Pacific Crossing 2010 and El Niño

[LuvToSail]

Cyclone season lasts until the end of April (the peak in late February) in the S Pacific regardless of El Nino or not...which is one reason the recommend cruising season begins in April...Also the dry season begins in May (cooler)
El Nino is predicted to make it a wetter year in the Marquesas..although cyclones rarely make it as far east as the Marquases

[LuvToSail]

Well it is 2016....guess what? I think we are finally making this trip....guess what? It is another El Nino year! I did cross to Hawaii in 2012, and after 3 years in the PNW we are making our way south from Oregon in March.

Although it looks like El Nino is weakening now and almost all models show that it will be Neutral by summer, there is a higher probability of tropical storm activity reaching FP this year (based on other El Nino years). In 1998 there were some storms that reached FP, although none damaged any cruising boats.
“The 1997–98 South Pacific cyclone season was one of the most active and longest South Pacific tropical cyclone seasons on record, with 16 tropical cyclones occurring within the South Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. The season started earlier than normal with 3 systems developing before the official start of the season on November 1, 1997, while the final system of the season dissipated on May 3, 1998, after the season had officially ended on April 30.” (wikipedia)

The Marquesas is relatively safe, especially by May. Storms start in the Western Pacific and make there way East, el nino's warmer waters give the storms energy to possibly track farther East.

All that said, we are still planning on attempting to make it across this year but we will keep an eye to the weather over the next two months and when crossing too if we do pull the trigger.

[Livia]

Dont forget the Gambiers in French Polynesia as also outside the zone. Incredibly lovely in the Austral summer. If were doing it again, and I had a long stay visa for French Poly again, I would consider crossing from Mexico to Marquesas/Gambiers in December-ish and spending three months there before heading to the Tuamotus.

Also, you might find this interesting:
Calculated risks - Ocean Navigator - May/June 2015

[DtM]

Thank you Livia, that was a fascinating article. Great food for thought.


Safe cruising.