys have a zero excess if located at a marina. Something to consider

[olaf hart]

Pantaneus told me a named cyclone is an act of god and not covered, no third party liability required as well.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by Factor

Also - remember to consider your insurance, many policys have a zero excess if located at a marina.

Spot on, Factor.

Led Myne's insurance policy says she has to be in a professionally-run marina if I'm away from her for more than 24 hours.

Now the question is: where do you find a professionally-run marina in SE Qld? or anywhere else?

Sure, marinas have managers to take your money. And a couple of marinas even have staff with Master's degrees in marina management.

But professionals? Ones that know what the load limit of the pontoons are. Ones that know boats. Ones that make sure that a boat is in a berth that matches its LOA (and hence the load limit of the berth).

I'm sure there must be some. Somewhere.

Clowns and cowboys driven by ideas about marketing, return on investment, and upselling seem more common to me. Sad.

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by olaf hart

Pantaneus told me a named cyclone is an act of god and not covered, no third party liability required as well.

Thanks for that info, I didnt know that,

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by olaf hart

Pantaneus told me a named cyclone is an act of god and not covered, no third party liability required as well.

Does that mean an atheist would still be covered?

[Simi 60]

Originally Posted by olaf hart

Pantaneus told me a named cyclone is an act of god and not covered, no third party liability required as well.

Is that right.
This was attached with my latest policy

PA N TA E N I U S „ N A M E D T RO P I C A L S TO R M S “ C L AU S E


– “Named Tropical Storms” Clause –

1. Definition
A Named Tropical Storm is defined as a tropical cyclone which is given a name by a regional agency such as the National Hurricane
Center or the Australian Bureau of Meteorology or similar which are advisory and warning centers of the World Meteorological
Organization (WMO Severe Weather Information Centre).

2. Application and duration of this clause
This clause is operative between July 1st and November 15th annually in the area between the Latitudes 10°N and 30.5°N (but
does not apply for the Canary islands and Cape Verde) and between November 1st and May 1st annually in the area between the
Latitudes 10°S and 30°S.

3. Scope and conditions of the cover
Loss or damage caused by Named Tropical Storms is excluded from this policy, unless the Vessel is
a) at sea (not anchored, moored or aground),
b) stored ashore in a one-piece or approved cradle (except in the case of multihulls) with the cradle and Vessel securely lashed
together and secured with ground anchoring arrangements, or the hull sunk in the ground. All removable parts (booms,
spars, sails, awnings, etc.) are removed and stored safely. If the masts are removed, they are stored separately and safely. If
the masts remain stepped they are secured by all possible means (using halyards, additional lines etc.) to the ground,
c) secured in a marina berth with additional ropes as can appropriately be used,
d) on a mooring anchored with adequate ground gear. For Australian waters this only applies if the swing mooring is located
in a river, serviced annually and certified for the size of the vessel by the mooring company and a copy has been provided
to Pantaenius in advance, or
e) in the mangroves anchored with adequate ground gear and secured with multiple landlines.

4. Deductible
For any claim for loss or damage caused by a Named Tropical Storm which is accepted under 3. a) or 3. b), the deductible noted in
the policy applies.
For any claim for loss or damage which is accepted under condition 3. c) – e) the deductible is 20% of the total cost of the claim,
subject to a maximum of EUR 100.000 (or the equivalent of the currency stated in the schedule), or the deductible noted in the
policy, whichever is the higher.

5. This clause is an integral part of the hull insurance contract and takes precedence over the Yacht Hull Clauses.

[olaf hart]

Didn’t read the small print, went with my usual broker.

[Alan Mighty]

Originally Posted by olaf hart

Didn’t read the small print, went with my usual broker.

You must be a rich man, Olaf, to be so free of cares.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

Could be an option too. My concern with creeks and rivers is the stuff that can wash down them.

This is my concern as well, I've had two friends lose their boats in bundaberg due to the flooding that brings not just water but stuff. Having spent alot of years in the tweed area I've seen the power of a river after a cyclone turns into a rain depression.

I was in the sandy straits last year when Debbie came down the coast. I noticed the trawlers left tin can bay (I assume Tin Can bay) and anchored further up the straights after Sheridan flats. I made the assumption they were concerned of flooding.