Asking for weather advice going from Victoria to San Francisco tomorrow

[RedHerring]

I'm looking at https://www.windyty.com/?2016-09-06-...737,-123.552,6 and their model is predicting a small, short lived low W of Neah Bay on Monday, with associated southerly wind. Per my understanding, even though predicted wind is relatively weak, that's bad news because it's chop and swell going in opposite directions. If by the time we get to Neah Bay this forecast doesn't change, we should wait it out in Neah Bay and sail after it's replaced by the Pacific High northerlies.

Question is: am I right? And if so, how long should we wait before sailing to avoid the worst of confused seas when going out of Juan de Fuca?

[Eder]

I would wait ...I just did Port Alberni to San Diego...you'll get lots of lumps near Medicino...why take extra?

[newhaul]

Looked at passage weather and sail flow for the entrance to the straights and personally I would just go with the tides staying on the north side of the straits and head out about 20 miles before turning south

[jackdale]

24 and 48 hour forecasts do not look great.


Northeast Pacific WX Briefing Package

Watch the Low in Calfornia.

At least the wind and current is on your tail.

[RedHerring]

Right, like I said, the way it looks, we are not sailing out of Neah Bay until Tuesday.

[Paul L]

I'd sit out the GRIB predicted beating winds. Maybe a Thursday departure if you plan to go straight through. There's plenty of harbors to break this up into 2 day runs with time to wait for good weather.

[RedHerring]

> Maybe a Thursday departure if you plan to go straight through

This is where I need to ask for a clarification. Where are you looking and what are you seeing on Wednesday that makes you say "Thursday departure"?

[UNCIVILIZED]

If naught else, check with Victoria Classic Boat Festival - Home where they're currently having a Wooden Boat Festival. And also the NW Maritime Center in Port Townsend, WA Northwest Maritime Center As the Wooden Boat Festival in PT starts this Thu/Fri. And both HQ's will have a good fix on the weather in the area.

But be wary, as I've seen the first Winter Storm blow in as early as now, with winds over 50kts in Port Townsend. Which can mean a lot more at times out at the entrance to the Straits & in the Pacific off the coast. Usually lasting for a couple of days.
A common precursor to such, in PT, is when it starts to blow from the South.

www.Wunderground.com actually has a decent array of real time weather stations, & buoy inputs, to track what's going on in the area. Which helps in finding a spot to duck in out of the worst of the winds.

[zeehag]

passage has been most accurate i have seen.
i am here facing 90e and hoping that passage made a big error, praying wundeground is accurate this time.
i would go with the passage weather site, which has been quite accurate here on west coast.
but please cross fingers and eyes that wunder has it this time.....

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by RedHerring

> Maybe a Thursday departure if you plan to go straight through

This is where I need to ask for a clarification. Where are you looking and what are you seeing on Wednesday that makes you say "Thursday departure"?

With the GFS GRIB last night it looked like you could avoid any beating and not have excessive motoring on.a Thurs. departure. I've done that run 4 times. I think it is best to head out on a good forecast, not go way offshore, and break the trip up with 1 or 2 stops.
You can play with departures days at FastSeas | Weather Routing Put your course and departure date in and calculate the course conditions. Then use the Departure tab to calculate the course if you left on the fallowing days. This is all based on the GFS GRIB,same model used on windty

[UNCIVILIZED]

Originally Posted by Paul L

With the GFS GRIB last night it looked like you could avoid any beating and not have excessive motoring on.a Thurs. departure. I've done that run 4 times. I think it is best to head out on a good forecast, not go way offshore, and break the trip up with 1 or 2 stops.
You can play with departures days at FastSeas | Weather Routing Put your course and departure date in and calculate the course conditions. Then use the Departure tab to calculate the course if you left on the fallowing days. This is all based on the GFS GRIB,same model used on windty

Where, on that run, do you pull in to for stops?

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by UNCIVILIZED

Where, on that run, do you pull in to for stops?

Newport, Crescent City, Eureka, Drake's Bay to name a few . The CG is good at giving bar info all along the Oregon coast.

[seasick]

Download Meteoearth and pay for the upgrade. This is way more accurate a forecast than you will get with sail flow and others. The southerly will have passed by Monday night and a late Wednesday or Thursday departure will be fine if a bit calm. I have made this voyage seven times. My preference is 200-miles offshore away from the commercial traffic.

[knockabout]

https://earth.nullschool.net/ for wind/8176 hf for current weather prediction

[RedHerring]

We are in Neah Bay now, will be heading out tomorrow (Wednesday) morning. Passage Weather shows a very light wind patch in the evening of the same day, which should be no big deal. We are going to take a couple hundred miles offshore route, too.

Thanks everyone!