Delusion in the older Multi-Hull Market

[rabbi]

Originally Posted by Piscis

Thats the result of brookers permanently praying "its a sellers market"...

No. Its the result of more buyers then sellers, and more money in the market then ever before.

If it was just brokers praying some mantra the unsold cats would pile up. But they don't.
Inventory is small, boats entering the market are sometimes gone in hours, and many never even get listed as the seller's broker has a waiting list of clients. Prices are ridiculous and bargains no longer exist.


Real world example, just a few weeks ago:
A 2011 Mahe 36 Evolution was recently listed for an acceptable price in France. I received notifications about it from several websites, and called the broker the next morning to schedule a viewing. Broker said he already had two busy days scheduled just for this boat but would try to squeeze us in.

I called again in the afternoon to confirm the date and the broker said the boat was already sold sight unseen, at full asking price. Boat was delisted two days later.

[sailingharry]

Originally Posted by markpj23

The delusion continues to this day....


Broker listed 15yr old 40ft Leopard that was a mess - didn't bother to clean the boat or even try to address the poop smell permeating the thing - for the 'bargain' price of $299.


Oh yes, and we were just one of 5 groups scheduled to view the boat yesterday.


deep sigh....

So here we are 9 days later, and question remains -- was it a delusional broker, or is the boat sold (maybe to one of the 5 groups on day 1?)


If it's still on the market, maybe delusional. But it's not a really good time of year to look, either (so ask again in 6 months -- if still on the market, then probably delusional). But if it's sold, well, it would seem the broker probably priced it low!


If it's the one in Bradenton, it's still listed as active (but the house we have a contract on didn't shift to "pending" until 2 weeks after the contract was submitted -- so who knows).

[Piscis]

Originally Posted by rabbi

No. Its the result of more buyers then sellers, and more money in the market then ever before.

If it was just brokers praying some mantra the unsold cats would pile up. But they don't.
Inventory is small, boats entering the market are sometimes gone in hours, and many ne

ver even get listed as the seller's broker has a waiting list of clients. Prices are ridiculous and bargains no longer exist.


Real world example, just a few weeks ago:
A 2011 Mahe 36 Evolution was recently listed for an acceptable price in France. I received notifications about it from several websites, and called the broker the next morning to schedule a viewing. Broker said he already had two busy days scheduled just for this boat but would try to squeeze us in.

I called again in the afternoon to confirm the date and the broker said the boat was already sold sight unseen, at full asking price. Boat was delisted two days later.

Well, I disagree. Brokers did talk prices up, even before they actually went up. First it was Irma, then Maria, then Covid, and next Yada yada.

We are having this discussion s since Covid started. And at the begining of the Pandemic, prices did went down, even Brokers stating the opposite. I posted a bunch of links of boats in the Caribbean, the Med and SE Asia, were we did see falling prices. Brokers kept praying for months the market is "hot" and "buy now it won't last long".

Well, that's there job and that's what drives their income. And yes, now everyone with a 20 year old charter wreck jumps on that train and yes, now prices ARE up...though some boats will not be sold for rediciouls amout of cash, because buyers realized something is wrong here...

[Piscis]

BTW, if you are interested in a 2015 Mahe 36 for 165000€, just let me know. The Owner had it on YW for a long time and took it out after he was not able to sell it....

The 165000 was my last known asking price... Though due to brokers Yada yada he might want more now

[smj]

The prices are going up because the buyers are willing to pay the price, end of story. Obvious?

[Piscis]

Nope...

[Piscis]

Originally Posted by smj

The prices are going up because the buyers are willing to pay the price, end of story. Obvious?

Oh...wait wait. I am now the proud owner of a Bali 4.0...

I was wrong. You are right. The market IS hot. Don't buy a boat without offering min. 10% above asking price. Hurry, they won't last long, price reduced to sell, will be gone soon...

[Island Time O25]

There are a lot of crypto zillionaires (at least on paper) and most of them being an adventurous bunch and not averse to all kinds of risk taking (proven by their getting early enough into crypto in the first place) it stands to reason that for them buying a multi even as sailing newbies is in line with their persona. As long as BTC stays above $10,000 those early investors will still have deep enough pockets to buy and keep a multi, especially used one, for $500K or less.

Now, if the crypto market collapses big time, say to $1,000 BTC or less, that'll be whole other ballgame.

[rabbi]

Originally Posted by Piscis

Well, that's there job and that's what drives their income. And yes, now everyone with a 20 year old charter wreck jumps on that train and yes, now prices ARE up...though some boats will not be sold for rediciouls amout of cash, because buyers realized something is wrong here...

you describe a functionla market that works as prices moved up and down regardless of broker talk.

[alctel]

A lot of the new influx of people to boating seem to want catamarans (even if they have no experience on a mono/cat/tri) - are there a lot of youtuber catamarans right now or something?

The market generally is crazy but the multi-hull one seems to be through the roof

[Piscis]

Originally Posted by rabbi

you describe a functionla market that works as prices moved up and down regardless of broker talk.

You say it... "Up and down" would be a functional market. I don't see a down, even situation could demand (worldwide Pandemic with millions of deaths), so I don't see a functional market....

Interested in the Mahe 36? Asking 165k would get you a bit wiggle to the South.... Just let me know, I am just next to the boat next weekend!!!

[double u]

was there ever a bubble that didn't burst? Just curious...

[Piscis]

Originally Posted by double u

was there ever a bubble that didn't burst? Just curious...

Good point. If we start calling this a "bubble", then we are far away from a functional, healthy market.

A functional healthy market will not burst!

But as long as people saying what happens now is normal, and that a boat is worth what just one stupid buyer is willing paying for, then we will not see correction.
Just because someone is willing to pay big $ for a 20 year old charter wreck doesn't mean that wreck I s worth it.

And the one who benefits most from this situation is the broker. Even a seller eventually becomes a buyer again, suffering from what is going on...
Sure, if you see a boat as an investment, ok, go ahead and invest.

But in my opinion it's still a recreational vehicle.

Brokers may not be the only benefitials and only cause of the situation, but they keep pouring oil into this fire with their brokers yada yada....

[rabbi]

Originally Posted by Piscis

You say it... "Up and down" would be a functional market. I don't see a down, even situation could demand (worldwide Pandemic with millions of deaths), so I don't see a functional market....

You said

We are having this discussion s since Covid started. And at the begining of the Pandemic, prices did went down, even Brokers stating the opposite. I posted a bunch of links of boats in the Caribbean, the Med and SE Asia, were we did see falling prices.

So you did see falling prices.
I have seen prices fall, too. Like a 2011 Lipari for 130k Euro, a 2003 Lagoon 380 for 100k Euro. So the market worked.


Broker's talk is just ... talk. The market is not defined by them talking, and not by the sticker prices that people put on their boats. The market is defined by those (few) deals that were actually closed.


With the exception of a short drop in 2020 prices have only climbed. Not only sticker prices but deal prices.
One factor is that crypto and stocks have had a good run, and many people made money from this.

As a buyer I hate this market but it is what it is.

The Mahe you have on file would have been interesting if it was on this side of the pond.
But I am currently closing on a 2015 Lagoon 380 . Don't ask for the price, makes me cry (I pay more than the previous owner paid 5 years ago).

[goboatingnow]

There was no dip in pricing , just the opposite. From the start of Covid it’s been a sellers market. But sure keep engaging in wishful thinking.

Simply because certain sales end up being repriced is not an indication of a change of market conditions. It just means someone was too greedy.

The party is coming to and end , inflation , interest rates , asset bubble bursting , post Covid realities , energy costs.

If you can wait 2 years …..