Prices coming down?

[MicHughV]

...I've been trying to follow this thread...

In my neck of the woods...NE Florida, the current housing market is on a tear...house prices are going up by the week.....new developments crop up every day....if you own an old style concrete block beach house and sell it, it will be immediately torn down and a new Mc Mansion built in it's place....

The small boat market is out of control....your basic 20-30' fishing boat. Dealers can't sell them quick enough....I recently sold a used twin engined fishing boat. It was on the market for less than 12 hours and a buyer drove up from Miami and snagged it. Didn't even try to negotiate.

If there is a money crunch, it certainly is not happening here, but I will say, the sailboat market seems soft to me, but that could be because we are currently approaching peak hurricane season, and sailboats are mostly all hunkered down. The C-19 thing has also put a damper on going any place.

Elsewhere, to my eye, it's business as usual.....ok, some face mask requirements in stores, but not seen anywhere else.

I read today, that the airline industry is showing signs of life again....

Even the good ole' DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq ytd charts all show a continuous upward trend...

So, am I missing something ???

[smj]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

...I've been trying to follow this thread...

In my neck of the woods...NE Florida, the current housing market is on a tear...house prices are going up by the week.....new developments crop up every day....if you own an old style concrete block beach house and sell it, it will be immediately torn down and a new Mc Mansion built in it's place....

The small boat market is out of control....your basic 20-30' fishing boat. Dealers can't sell them quick enough....I recently sold a used twin engined fishing boat. It was on the market for less than 12 hours and a buyer drove up from Miami and snagged it. Didn't even try to negotiate.

If there is a money crunch, it certainly is not happening here, but I will say, the sailboat market seems soft to me, but that could be because we are currently approaching peak hurricane season, and sailboats are mostly all hunkered down. The C-19 thing has also put a damper on going any place.

Elsewhere, to my eye, it's business as usual.....ok, some face mask requirements in stores, but not seen anywhere else.

I read today, that the airline industry is showing signs of life again....

Even the good ole' DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq ytd charts all show a continuous upward trend...

So, am I missing something ???

Yes, your missing the state of the actual economy not the perceived economy

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by MicHughV

...I've been trying to follow this thread...

In my neck of the woods...NE Florida, the current housing market is on a tear...house prices are going up by the week.....new developments crop up every day....if you own an old style concrete block beach house and sell it, it will be immediately torn down and a new Mc Mansion built in it's place....

The small boat market is out of control....your basic 20-30' fishing boat. Dealers can't sell them quick enough....I recently sold a used twin engined fishing boat. It was on the market for less than 12 hours and a buyer drove up from Miami and snagged it. Didn't even try to negotiate.

If there is a money crunch, it certainly is not happening here, but I will say, the sailboat market seems soft to me, but that could be because we are currently approaching peak hurricane season, and sailboats are mostly all hunkered down. The C-19 thing has also put a damper on going any place.

Elsewhere, to my eye, it's business as usual.....ok, some face mask requirements in stores, but not seen anywhere else.

I read today, that the airline industry is showing signs of life again....

Even the good ole' DOW, S&P, and Nasdaq ytd charts all show a continuous upward trend...

So, am I missing something ???

Yes your missing something, not that I disagree with you about what your seeing.

Boats and houses are selling in Australia to, in fact I sold my house for top dollar just two weeks ago, settlement in 3 weeks time, all good right?

Well I hope so BUT theres currently 850k home mortgages on suspension in Australia currently, and remember Australias real estate market is tiny compared to the US, also unemployment is reaching double digits, higher if you take partial employment into account, 1 in 3 Australians are currently receiving some sort of government hand out and the state of Victoria is in a lockdown which is costing a fortune. In regards to the markets look at valuations relative to earnings and tell me the price makes any sense at all. My paper wealth went up approx 70k while I was at sea for the last two weeks, must be a genius right? the world is mad with speculation.

