Northwest Passage

[Exile]

Originally Posted by SailOar

I'm sure sailors attempt to make the passage as soon as they can, but it's already nearly a month past the Summer Solstice, and as Newhaul is quick to point out, there is still lots of fast ice even along the NWP route that typically clears earliest.

Looks like the route that Jack posted is about 1,400 NM, as the narwhal swims.

Originally Posted by Moo

End of August you'll get a bit of twilight there won't be any darkness until end of September. Most transits are completed by the end of August although some push into September but ideally not late September. Nobody likes to be around ice in darkness ( I certainly don't ).

Thanks for the info. Like the OP of this thread (2007!), I've always been fascinated by attempted & successful passages of the NWP.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

I think you have forgotten much.

Notice the change over the past week.

not much change in the fast ice

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Pete7

From the article:

"The cold times have returned, in line with historically low solar output"

Which supports what Piers Corbyn said 5 years ago in that video.

And what Newhaul has been saying for quite awhile now too. Just sayin' . . . .

Originally Posted by jackdale

That explains this:

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca...ange-heat-wave

According to your own article, it doesn't appear to explain anything.

"It is still too early to attribute this intense June 2019 heat across Europe to climate change"

The only definitive causation cited is warm winds being blown into the European continent from Africa.

But there is some conjecture:

"we do know that heat waves of this sort are expected to occur more frequently across different regions of Earth as greenhouse gas emissions continue to escalate."

More like conjecture used to bolster a theory which is itself conjecture. The only definitive fact in the above statement is that greenhouse gas emissions have continued to escalate. Yet you accept the scientific theory that links this escalation to a heat wave on one continent, but reject the scientific theory that links low solar output to cooling on another. I don't know which theory is correct, but apparently neither does the source you cite. Perhaps you can provide your own analysis showing the link between AGW and regional heat waves which would explain the claimed record-breaking temps in Europe this past June.

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by Moo

End of August you'll get a bit of twilight there won't be any darkness until end of September. Most transits are completed by the end of August although some push into September but ideally not late September. Nobody likes to be around ice in darkness ( I certainly don't ).

Just to confirm what appears to be Moo's first-hand Arctic experience, the first hint of twilight in Cambridge Bay, Victoria Island, Nunavut Territories (roughly in the middle of the NWP) starts the first of August, and full night doesn't start until mid-September.

For Resolute Bay, Cornwallis Island, which is about as far north as most sail on the NWP, the first night doesn't happen until the first of October.



https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/canada/cambridge-bay

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Exile

And what Newhaul has been saying for quite awhile now too. Just sayin' . . . .



According to your own article, it doesn't appear to explain anything.

"It is still too early to attribute this intense June 2019 heat across Europe to climate change"

The only definitive causation cited is warm winds being blown into the European continent from Africa.

But there is some conjecture:

"we do know that heat waves of this sort are expected to occur more frequently across different regions of Earth as greenhouse gas emissions continue to escalate."

More like conjecture used to bolster a theory which is itself conjecture. The only definitive fact in the above statement is that greenhouse gas emissions have continued to escalate. Yet you accept the scientific theory that links this escalation to a heat wave on one continent, but reject the scientific theory that links low solar output to cooling on another. I don't know which theory is correct, but apparently neither does the source you cite. Perhaps you can provide your own analysis showing the link between AGW and regional heat waves which would explain the claimed record-breaking temps in Europe this past June.

for the explanation on the heat waves and the cold waves refer to Piers Corbin video already posted.

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by jackdale

That explains this:

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca...ange-heat-wave

Absolutely, from the article you linked to which has to be the truth

"much of North America experienced a chilly June. Temperatures trended anywhere from a couple of degrees below seasonal to 4 degrees C below normal near the Great Lakes. including Ontario and parts of the U.S. Midwest"

Perhaps this Piers Corbyn chap is on to something Sell stocks in fridge manufacturers, we won't need them shortly, just but the milk on the outside window ledge.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Pete7

Perhaps this Piers Corbyn chap is on to something Sell stocks in fridge manufacturers, we won't need them shortly, just but the milk on the outside window ledge.

Parts of Eurasia and Eastern Europe may see some cooling. Not so much in the rest of the world. From some UK astrophysicists:

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects.

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by Exile

More like conjecture used to bolster a theory which is itself conjecture. The only definitive fact in the above statement is that greenhouse gas emissions have continued to escalate. Yet you accept the scientific theory that links this escalation to a heat wave on one continent, but reject the scientific theory that links low solar output to cooling on another. I don't know which theory is correct, but apparently neither does the source you cite. Perhaps you can provide your own analysis showing the link between AGW and regional heat waves which would explain the claimed record-breaking temps in Europe this past June.

See my post to Pete7.

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

not much change in the fast ice

You have a "fast ice" fixation.

How did you miss more open water and melting of of your beloved fast ice.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

You have a "fast ice" fixation.

How did you miss more open water and melting of of your beloved fast ice.

more melt of the already broken up floaters not much change to the fast perhaps you should do yourself a side by side comparison .

Do you even know what fast ice is ? And no it is not fast moving or fast melting

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by jackdale

You have a "fast ice" fixation.

How did you miss more open water and melting of of your beloved fast ice.

Watched a video last night of an ice breaker stuck just north of Svalbard unable to go further due to 3m of first year ice mixed with multi year ice that they didn't expect to find at this time of year.

No shortage of ice.

Pete

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Parts of Eurasia and Eastern Europe may see some cooling. Not so much in the rest of the world. From some UK astrophysicists:

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535

So N America and the Great Lakes is only a small area not worth considering when the temperature drops 4c in June. This is from the article you posted to support your argument.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Pete7

Watched a video last night of an ice breaker stuck just north of Svalbard unable to go further due to 3m of first year ice mixed with multi year ice that they didn't expect to find at this time of year.

No shortage of ice.

Pete

Pete this is just a posting to forestall the usual cherry picking by jack considering sources .

https://resett.no/2019/07/15/norsk-i...enn-forventet/

https://dagens.klassekampen.no/2019-...tanset-av-isen

Notoriously left leaning pro agw sources . They are reporting the same 3 meter thick sea ice at svalbard.

[conachair]

Originally Posted by Pete7

So N America and the Great Lakes is only a small area not worth considering when the temperature drops 4c in June. .

As far as global temperatures goes, yes.

July looks set to follow June.
https://climate.copernicus.eu/surfac...ture-june-2019

June 2019 was the warmest June on record both for Europe and the globe.

Better to look to science rather than some lone voices completely lacking evidence on the web for what's happening in a warming planet. There is no alternative hypothesis, the planet is heating u and the only smoking gun is humans releasing greenhouse gasses. Nothing else fits.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by newhaul

for the explanation on the heat waves and the cold waves refer to Piers Corbin video already posted.

That's one scientific opinion, from a guy with an advanced degree in astrophysics (according to his Wiki).

Originally Posted by Pete7

Absolutely, from the article you linked to which has to be the truth

No truth, just other scientific opinions that a non-expert forum poster prefers to link to.

Originally Posted by jackdale

Parts of Eurasia and Eastern Europe may see some cooling. Not so much in the rest of the world. From some UK astrophysicists:

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535

Yes, "some" UK astrophysicists -- no doubt qualified -- who render uncertain predictions which "may" happen. Meanwhile another UK astrophysicist -- also presumably qualified -- makes a different prediction. Yet you promote one as scientific truth and berate anyone who advances the other, while unwilling or unable to offer any analysis of your own in support.

Originally Posted by jackdale

See my post to Pete7.

Got it, thanks. All too clear what's going on here (once again). So much for trying to keep these threads about transiting the NWP.