Prices coming down?

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Yes your missing something, not that I disagree with you about what your seeing.

Boats and houses are selling in Australia to, in fact I sold my house for top dollar just two weeks ago, settlement in 3 weeks time, all good right?

Well I hope so BUT theres currently 850k home mortgages on suspension in Australia currently, and remember Australias real estate market is tiny compared to the US, also unemployment is reaching double digits, higher if you take partial employment into account, 1 in 3 Australians are currently receiving some sort of government hand out and the state of Victoria is in a lockdown which is costing a fortune. In regards to the markets look at valuations relative to earnings and tell me the price makes any sense at all. My paper wealth went up approx 70k while I was at sea for the last two weeks, must be a genius right? the world is mad with speculation.

The reality is the Australian economy is on a ventilator BUT alas the great Australian real estate speculation is alive and well for now.

In a nut shell we have had major currency inflation around the world in a very short period of time, it's a adrenaline hit to the patient but it hasnt solved the problem.

Hahaha. Nice. You'll be fine. Just get on the boat and enjoy it while **** sorts itself out. At the moment having money in the marketis risky and holding on too much cash has inflation risk. I wish i had a house to sell.

[Orson]

Originally Posted by daletournier

I would argue central banks are both arsonist and fireman!.

In regards to the virus being an external threat, sure it is, BUT if there wasnt so much negative pent up energy in the form of debt which can be directly linked to central bank policies over the decades we wouldnt now have the very real economic threats that encircle us.

An external threat sooner or later appears, that's life, this is why you prepare in advance to weather a storm, you dont create more kindle.

We are economically fragile due to poor central bank decisions amongst other things. In 1913 the currency supply of the US was effectively given to a private organization.

The doubling of Gold is possibly a canary in the Gold mine regarding inflation or just a by product of negative yielding debt and crazy expansion of M1 money supply, gold really hasnt increased in value a great deal, if at all when compared to currency creation of recent decades, also as a safe haven, zero yield is better than negative yield thus the argument gold dosen't return you anything is now invalid.

It could be argued it's a case of not having "sound money" , something Bitcoin holders would argue (I own no cyptos). Without a governor currency creation is always abused, it's in mans nature, a lack of self restraint.

Label the feds printing money anyway you want ,at the end of the day its unbridled debasement that will/does have consequences. The virus just accelerates what is already in play.

Complicated topic that few, including me fully understand.

Hi Dale (I hope I have that right)!
You worry: “In regards to the virus being an external threat, sure it is, BUT if there wasnt so much negative pent up energy in the form of debt which can be directly linked to central bank policies over the decades we wouldnt now have the very real economic threats that encircle us.”

Yeah, I’ve worried that, too. But my understanding was that before the virus crisis, most measures of US debt were far below those of 2008 and have been moderate except for students and some consumer credit lines. Not to worry, says Buffet type investment sages.

As for the many trillions of US dollar debt added since the new virus crisis, this has been gobbled up almost entirely in the international market because of the safe haven status of the dollar in uncertain times and the fact that international trade is still, almost entirely, settled in dollar terms. Or, in other words, the US greased liquidity needs internationally this way, in the face of sudden and radical deflationary forces brought on by the virus crisis.

My understanding, therefore, is that all this debt added was very necessary and effective at stabilising world markets during a contraction brought on by an exogenous shock to the world economic system.

Or so we’re told. I was doubtful about al this in spring, but as things have stabilised and event unfold, is it sensible to keep believing so in the face of contrary data? “Never fight the Fed,” is a long lived rule for a reason. Betting wrong and one will lose one’s shirt.

A further and neglected aspect of this era of US re-dollarisation of world markets is how a political battle is now set up to be conducted economically.

What am I referring to? The fact that Trump and Pompeo aim to kill the CCP like Reagan won the Cold War against the Soviets: economically, but by by killing China’s ability to export trade in dollars instead of a high tech arms race.

The New Cold War was set up when China refused to follow the 2016 International Court in The Hague ruling in a case which unanimously decided to award the Spratley islands in the South China Sea to the Phillipines

China defied that as an outlaw nation! Then came hiding an international virus thread that China probably engineered, or at least hid to its advantage in concluding the US trade treaty. And then came the National Security law that makes Hong King into its slave state, also against treaty.