The reality is the Australian economy is on a ventilator BUT alas the great Australian real estate speculation is alive and well for now.

In a nut shell we have had major currency inflation around the world in a very short period of time, it's a adrenaline hit to the patient but it hasnt solved the problem.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by smj

Yes, your missing the state of the actual economy not the perceived economy

Exactly!!!!!

[Fore and Aft]

Dale l am waiting for the boat market to drop here but people are still paying good money for boats. Just last week a broker I know was having trouble valuing a deceased estate yacht. It had sunk last year, been salvaged and then sorta tidied up. It was a production yacht with custom interior and I said you would be lucky to get $10,000. Well the broker listed it and she sold straight away for $22,000 and three people were fighting over her! No survey of course and the funny thing is you can buy the exact same model yacht sail away for $35,000. Makes no sense to me.
Cheers

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Fore and Aft

Dale l am waiting for the boat market to drop here but people are still paying good money for boats. Just last week a broker I know was having trouble valuing a deceased estate yacht. It had sunk last year, been salvaged and then sorta tidied up. It was a production yacht with custom interior and I said you would be lucky to get $10,000. Well the broker listed it and she sold straight away for $22,000 and three people were fighting over her! No survey of course and the funny thing is you can buy the exact same model yacht sail away for $35,000. Makes no sense to me.
Cheers

Nor me, BUT reality is reality. I advertised my house approx 4 weeks ago, had 14 people through in a week and got asking price, surprised me ,but I'm not complaining.

Theres a young couple here in Fiji ,met them in Tahiti, they purchased a new Hanse and sailed it across. Its sold to an Australian sight unseen, their trip to oz is now a delivery.

Maybe time to advertise Sukha properly.

[Heath68]

"daletournier: Bottom line is we have a debt problem trying to be solved by more debt."
This is the thing I can't get my head around. As an economics graduate I can't see a way out that won't devalue the dollar. If China are fixing their currency and the US are spending like mad and not adjusting theirs, at what point will the Yuan become liquid/convertible as a world commodity.. (their digital/online banking systems are already more advanced than the West) because at that point I fear a fundamental shift in the world's trading currency will occur and it will happen quicker than the last time it moved from the £ to the $.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Heath68

"daletournier: Bottom line is we have a debt problem trying to be solved by more debt."
This is the thing I can't get my head around. As an economics graduate I can't see a way out that won't devalue the dollar. If China are fixing their currency and the US are spending like mad and not adjusting theirs, at what point will the Yuan become liquid/convertible as a world commodity.. (their digital/online banking systems are already more advanced than the West) because at that point I fear a fundamental shift in the world's trading currency will occur and it will happen quicker than the last time it moved from the £ to the $.

Absolutely! It's hard for us to imagine things changing rapidly, we have a "familiarity bias ", we cant imagine that the US or the USD wont be the dominant force in the future, but history shows that monetary systems and empires come and go, it's not a new thing.

Familiarity bias's also effect our investment decisions, thus some people find it hard to change direction or consider alternatives strategies because what they do has always been what they do.

I've only read a little of the below article, I just googled familiarity bias and choose the first one that come up.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.val...vesting/%3Famp

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Absolutely! It's hard for us to imagine things changing rapidly, we have a "familiarity bias ", we cant imagine that the US or the USD wont be the dominant force in the future, but history shows that monetary systems and empires come and go, it's not a new thing.

Familiarity bias's also effect our investment decisions, thus some people find it hard to change direction or consider alternatives strategies because what they do has always been what they do.

I've only read a little of the below article, I just googled familiarity bias and choose the first one that come up.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.val...vesting/%3Famp

How about neither. The buzz on the street is the future is a decentralized one.

[longjonsilver]

Originally Posted by daletournier

I would argue central banks are both arsonist and fireman!.


Complicated topic that few, including me fully understand.

