El Niño

[highseas]

It appears we are heading for another El Nino winter;good or bad,all depends how you look at it.

[GordMay]

Indeed, analogous weather generally brings mixed reviews; but I’ve always felt that seasonable weather (even when it’s bad) is most preferable, overall.

While economic impacts tend to cancel each other out at the national level, El Niño does cause real economic losses such as storm damage or crop losses, which are not offset by gains elsewhere. These are losses that can't be prevented or reduced by a better forecast or mitigation.

For example, on average, El Niños result in agricultural losses approaching $2 billion, or nearly 1-2 percent of total crop output.

In the 1997-98 El Niño, property losses were estimated at nearly $2.6 billion. Fortunately, these real losses are generally a small fraction of the economic impacts of El Niño.

➥ NOAA - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration - El Niño Arrives; Expected to Persist through Winter 2009-10

➥ NOAA/PMEL/TAO Recent El Niño, La Niña and Climate Info

[Robertcateran]

In Australia out agriculture really gets hit hard by El Nino. we are already suffering long term drought with our main river system in a bad way, not even reaching the sea. In Canberra our dams are slowly going down and unless we get some decent rain soon, we will have to go on even tighter water restrictions. The lack of water also affects our fisheries

[Sonosailor]

I have a buddy, Steve, presently living aboard "Aspen" in Chaguaramas, Trinidad. He is an amateur weatherwatcher who presently has the job of broadcasting the weather on the morning cruisers net there. He doesn't have easy access to the internet, and has just sent me the following email:

I have had a lot of people asking me about El Nino. Since I have to broadcast the weather here it would be really helpful to know the answers to these questions:

1. How will El Nino affect the Caribbean weather this winter and spring and

2. Some cruisers are planning to head into the Pacific and are wondering how El Nino will affect them.

Can anyone help me with some answers, interpretations, or good net sites on the topic?

[John A]

The El Nino effect in the Eastern Caribbean has already made a difference, producing drier climate conditions in Western Africa which resulted in very limited Tropical activity during the Caribbean hurricane season.
As the El Nino occurres in the Pacific and can effect currents, the results could have a wider impact and we should await reports form those who are out there or who have experienced with an El Nino in that area.
I have heard of some boats waiting to go into the Pacific until after a El Nino season has passed.
Question.
Is Eric nolonger giving morning weather reports on Ham 3855 from Trinidad?
He would be a great resource as well as Chris or George as the three give very comprehensive reports for cruisers. Get the radio schedules from the Caribbean Compass.
John A

[imagine2frolic]

sonosailor,

My question too is how will the Pacific be affected in late spring? We are looking at the canal to Hawaii in late April through the end of May. Then over the Pacific High to S.F...........i2f

[Sonosailor]

John:

I sent Steve your response (thanks for your interest and assistance), and here is what came back. He is also wishing me to contact Herb Hilgenberg, who was my primary source of weather information during my 3 trips between Canada and Trini:


"Thanks for putting those questions out there!

I have the El Nino report from the NWS and have talked with them. They are saying it is only going to be a weak-moderate El Nino and not a full blown El Nino. We already know about hurricane season in the Caribbean but everyone is wondering what will happen Dec-April in the Caribbean. From what I can gather, the trades should be stronger than usual because the jet stream is much further south and the pressure gradient will increase across the Caribbean. However, I would like to get some verification of this! Eric might be a good resource but since I am not a ham we cannot contact him. Yes, Eric does still broadcast but not every day and he is still very good.

In the Pacific the person who wrote said that there are boats waiting to cross the Pacific until the El Nino season has passed. Why? Since the El Nino will be weak-moderate what will this do to the weather pattern for crossing to the Marquesas? Unfortunately Chris does not have any experience with Pacific weather. But Herb does!

Let me know what you hear!"

Anything more for Steve? Although I'm hesitant to bother Herb when he is at his busiest, I'll likely send him a note later today.

[highseas]

Has anyone else noticed how crazy the weather is this winter,seems more than a mild el nino.Moments ago Banderas Bay was hit with 70 knot winds and torrential rains,more like what you would see in summer.This has never occured at this time of year.3 weeks ago near SanBlas I encountered a freak wind off the shore with no warning,over 40 knots with 12 foot vertical waves(only 10 miles from beach)boat was completely submersed for 4 hours in a fight to get inshore.Forecast called for light winds of 10 to 15.In the PNW the snows have all but disappeared,raising concerns of summer drought.Is this a precursor to 2012?

[John A]

This is the first El Nino where the food source for all of the sea lions that usually live at Pier 39 in the SF Bay have moved north, resultiing in an exodus of the sea lions to the coast of Oregon!
This is the first time that LA has had so much rain at one time, water spouts are very rare for southern Calif., and they had two or three during the last storms.
Freezing conditions in Florida? And how about all the snow on the Eastern coast of the US?
I'd suggest holding on to the bar stool with both hands! It ain't over yet!

[anjou]

The lower jet stream has given the UK a much colder winter than usual. Its normally above us, sheilding us from arctic cold while gulf stream keeps us warm.
I wonder what this means for sping and summer

[biltong]

Here in the Garden Route, southern coastline of South Africa we are experiencing drier weather than we have for more than 80 years. Some records show as far back as 100 years. As a result, we are under strict water restrictions. All this while most of the rest of South Africa has more rain than they know what to do with. El Nino or Climate warming, I wonder which????

[anjou]

With so many influencing factors on weather, Its a wonder its been so predictable. for centuries with only minor fluctuations. There was a great programme on TV last night about wind and its influence on the globe. How its moved sand dunes burying cities, deposited sand, creating fertile farmland, altered rainfal, given us trade winds enabling global exploration in the 13th and 14centuries leading to merchant trade, slavery, colonisation etc.
Its a work in progress and fascinating.

If you rolled 20 dice and recorded the totalled score and did it a thousand times, plotted the graph, what line would it make?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by biltong

... El Nino or Climate warming, I wonder which????

Why must it be either-or?

[John A]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Why must it be either-or?

El Nino occurs every so often usually seven to nine years apart.

Climate change is a progressive cycle of unknown length or severity.

The characteristics of an El Nino are subject to this larger cycle of Climate change.

Global warming has been occuring since the end of the last ice age.

We humans have accelerated this globel warming process.

[LuvToSail]

my understanding is this el nino is moderate to strong NOT weak

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

El Niño strengthened during December 2009, with above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) encompassing the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). Weekly values of the Niño-3.4 index increased slightly with the most recent value reaching +1.8°C (Fig. 2). Consistent with this warmth, equatorial upper-ocean heat content anomalies remained positive (Fig. 3). Subsurface temperature anomalies exceeded +2°C across much of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4), with the largest departures seen in the eastern part of the basin at the end of the month. Equatorial low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were also consistent with El Niño, along with a continuation of suppressed convection over Indonesia and enhanced convection over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.
The models continue to disagree on the eventual peak strength of El Niño (Fig. 5). At this time, it is expected that the 3-month Niño-3.4 SST average will exceed +1.5°C during the winter (e.g. November-December-January and December-January-February). Regardless of its precise peak strength, El Niño is expected to exert a significant influence on the global weather and climate in the coming months. Most models indicate that SST anomalies in the Niño-3.4 region will begin to decrease in early 2010, and that El Niño will persist through April-May-June 2010.