Delusion in the older Multi-Hull Market

[flightlead404]

Originally Posted by Shanachie

Nothing wrong with that if you have the money and don't mind spending it. But there are less expensive cars that drive better than a Jaguar

IDK, maybe you have as much knowledge about cars as cats, but there are few production cars in the class that drive better than my XK-R Coupe with 535 hp of supercharged deliciousness. And yes, I've tracked it on a very nice road course.

No I didn't buy it as a status symbol.

Your posts just sound like sour grapes to me.

[rabbi]

Originally Posted by Piscis

Well, i do agree with you on many points. However, while there were price drops on certain boats mid 2020, as far as I remember, Mr. Whiley Sharps market analysis is showing increasing prices since many years, despite worldwide lockdowns, Pandemic and charter company stopping "guaranteed income" programs. Boats in SE Asia are not leaving Marina much since almost two years.

I chartered 3 times in the last year, and got told "you are the first customer since xxx weeks, months". Got great deals so far. E.g. "keep it as long as you like, just stay in cellphone area so we can call you when customer shows up..." Not kidding! Happened with a Lucia 40 in Phuket last year!

In this situation I don't see a reason for increasing prices, at least in SE Asia... But they are asking now same inflated prices like in the USA, where Seller, buyer and broker sitting in the same country..Lucia 40 2017 for 400.000€. That's more than this boat cost new in 2017. And the boat sits there since a year....

Anyway. I decided on not to provide stupid German money like it happened pre crisis 2008. I will FIRE end if this year and will wait at the sideline and keep making reasonable and for me realistic offers to boats I like with money I have.

Worst thing that might happen: I keep my money and boat prices will continue to rise... And we have to stay at our beach condo in Phuket...

John

In the end the market is what it is.

For a correction to happen it will take more supply and less demand. Currently I don't see that on the horizon.

If you are aware of reasonably priced boats on the market that did not sell why don't you make an offer on one? In this market you can't be picky and wait for the perfect boat.
Well, of course you can but then you won't sail in the meantime.

I paid maybe 10% more than I would have paid 3-4 years ago. I decided to pay that premium now (expecting to recover some / most of this on resale) so we don't have to stay home next summer.

[Piscis]

Not to buy the Nautitech Open 40 (Jetset 1) might have been a mistake. A fully equipped 2016 Open 40 for just 210k€ asking was indeed a great opportunity. The other boats on sale (some are still listed or have not been sold) did/do just not fit our requirements (Island Spirit 380, Mahe 36, Java,....).

Yes, we are a bit picky.

There were a couple of reasons why we did not buy. First, it was a bit too early for us. And having tne boat for 2-3 years in a marina with just little use wouldhave eaten up the benefits fast.... Summing up Marina costs, insurance, maintainance and repais would add up to well over 60k in 3 years.

Second, the Open 40 was/is not on top of our wishlist. We sailed all of the possible candidates. And guess what.... she says Bali no. 1, Leopard 40 no.2 , Lagoon 40 no. 3, and then comes the rest...Open 40, Lucia 40... lol Well, i agree with her in many points...

And finally, at that time our prefered boats were just not old enought to approach our financial limits. Most of our prefered cats dropped on the market in 2016+. And i am aiming to buy a 5-6 year old boat for about 50-60% of new boat sticker price when it was produced. I do make offers in that range.

If Owners want more, i am out of the deal. I simply cannot afford more, and i am not willing to buy a boat that is too far off our wishlist, too old or just overprizzed.

You can call that picky if you want. ��

Good luck with your L380!

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by Piscis

...And i am aiming to buy a 5-6 year old boat for about 50-60% of new boat sticker price when it was produced....

You can call that picky if you want. ��

I suspect you will be waiting for a long while if you expect that. I think that % new price will be more like 9+ years old.

