Kirsten Neuschafer Cape George 36 @ 7.9 knots

[Bowdrie]

Yeah, if they end up in the same patterns his boat might have an advantage in lighter air where her boat might not be able to take advantage of its longer waterline.
True, a long way still to go.

[El Pinguino]

Looking at the next few days it seems that the high offshore from southern Brazil is going to grow to the east and join up with that band of high pressure in about 25º south.
The sweet spot to aim for seems to be 25ºS, 30ºW, I'd be applying the '1020 rule' or maybe the '1018 rule' and going for it.

[danstanford]

What is the 1020 rule?

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by danstanford

What is the 1020 rule?

Riding the 1020mb isobar

I noticed some years ago when crossing from NZ to Chile that there was a sweet spot - not too far south where you got the stuffing blown out of you by the strong winds associated with the lows - not too far north where you ended up too close to the highs and an associated lack of wind.

That spot seemed to involve the 1020 isobar.

I think it had been noted by others before me.

Not a perfect system by any means.

I'm not sure how the leading GGR skippers , Abhilash and Kirsten - are dealing with high pressure belt ahead of them or what wx info they have.

[danstanford]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Riding the 1020mb isobar

I noticed some years ago when crossing from NZ to Chile that there was a sweet spot - not too far south where you got the stuffing blown out of you by the strong winds associated with the lows - not too far north where you ended up too close to the highs and an associated lack of wind.

That spot seemed to involve the 1020 isobar.

I think it had been noted by others before me.

Not a perfect system by any means.

I'm not sure how the leading GGR skippers , Abhilash and Kirsten - are dealing with high pressure belt ahead of them or what wx info they have.

Thanks for this, I have never had to be the navigator offshore so it did not resonate with me. To be fair, short of a catastrophic failure of the current systems I will most probably have the best of information should I find myself there. Certainly I shake my head at the thought of these folks looking for wind out there with so little to guide them.

[thomm225]

They were getting weather bulletins earlier from radio operators.

Looks like they still are at least Kirsten is:


From day 171:

n the Atlantic, it’s all up towards the finish! Kirsten, who is receiving both weather faxes and weather information from Peter Mott, is attempting to sail around downwind on an NE route, extending her course to the East but still posting the best fleet average at 150 miles. Abhilash has just passed Port Stanley in the Falklands and is still on a very northerly course towards Trindade, it is too early to make a prediction, but Kirsten has a 600 mile lead with 6,000 miles to go, which would force Abhilash to sail 10% faster than her to catch-up before Les Sables d’Olonne.

[Bowdrie]

Originally Posted by thomm225

but Kirsten has a 600 mile lead with 6,000 miles to go, which would force Abhilash to sail 10% faster than her to catch-up before Les Sables d’Olonne.

According to Live Tracker she is only ~378 NM ahead.
If the wind(s) stay up her longer LWL will continue to pay off.

[notoldbilbo]

It's still all to play for. Headwinds and calms in the 'wrong' places - e.g. across the Dolrums/ITCZ - can turn everything on its head.

We've seen this before....

[El Pinguino]

I just ran their present positions through Predictwinds routing feature.

The exclamation marks are for thunderstorms.

Not perfect as it is set up for motoring if boat speed under 4 knots.

[El Pinguino]

Predictwind rooting info at 1900Z, 3rd March. Motoring removed from the mix.

[El Pinguino]

I would ignore the distance to France but rather concentrate on the distance to the NE corner of Brasil - a 'gate' that they both must go through. On that measure Kirsten is only 75 miles ahead of Abhalish.
I wouldn't like to lay odds on who will get there first.

[Bowdrie]

From the Windy overlay it appears that Kirsten is getting more favorable winds than Tomy.
Although her lead is ~the same as it was ~24 ago

[El Pinguino]

Amazing the difference in the various models. I've used UKMO - the boat icon - in each of these. Positions are next Tuesday.

[notoldbilbo]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Amazing the difference in the various models. I've used UKMO - the boat icon - in each of these. Positions are next Tuesday.

'When a butterfly flaps its wings in the Brazilian rainforest'....


Am I being a heretic for musing that 'the bigger your supercomputer, the bigger are your predictive cockups'....?

[thomm225]

Kirsten may be in a perfect spot here in a couple days based on the Windy Predictions and may have "smooth" sailing for a while.

Meaning she may have good, favorable breezes for the foreseeable future........