El Niño possibility increased to "alert" 70%

[Cpt Balu]

What dose that mean for the south pacific and NZ?

Thanks

ENSO Outlook – an alert system for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

The ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT. This means the chance of El Niño forming from autumn is around 70%; triple the normal likelihood.

The surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean has warmed since late January 2019 and has been touching on El Niño thresholds for five consecutive weeks. Model outlooks suggest this warming is likely to be sustained throughout autumn and into winter. There has been some atmospheric response at times in recent weeks/months - but a consistent signal in both the oceans and atmosphere is required for an event to be declared, and for climate influences to be felt globally.

El Niño ALERT is not a guarantee that El Niño will occur; it is an indication that most typical precursors of an event are in place. El Niño events typically develop in autumn, mature during winter and spring before decaying in late summer and autumn.

[StuM]

The major impact for sailors is that the SE trades tend to be weaker and less consistent in Central and Western Pacific.



That said, the forecasts are generally for a weak El Niño. this year