Sad commentary on society that we all work for money, but few understand money. Did not Henry Ford say that fewer than one man in a thousand understand our monetary system? We spend all our lives striving for something we dont understand! And worse, our schools dont teach about it which is probably a good thing cuz when they do, it is disinformation meant to lead us astray.

jon

[Pir8te]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Exactly!!!!!

bottom line is what you can get from a buyer that is the "real economy" folks are looking for safe entertainment RV sales and boating sales are through the roof in the US

[smj]

Originally Posted by Pir8te

bottom line is what you can get from a buyer that is the "real economy" folks are looking for safe entertainment RV sales and boating sales are through the roof in the US

The “real economy” encompasses so much more than buying and selling.
To look at sales of RV’s, boats, resort property and the state of the stock market and to come to the conclusion that our economy is doing well is extremely short sighted.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Absolutely! It's hard for us to imagine things changing rapidly, we have a "familiarity bias ", we cant imagine that the US or the USD wont be the dominant force in the future, but history shows that monetary systems and empires come and go, it's not a new thing.

Sure, familiarity bias is a thing, but so is "don't mess with success"... if something works, people stick with it. Also, we must not discount the fact that being the world's go-to currency gives the US a lot of leverage and clout, so it's not something they'll give up easily.

Pivoting back to my "same boat" point: history is only of limited use right now. We are in an unprecedented time of (relative) peace and unmatched overall prosperity. The world is tied together much more tightly by technology. It's much harder to view the Chinese, Russians, Aussies, Ugandans as "they" or the other, when anyone can shoot them an email, or chat with them online, or buy stuff from them. How can a country be the west's nemesis when they make 90% of our stuff?

Improved communications underscores the fact that globally, we have more in common than we have differences, especially when speaking of basic economics.

This is the foundation of my optimism that we'll get through this.

[tomfl]

Originally Posted by Fore and Aft

SNIP

Well the broker listed it and she sold straight away for $22,000 and three people were fighting over her! No survey of course and the funny thing is you can buy the exact same model yacht sail away for $35,000. Makes no sense to me.
Cheers

Second recent post that mentioned 'no survey'. I have to wonder about the wisdom of this. While I know some places will insure with no survey it does create issues and while I have never financed a boat my understanding is that a survey is mandatory for a loan.

I have been looking for an fboat for some time and have seen no movement in asking prices, and by some posts I have seen same for selling prices. As a rule an fboat will often sell with no survey since there are well documented check lists for what can go wrong. But even so prices seem to be stable.

I talked to a respected broker about this and he indicated there is not a lot of room for a lower price for fboats.

The thing is I have basically made the same post several times in this thread; prices for nice boats seem to be holding up well. Every once in a while there is a post about an isolated case of a good deal on a good boat. But there are also lots of other posts about boats quickly selling for asking prices.

I have also seen lots of posts in this thread about the economy and what will happen next. Thing is if you go back in this thread there are lots of posts along the lines of 'wait till next month when the bottom drops out'. Not sure when, or if, that will happen. I can, and will, wait since my Seawind is still the best fit for me; even if COVID-19 makes cruising it during hurricane season problematic.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Sure, familiarity bias is a thing, but so is "don't mess with success"... if something works, people stick with it. Also, we must not discount the fact that being the world's go-to currency gives the US a lot of leverage and clout, so it's not something they'll give up easily.

Pivoting back to my "same boat" point: history is only of limited use right now. We are in an unprecedented time of (relative) peace and unmatched overall prosperity. The world is tied together much more tightly by technology. It's much harder to view the Chinese, Russians, Aussies, Ugandans as "they" or the other, when anyone can shoot them an email, or chat with them online, or buy stuff from them. How can a country be the west's nemesis when they make 90% of our stuff?

Improved communications underscores the fact that globally, we have more in common than we have differences, especially when speaking of basic economics.

This is the foundation of my optimism that we'll get through this.

No one is suggesting we wont get through this, your missing the point, it's not an all or none.