November 2016 Philippine Typhoon Alert.

[pbmaise]

As I pointed out last week, winds have shifted. Any new typhoons this late in the season will likely cut across the middle of the Philippines.

This is a big heads up that one is now forming just South of Guam.

Here is the best place to see updated images.

JMA/MSC: Himawari Real-Time Image

Select SE Asia 2 when it comes into Philippines.

i like viewing Night Microphysics RGB.

Alert all vessels in Cebu, Negros, Mindoro, and Palawan.

Subic vessels should also keep an eye out.

I expect a storm path wihin 24 hours.

Note: I have already begun preparing. I recommend checking all lines and antichaffing protection. Owing to size of my vessel I am now on two moorings with multiple lines to shore and one of three anchors in the water. My other anchors will go in depending on track and scale.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 149.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 144.5E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 302344Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTION BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AND BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LLCC. A 302343Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND 5-10 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW-MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

[pbmaise]

The area near Guam now sports 3 separate areas of convection. Energy from the area seen yesterday appears to have siphoned off by the other two. Keep a close eye on all three.

I add vessels in Mindanao to this watch owing to the fact one area is only at 8.5 degrees North.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 140.5E,
MEDIUM.

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.1N 151.2E. MEDIUM

(3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.5N 134.8E, APPROXIMATELY 70 NM NORTH OF KOROR, PALAU. LOW

[pbmaise]

Image of Nov 1

[pbmaise]

Image test

[pbmaise]

The first of the three systems will hit central Philippines tonight. However, is not a typhoon.

PAGASA forecast

Moderate to strong winds blowing from the northeast will prevail over Luzon and Eastern Visayas and the coastal waters along these areas will be moderate to rough.

The middle system was starved by the othet two.

The third system is still developing and will likely be a typhoon along a track towards central to Southern Luzon.

[Kadukuguam]

or: National Weather Service Forecast Office Guam Home

Drop down menu on left also has "marine" which includes (third down) weather fax

[pbmaise]

JTWC

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 151.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 149.0E, upgraded to Formation Alert

However looks headed NW.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 144.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 140.5E, remains MEDIUM

Third area approaching Philippines was not uodated but is still Low. This said PAGASA forecast strong winds.

I find PAGASA website a pain and first look st this one.
Panahon TV » Weather Today

[Scotty Kiwi]

Singapore MET 24 hour fc shows a chance

Marine Forecasts | Surface Winds |

But the 48 and 72 hour fc show nothing developing.
Will be a good test of who's accurate?

[pbmaise]

Both of the systems near Guam are now the subject of typhoon formations alerts.

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 151.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 149.0E,

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 140.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.2E,


The third system is not expected to turn into a typhoon, however it is a very big low pressure area just East of Central Philippines. See third photo.

[pbmaise]

Path for one of two now out.

[pbmaise]

Originally Posted by pbmaise

Path for one of two now out.

[pbmaise]

TD 26w Meari appears on track towards Mindoro.

Second formation alert downgraded.

A matter of opinion is Meari will absorb the other system and become one larger system.

Best view on JMA website link given earlier.

Next update 2 pm at JTWC.

[pbmaise]

All clear for Philippines. latest Jtwc path shows sharp northern turn before reaching Philippines

[pbmaise]

It is really remarkable how different the new path is. The path first published showed a steady march West. This new path shows a fast turn to North.

[pbmaise]

Originally Posted by pbmaise

It is really remarkable how different the new path is. The path first published showed a steady march West. This new path shows a fast turn to North.