Tonga: Hunga-Tonga-Hunga-Ha’apai eruption and tsunami

[JPA Cate]

@ Gord May,

What sad news, Gord. D--n.

Ann

[CaptTom]

Someone posted above that they're 90% vaxxed. If true, that should keep the fatalities and serious cases to a bare minimum. Being exposed is inevitable for any human on this planet. It still sucks to be sick on top of all the tsunami damage, but at least they held it off until most everyone was vaxxed.

[El Pinguino]

According to 'Ourworldindata' Tonga barely has 60% of total population fully vaxxed - about the same as the US.

[grantmc]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

... Now if the government of Peru had issued a tsunami alert ( they didn't want to alarm the population !) ...

I vividly recall a tsunami alert, as a teenager, when I lived at Napier, a small coastal city in New Zealand. It was a Sunday afternoon, sirens, radio announcements; and like thousands of others we went to the beach to watch the tsunami. And we were all so very disappointed as only a small series of waves washed in. If it had have been a significant wave, thousands of watchers would have died that sunny Sunday, including yours truly. How stupid we were, but such alarms still result in significant numbers of idiots rushing to the beach to watch.

Governments eh, damned if they don't and damned if they do.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by grantmc

I vividly recall a tsunami alert, as a teenager, when I lived at Napier, a small coastal city in New Zealand. It was a Sunday afternoon, sirens, radio announcements; and like thousands of others we went to the beach to watch the tsunami. And we were all so very disappointed as only a small series of waves washed in. If it had have been a significant wave, thousands of watchers would have died that sunny Sunday, including yours truly. How stupid we were, but such alarms still result in significant numbers of idiots rushing to the beach to watch.

Governments eh, damned if they don't and damned if they do.

That wasn't May 1960 and the big Valdivia, Chile shake by any chance?
Recall seeing TV footage of it coming ashore in Hilo, Hawaii. killed 61 people who 'went to have a look'.

Plenty of 'interesting' info about it and photos of it on the net.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

According to 'Ourworldindata' Tonga barely has 60% of total population fully vaxxed - about the same as the US.

True.

Tonga has administered at least 138,684 doses of COVID vaccines so far. Assuming every person needs 2 doses, that’s enough to have vaccinated about 66.4% of the country’s population.
Our World in Data reports 139K doses, 61.2% [64,680] fully vaccinated.
WHO reports: As of 4 January 2022, a total of 137,609 vaccine doses have been administered.
There have been 73 confirmed infections [almost ALL this past week] and 0 coronavirus-related deaths reported in the country since the pandemic began.

[Tetepare]

The vaccination rate of an archipelago isn’t very meaningful. No doubt TBU is well above 60%, while the Niua’s well below- but isolated.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Tetepare

The vaccination rate of an archipelago isn’t very meaningful. No doubt TBU is well above 60%, while the Niua’s well below- but isolated.

Same in NZ and even Aus.
In Oz the NT lagged/lags way behind the eastern states in getting vaxxed and this is now showing up in infection and hospitalisation numbers.

In NZ big differences between regions - lookee here - https://covid19.govt.nz/news-and-dat...d-new-zealand/
And also big differences based on ethnicity with Maori lagging well behind Pakeha and Asian.

Area and ethnicity are linked.

[GordMay]

The underwater eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai sent megatons of water vapor, into the stratosphere, contributing to a temporary increase in global warming, over the next 5 years.

When Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai [‘HTHH’] erupted, in January 2022, it shot the standard volcanic cocktail of ash, gas, and pulverized rock into the sky. But the eruption included one extra ingredient, that’s now causing climate concerns: a significant splash of ocean water.

The underwater caldera shot 146 metric megatons of water, into the stratosphere, l potentially contributing to temporary atmospheric warming, over the next 5 years, according to a new study [1], published in Nature Climate Change.

The new study [1] showed that slight warming, caused by the ‘HTHH’ eruption, increased the likelihood of Earth temporarily tipping past the 1.5°C threshold mark [according to WMO [2], 50% chance], by another 7%.

The planet was already 50% likely to warm past 1.5°C [2], in the next 5 years, and the presence of ‘HTHH’s water vapor, increased the odds of temporarily exceeding that threshold to 57%, according to the simulation. [1]

‘HTHH’ ranked a 5.7 on the volcanic explosivity index, alongside other historymakers like Vesuvius (79 CE) and Mount St. Helens (1980). Explosive volcanoes inject ash and sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere, typically leading to global cooling. Mount Tambora’s sulfur dioxide plume, in 1815, for example, inhibited sunlight from reaching Earth, triggering the “year without a summer.”

Unlike other eruptions its size, ‘HTHH’ had a relatively low sulfur dioxide content. Researchers assumed it led to only 0.004°C of global cooling in 2022. [3]

‘HTHH’ exploded just below the ocean surface, injecting vaporized seawater, to at least 40 kilometers [25 miles] above Earth’s surface, and punched through the boundary of the stratosphere. The eruption boosted the water vapor content, of the stratosphere, by 10%–15%, according to the study [1].