[rabbi]

Originally Posted by Piscis

Not to buy the Nautitech Open 40 (Jetset 1) might have been a mistake. A fully equipped 2016 Open 40 for just 210k€ asking was indeed a great opportunity. The other boats on sale (some are still listed or have not been sold) did/do just not fit our requirements (Island Spirit 380, Mahe 36, Java,....).

Yes, we are a bit picky.

There were a couple of reasons why we did not buy. First, it was a bit too early for us. And having tne boat for 2-3 years in a marina with just little use wouldhave eaten up the benefits fast.... Summing up Marina costs, insurance, maintainance and repais would add up to well over 60k in 3 years.

Second, the Open 40 was/is not on top of our wishlist. We sailed all of the possible candidates. And guess what.... she says Bali no. 1, Leopard 40 no.2 , Lagoon 40 no. 3, and then comes the rest...Open 40, Lucia 40... lol Well, i agree with her in many points...

And finally, at that time our prefered boats were just not old enought to approach our financial limits. Most of our prefered cats dropped on the market in 2016+. And i am aiming to buy a 5-6 year old boat for about 50-60% of new boat sticker price when it was produced. I do make offers in that range.

If Owners want more, i am out of the deal. I simply cannot afford more, and i am not willing to buy a boat that is too far off our wishlist, too old or just overprizzed.

You can call that picky if you want. ��

Good luck with your L380!

Our 380 had a base list price of 200k Euro back in 2015. Add options and tax and this particular boat initially sold for 300k €, including gennaker, composite bimini, solar panels, radar, ais, dinghy, watermaker, ...

Your 50-60% rule means your offer would be 150-180k € for a similar boat. I doubt the seller will even bother to answer such an offer.


I have seen two 6 year old Lagoon 380 by DYC asking around 200k that could be negotiated down to 180k but then you get what you pay for. A floating charter wreck sold by the nicest broker in town.
Any respectable charter company sells these boats for at least 210k €.

Asset inflation at work.

[malbert73]

There have always been delusions on either side of the sales equation. During soft markets there’s always sellers who won’t budge on an outrageous price. Now in a seller’s market there are buyers who won’t budge on their expectation of what makes a good deal and blame sellers for being delusional.

Delusional sellers end up paying storage costs while their boat deteriorates and depreciates. but really all they lose is money which is replaceable.

I think the biggest loser is the delusional buyer who misses out on precious months/years of cruising waiting for the perfect price. Going sailing isn’t like driving a car – the experience is priceless, at least in my opinion.

[Tetepare]

Originally Posted by rabbi

I have seen two 6 year old Lagoon 380 by DYC asking around 200k that could be negotiated down to 180k but then you get what you pay for. A floating charter wreck sold by the nicest broker in town.
Any respectable charter company sells these boats for at least 210k €.

.

Yes. I'd been tracking 380s, particularly S2 for years. We jumped on a monohull that became available, but I still watch the 380. And, yes, the prices are sky high now...breaks my heart to think I should have grabbed one three years ago, but nooooo, I figured the prices would drop just a bit more....WRONG.

[rabbi]

Originally Posted by malbert73

I think the biggest loser is the delusional buyer who misses out on precious months/years of cruising waiting for the perfect price. Going sailing isn’t like driving a car – the experience is priceless, at least in my opinion.

Exactly!

This upcoming summer will be the last opportunity for our kids to join us for a longer period. From 2023 on we will be restricted to a few weeks holiday sailing. And even then I would not place my bets that the kids will want to join us - teenagers growing up so you never know!

So for us it's one of those "once in a lifetime" situations which made it easy to swallow the higher than expected cost!

[Piscis]

My 50-60% price calculation is before tax. Most of the boats in the market are sold vat not paid. And I am not planning to pay 25% EU VAT if I not use my boat in EU waters.

The moorings calculated a 5 year old very well equipped charter Leopard 40 with a realistic sales value of 250.000€. Thats about 60% of the new boat price (sticker, not after discounted!) before VAT.

