Double trouble typhoons end/begin season

[pbmaise]

Tuesday afternoon, this is getting a bit crazy. WindyTy is now showing 5 different LLCC all above the equator.

[pbmaise]

Wednesday evening Jan 6, Nine C consolidated with the other LLCCs and is now about 8 degrees East of date line. I was expecting JTWC to mention it today. Perhaps tomorrow.

Windyty still shows an LLCC west of the dateline too however no where near as intense as Nine C.
https://www.windyty.com/?4.000,-170.000,5

[jimbunyard]

Didn't know if you've seen this, thought you might be interested. It only updates daily. There are a variety of other products, including loops here, Ocean Prediction Center For some reason the coverage only extends to 135E, so I don't know how actually useful this will be to you, but there's a lot of information there...

[pbmaise]

Finally JTWC decided to recognize NineC again. I call it NineC since that is what I have been watching all this time. JTWC has gone straight into a typhoon alert and skipped the low, med, high business. Duh!! Look at it on this sat view.

The question now is whether it will swing back towards the West and track along the equator. JTWC has not provided an opinion on that yet.

So will the Philippines still get that Cat 5 super typhoon I predicted. Well, if it is this big now and moves towards the Philippines there may need to be a new category. This has a long time to brew big.

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.3N 171.4W

[pbmaise]

A very important link!!!!!!

Many times I cannot get into the JTWC website. Someone solved this problem. The secret is to disguise the website you enter from. To do this use this link to get to JTWC.

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) [Anonymoused]

[pbmaise]

Update Friday afternoon. We finally have a name for this system. It is Pali and the the strange name is owing to the fact it formed East of the date line.

Forecast is to slowly track west and it will take 4 days to move 4 degrees West.

This system has already set two records.

Pali is the earliest storm ever recorded in central Pacific.

Dating back to 1949, only two tropical storms had formed in the central Pacific in the month of January prior to Pali. Tropical Storm Winona was the first on Jan. 13, 1989, and the second was Ekeka on Jan. 28, 1992. Ekeka reached Category 3 hurricane intensity amidst the moderate El Niño of 1991-92.

El Niño has played a role in the formation of this unusual tropical cyclone. According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, "This low-latitude out-of-season system has tapped into significant directional shear of the low-level winds, with an El Niño related westerly wind burst south of the system, and prevailing easterly trade winds to the north providing the large scale conditions conducive for development."

Hurricane specialist Eric Blake said that Pali is also the "southernmost tropical storm to form in the central Pacific basin," forming at just 4.7 degrees north of the equator, likely also influenced by the warmer than average sea-surface temperatures associated with El Niño.

Whether this will track about 4000 nm to the Philippines?

Hmmmm maybe.

[pbmaise]

Update Saturday
Typhoon Ula refused to die the death JTWC was expecting and breathed new life. New peak wind gusts near 135 knots are forecast as it nears Port Vila. However no land falls predicted.

Tropical Storm Pali is more intense than expected too. I checked into the name. Pali was the next name for a 2015 storm. So powers that be decided this system formed before the new year. Which confirms it was really Nine C. The storm is forecasted to track slowly West and decline a little. At this point it is probably less than 50% chance it will ever build to a full cyclone.

[pbmaise]

Update

Warm 25 knot winds are sapping the strength from Pali as it is slowly being pushed West towards the date line.

As it gets closer to 180, speed is building, however it should be down to about 30 knot winds.

I missed the fact that Nine C broke a record.

" "T.D. Nine-C broke yet another record for the lowest latitude western hemisphere tropical cyclone on record at 2.4 degrees north latitude," said The Weather Channel hurricane specialist Michael Lowry on New Year's Eve.

Lowry says the previous record holder was Hurricane Ekeka at 4.2 degrees north latitude in late January 1992."

[pbmaise]

Tuesday

Ula is headed South fast where colder water will snuff it out. It peaked as a Cat 4.

Pali almost built to hurricane strength yesterday with gusts of 70 knots.
However, Pali doesn't seem to be headed anywhere. It appears stuck in a finite area.
Yes it started heading West, then turned again back East.

It looks now like it will never make the long trek all the way to the Philippines.

I no longer believe the Philippines will get hit later this month.

Still will keep an eye out.

[pbmaise]

Tuesday afternoon

Pali hit hurricane strength today setting new record.

It is the earliest hurricane on record in the Central Pacific.

Only one other hurricane in January but later.

Main problem it is causing is high surf that has been pounding beaches as far as Hawaii. Likely Kapingamarangi is getting it worst.

[pbmaise]

Wednesday

Pali has risen to Cat 2, however there is a very high airflow to the Southern Hemisphere to the East. This seems to be what draws Pali Eastwards.

However, JTWC predicts Pali will head West and approach dateline in about 5 days.

[pbmaise]

Wednesday Jan 13
Two new systems have come into play. Read up on the Perfect Storm and be glad you are not in the North Pacific. There is an Extra Tropical Cyclone reaching 958 MB by 00z/14th and 949 MB by 00Z 15th Waves are expected over 50 feet. Note the perfect storm of 1991 that we all know as the perfect storm had a pressure of 972 so it was TINY compared to this brute in the North Pacific this week.


(There is also an out of season extra tropical cyclone in the North Atlantic)

A new system is also forming South of Hurricane Pali. This is what is helping to draw air to the South sapping strength. Likely this will be a new cyclone shortly since it is forming East of the date line.


It looks now like Pali will be in a tug of war with one system pulling it North and the other South.

[pbmaise]

You know the JTWC has not even mentioned this giant storm in the North Pacific. Winds are going to be 90 knots. I gather it is outside their jurisdiction. BTW the record storm in the North Pacific occurred only this past December 2015 with a low pressure of 925 mmHg.

[Pelagic]

Thanks for giving us the heads up on developing Systems in the Pacific....
It is definitely a strange year and my head is presently in the bilges at the shipyard:thumbup: