North Western Pacific typhoons in El Niño year.

[stillbuilding]

There seems to be an increased possibility of 2015 becoming an El Niño event in the Pacific.
Would anyone like to hazard a guess as to what the impact will be on the NW Pacific typhoon "season". I understand that there are no absolute limits to typhoons in the Pacific but should El Nino increase or decrease the frequency or the severity of individual events do you think?


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[stillbuilding]

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[stillbuilding]

So, did a bit of research.
For Hong Kong at least it seems El Niño produces a wetter season but fewer typhoons.










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[Livia]

I was interested in the Marshalls in particular and learned a bit about it. Wrote it up here.

Typhoons, El Nino and the Republic of the Marshall Islands ~ SV Estrellita 5.10b

[stillbuilding]

Thanks for that interesting analysis Livia - surprising conclusions. I would have guessed El Niño increased the frequency in more eastern Pacific. I wonder if the typhoons are more severe as well as more frequent?


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[GordMay]

During El Niño there are on average fewer hurricanes over the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribian Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. La Niña often brings more. The west coast of Mexico and the United States see more landfalling hurricanes during El Niño.
In the central Pacific Ocean El Niño brings more typhoons, both north and south of the equator. Their more easterly genesis makes that fewer of these tropical cyclones reach Australia.
In the northern Pacific Ocean the area with typhoons also shifts east.
There are no effects on the number of cyclones over the Indian Ocean.

➥ Tropical cyclones and the Southern Oscillation

➥ http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/~sobel/...o_sobel_05.pdf

[stillbuilding]

That is really good quality data thanks Gord. Seems reasonable when you understand the easterly movement of typhoon genesis.

Also compatible with the reduced typhoon incidence in HK.

Not a good year to be in Guam and Japan though.

I will be sailing New Caledonia to HK via Palau so there is some chance of a better run with less delay.


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