I don't see my equation Soo far off. And I wouldn't consider myself as the biggest Loser in this situation.

[NevilleCat]

In Aus a new Seawind 1000 cost from $215000 in 1999
In the current market you might still pay that for it. Certainly be struggling to find an OK old one for under $180000

[Island Time O25]

The same price dynamic has been happening with cars. They used to depreciate slowly the first 3 to 5 years, then would fall off of a cliff for next 5 years, then would go into a junk price mode, with few exceptions. That was 30-40 years ago. Today they stay at slow depreciation at 7 to 10 years, give or take and the cliff starts at 10 or thereabout. The junk status starts at about 20 and getting longer.

I see it as a sign of general pauperization of the used car crowd. Unable to replace their now 7 to 10 year old car with 3 to 5 year old, as before, they hold on to those for additional years, not putting theirs on the used market, preventing the price drop.

When I first started looking for a boat in the late 90s-early 00s the second price cliff seemed to be 20-30 years old, the first one, about 5 to 7 years old, was out of my reach. Today it seems 5 to 7 year old is considered practically "new" and the current market conditions definitely price it as new. So the first cliff now is at least 10 to 12 years old and the second one looks like 35-40 years.

In 2005 when I finally bought my first boat, I never seriously considered anything older than 1975, i.e. 30 years old. Last year or two while helping a friend find one in the same price range, adjusted for inflation, a 1977 he ended up buying seemed about right for what passes now as "an affordable used boat" if there is ever such a thing for an average Joe. So from 25-30 year old to 40-45 year old in about 20 years time.

This is also a kudo to the boat builders of that era that their boats are practically as good at 45 as they were at 25. Not sure if today's new boats will be as saleable (and sailable) 50 years from now but who knows.

[NevilleCat]

As an additional consequence of the growing popularity of multihulls in particular and exchange rate fluctuations over the last 20years in Aus you could have bought a new Seawind as any of the new models came out, sailed it for 3-5yrs then sold it for what you had paid for it.
Of course if you wanted to replace it.....

[mglonnro]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

This is also a kudo to the boat builders of that era that their boats are practically as good at 45 as they were at 25. Not sure if today's new boats will be as saleable (and sailable) 50 years from now but who knows.

I'm a bit scared of modern (efficient) production methods sealing cabling and other stuff tightly away into inaccessible places. So saleable, sailable, and serviceable would be nice..

[Sand crab]

Originally Posted by mglonnro

I'm a bit scared of modern (efficient) production methods sealing cabling and other stuff tightly away into inaccessible places. So saleable, sailable, and serviceable would be nice..

I saw a video of the Lagoon building process. They had all the floor frame pieces attached to a large crane assembly and lowered them all in place at once. I don't know how they attached them to the hull assembly but I'm thinking it was goo. I expect some other manufacturers take the time to properly glass them in.
Big L does the same with the interior furnishing. For instance they assemble the entire bathroom outside the boat and then plop it in the hull. You can't get back there to glass it in so goo does that job again. Depending on variables these prefab units may be part of a bulkhead. If a structural plywood bulkhead is installed first they put the prefab units on either side creating more inaccessible spaces.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by Sand crab

I saw a video of the Lagoon building process. They had all the floor frame pieces attached to a large crane assembly and lowered them all in place at once. I don't know how they attached them to the hull assembly but I'm thinking it was goo. I expect some other manufacturers take the time to properly glass them in.
Big L does the same with the interior furnishing. For instance they assemble the entire bathroom outside the boat and then plop it in the hull. You can't get back there to glass it in so goo does that job again. Depending on variables these prefab units may be part of a bulkhead. If a structural plywood bulkhead is installed first they put the prefab units on either side creating more inaccessible spaces.

And these spaces are precisely where warm, moist air meets fiberglass cooled by the water. It’s where condensation and out of control black mold growth occurs.

Designed these types of spaces out of my boat.