Who Ordered the Frikkin Cyclone?!

[Wotname]

Mark and Nicolle, glad to hear everything work out fine but it does sound like you gained some good experience for next time .

44CC, hang in there, good luck Mate.

[cat man do]

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

In Hervey bay, and not able to get the boat into a sheltered hole:


Not much shelter here at all....thanks for the prayers though, seems like they might have helped!

Every time I see that shed it amazes me how exposed it is, gives me a bit more faith with mine, even if it is a few metres taller.

This chart from The Joint Typhoon Warning Center Pearl Harbour, shows a different track to BOM
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) — Naval Oceanography Portal



This Navy site is pretty good as well, always says there is a certificate problem, but loads fine
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/public/

Heres there track on the "No Name Cyclone" which follows similar to above chart (American Model VS Aus.)
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc_tracks...2009030800.gif



This site shows some interesting images when it works properly (use left and right arrows to stop and go single page

Coral Sea 1km VIS (MTSAT-1R)



Good luck with it

Dave

[chala]

For cyclone Helen BOM was the most accurate.
Lets hope no next time.
So fare so good, let see if hamish follow probability.

[Jim Cate]

For Mark and Nicolle, well done guys. So glad that Hamish detoured around the Whitsundays and you!

For 44CC, tie me catamaran down, boys! The progs are somewhat different, but it looks like you will get at least storm force winds and a lot of rain in the Hervey Bay region. How is the drainage at your site... and specifically where is it? Anyhow, sounds like you have a good plan to maximize your chances. We'll be keeping our fingers crossed for y'all.

For us, well we're pretty concerned about Insatiable II, 'cause she's all by herself in the Gladstone Marina and we are nervously watching from San Diego. First time we've ever been in such a position, and things are better when one is present to take action on scene.

We did the usual preventive stripping and securing, but still... The only good thing is that we had considered leaving her in Bundy, but decided that that marina was too exposed in the event of heavy wx. Now we will find out the truth!

Our best wishes to all our friends (and everyone else in the area) as this event progresses.

Cheers,

Jim and Ann s/v Insatiable II lying (we hope) in Gladstone

[Morgan Paul]

For 44CC, tie me catamaran down, boys!

Sounds like good advice. You do not want a lot of wind to get under and lift her.

Good luck 44CC in weathering the storm.

Mark happy for you man. When the crap leaves for good how about more pictures of Nicolle swimming with the fishies in paradise.

Have fun Mark and Niccole and good luck cc.

Paul

[44'cruisingcat]

Latest guess from the BOM looks better. Kind of leaves me wondering what to do though.... from experience I know the shed is fine up to 50 knots, it's rated W41 which means it SHOULD be OK up to 41 m/s or 147 kmh...



It's looking unlikely well see anything like that, but currently we have winds around 20-30 kts, and rain, so getting the cover off safely is gonna be tricky, getting it off intact might be impossible, and very dangerous - there's about 500+ tec screws holding it on. The cover itself would be around $1500 to replace so it's expendable (compared to the boat).

I'm thinking a compromise plan - tie the boat down, board up the windows, and add water ballast, but leave the shed cover on until I start to think it's a threat to the shed, and if that happens, just hack it free with knives.

[44'cruisingcat]

Originally Posted by Jim Cate

For us, well we're pretty concerned about Insatiable II, 'cause she's all by herself in the Gladstone Marina and we are nervously watching from San Diego. First time we've ever been in such a position, and things are better when one is present to take action on scene.


Jim and Ann s/v Insatiable II lying (we hope) in Gladstone

The latest prognosis looks better, so hopefully she'll be fine. I'm sure there will be people at the marina who'll keep an eye on her too, we always did (check other boats) when we lived aboard, and so did lots of others.

Try to enjoy your stay in San Diego!

[MarkJ]

Its pulling more to the east. The high down south must be pushing it. So Gladstone, for Jim and Hervey bay might be both OK.





I think it will turn into a big rain depression and off shore storm that will head east.

The High is the 1026 feature in the Great Australian Bight thats moving east:



This chart might update itself as I hot linked it from BOM

I just thought of another possability and thats that the High might keep the cyclone pretty well where it is! That'll be a sea to avaoid! And water the gardens.

Mark

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by 44'cruisingcat

I'm thinking a compromise plan - tie the boat down, board up the windows, and add water ballast, but leave the shed cover on until I start to think it's a threat to the shed, and if that happens, just hack it free with knives.

That sounds like a great plan.

Water ballasting is a terrific idea.

All the best

Mark

[Joli]

Mark and Nic, glad things worked out. I hope CC44 comes out ok also. It would be heartbreaking to do all that work only to loose the boat. Good luck CC44.

[MarkJ]

Originally Posted by MarkJ

I just thought of another possability and thats that the High might keep the cyclone pretty well where it is! That'll be a sea to avaoid! And water the gardens.

Mark

Bugger! Its stopped... I wonder what the chance is of comeing back again!!!

System is moving into increasing shear and likely to continue weakening over the
next 72 hours. Track is dependent on weakening trend as low level circulation
will feel low level steering influence and slow or reverse movement as the
system becomes weaker. Likely continued southeast movement for another 24 hours,
then slow movement.

[MarkJ]

HUd, your US Navy thinks different for the next few days.
Its interesting to see 2 different analysis. I spose its a good reminder that they are only predictions and the more sources of information that we can get gives us the best poss info to decide whats best.

[MarkJ]

Now its even more different:





I wonder who is right????

[44'cruisingcat]

Can we choose? I like the USAF/USN one much better.

[C--man]

Mark J,

what was it like when it went past you guys?
just wet and windy? any big winds?

I am in Noosa and I heard Fraiser Island was evacuated, I guess they need to leave eary while the barge is running..