The model calculated the monthly change in Earth’s energy balance, caused by the eruption, and showed that water vapor could increase the average global temperature, by up to 0.035°C, over the next 5 years. That’s a large anomaly, for a single event; but, it’s not outside the usual level of noise, in the climate system.

Though, seemingly, innocuous, water vapor is the planet’s most common greenhouse gas. Whereas volcanic sulfates commonly block sunlight from reaching Earth, water vapor keeps it from leaving.

Any number of other phenomena can sway global temperatures, from El Niño conditions, in the Pacific Ocean, to wildfires in Siberia.

[1] “Tonga eruption increases chance of temporary surface temperature anomaly above 1.5 °C” ~ by Stuart Jenkins et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01568-2

[2] “WMO update: 50:50 chance of global temperature temporarily reaching 1.5°C threshold in next five years”
➥ https://public.wmo.int/en/media/pres...%B0c-threshold

[3] “Volcanoes and Climate: Sizing up the Impact of the Recent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai Volcanic Eruption from a Historical Perspective” ~ by Meng Zuo et al
➥ https://link.springer.com/article/10...376-022-2034-1

[GordMay]

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai Volcano May Have Damaged Ozone Layer
The Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha‘apai volcano erupted in January 2022, with the force of an atomic weapon, and it may have damaged the ozone layer, according to new studies. [1 & 2]
More about ➥ https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...d-ozone-layer/

[1] “Unexpectedly rapid aerosol formation in the Hunga Tonga plume”~ by Elizabeth Asher et al
➥ https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2219547120

[2] “Rapid ozone depletion after humidification of the stratosphere by the Hunga Tonga Eruption” ~ by Stephanie Evan et al
➥ https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37856589/

[Tupaia]

Well I think governments should come together and ban volcanoes. Tonga could always pay towards carbon offsets.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Tupaia

Well I think governments should come together and ban volcanoes...

Perhaps, we might [instead] take heed of Reinhold Niebuhr’s “Serenity Prayer”:
“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference.”

[GordMay]

A little over two years ago, the most powerful underwater volcano ever recorded [Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai], erupted off the coast of the tiny island nation of Tonga, in the Pacific Ocean, about 2,000 kilometres from New Zealand.

Kevin Mackay, a marine geologist, with New Zealand's National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, spoke with Quirks & Quarks' host, Bob McDonald, about this record-blasting volcano.

Quirks & Quarks [19 min] ➥ https://www.cbc.ca/radio/quirks/reco...cano-1.7096003

Eruption Video ➥ https://youtu.be/6oANPi-SWN0

[stevensuf]

You may want to look into the effects of the weakening of the Earths magnetic field has on the amount of ozone.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by stevensuf

You may want to look into the effects of the weakening of the Earths magnetic field has on the amount of ozone.

In brief, what did YOU find?

As Earth’s magnetic field is weakening, there have been many misconceptions around its impact on ozone [& climate change]. Some have claimed that the increasing solar radiation, caused by a weaker magnetic field, is damaging the ozone layer, resulting in increased rates of global warming.

What I found [in brief]:

* Since the 1990s, surface UV levels have been relatively stable.

* A weaker magnetic field will allow an increase in solar radiation, to penetrate the atmosphere.

* A damaged ozone layer does NOT result in more global warming. The increase of greenhouse gases, in our atmosphere, is the leading cause of global warming.
While some extra UV rays slip through the ozone hole, their net effect is to cool the stratosphere, more than they warm the troposphere.

* A speculative 2021 study[1] connects the Laschamps excursion [42,000 years ago] to climate upheaval, extinction events, and even changes to human behavior. The scientists hypothesized that, during a time when Earth’s magnetic field was weaker than normal, increased solar and cosmic radiation was able to penetrate Earth’s atmosphere, altering ozone levels, and driving global climate shifts and extinctions.

However, there’s no evidence that Earth’s climate has been significantly impacted by the last three magnetic field excursions [including the Laschamp Excursion], nor by any excursion event, within at least the last 2.8 million years.[2]

[1] “A global environmental crisis 42,000 years ago” ~ by Alan Cooper* et al
➥ https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abb8677

* This is the first paper Cooper has led, since he was fired from the University of Adelaide, in December 2019 for misconduct, allegations which he has denied.
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03932-3

[2] “Why Variations in Earth's Magnetic Field Aren't Causing Today's Climate Change” ~ by Alan Buis, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory
➥ https://climate.nasa.gov/explore/ask...limate-change/

See also:

[3] “Is the ozone hole causing climate change?” ~ NASA
➥ https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/15/is-t...limate-change/

[4] “Are the ozone hole and global warming related?” ~ NASA
➥ https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/bl...rming-related/