“Threes strikes and you’re out!” As American’s are tempted to say when it comes to fair and righteous play.

China’s now practically almost isolated, in the military sense. The QUAUD+1 nations arranged against China are India, Australia (and New Zealand), Japan, (Indonesia?), the US, and plus one now with the UK.

Last July 23rd, at the Nixon Presidential Library came Pompeo’s summary address that the cause of Hong Kong and human rights is now taken up in the New Cold War against China.

And interestingly the Oxford-Harvard-Stanford historian turned pundit and syndicated columnist, Niall Ferguson — who has also been teaching regularly at a university in Beijing — has presciently been calling this a “New Cold War” with China since early 2019. He reports that no Chinese official has rejected or criticised that label.

Pompeo says the US will use Hong Kong as a demonstration project to convince China that the US can staunch the export economic lifeline to China’s economy, just as the US has done so using the BIS (Bank of International Settlements in Switzerland) to kill Iran’s trade and to kill Venezuela’s trade.

This object lesson will then be pressed on China. Yield or the US will “go nuclear and kill its export trade.

President Xi will either fold or the princelings and thugs of the CCP will force him out and a reform storm in China will be forced on the ruling elite to save control of the country from economic collapse. Or at least that’s how I understand the plan.

All of this will have the great salutary effect of helping to restore US industry to our security zone of North America, remove China’s mega billions from their propaganda campaign poisoning, censoring, and manipulating US media; remove the CCP from positions to steal our IP and science and technology. And finally, it will kill the way CCP has subsidised Democrat political corruption (Hunter Biden, for example) and the foreign subsidising of Marxist Educrats in higher education.

I’m yet to read discussion, much less recognition, of all these positive Trumpian political effects flowing back into rebalancing corrupted US politics, downstream in cultural change from the synergies of properly managing this external shock of the CCP virus crisis. It ain’t no old fashioned Cold War like George Kennan’s 45 years of containment, either"

Breathtaking ingenuity, is it not? Trump and Pompeo have decided to back Chinese dissidents over Hong Kong and “Go for broke,” as Solomon Yue puts it, and kill the global menace of the CCP! (See his recent Epoch Times, American Though Leaders interview on YouTube.)

Bold! Amazing. Confounding. “I never though of that!” Stupefying! Genius if it works...(True - conditions are attached.) All of these, risky, grandiose implications.... And so many “smart” people laugh at Trump... LOL!

[Orson]

Originally Posted by Fore and Aft

Dale l am waiting for the boat market to drop here but people are still paying good money for boats. Just last week a broker I know was having trouble valuing a deceased estate yacht. It had sunk last year, been salvaged and then sorta tidied up. It was a production yacht with custom interior and I said you would be lucky to get $10,000. Well the broker listed it and she sold straight away for $22,000 and three people were fighting over her! No survey of course and the funny thing is you can buy the exact same model yacht sail away for $35,000. Makes no sense to me.
Cheers

Well,a boat is both a longer term recreation investment, as well as a short term safe refuge in a pandemic.

Therefore, Local boats sell at a premium. If they require travel, however, during a hazardous crisis, then there are bargains selling cheaper further away.

I’m eager to get going on my find too, before the pending vaccine is announced and reverses the risk discount, and my arbitrage opportunity vanishes.

[Yihang]

Actually that all sounds very exciting. I'm excited. I have a lot invested on the S&P500 and nothing in the Chinese market. When I was working in the states I made it a point to buy innovative locally made products when i could find them. I have two leather jackets from Golden Bear in SF and a bunch of ultralite hiking gear made in Maine, awesome stuff.

Having said that reality will be disappointing. Walmart is 70-80% made in China, the 20% being food. Unfortunately I was not able to shop at a Walmart locally because there wasn't one in San Francisco or NYC. Sadly the good locally made stuff is not very accessible and you really need to do your research. Funnily enough wall mart seemed to be everywhere in Utah and Arizona where there is more trump support. I shop everyday at a Walmart in China. Weird world. I don't think this trade war is going to go anywhere.

Having said that. I would vote for trump simply because of entertainment value, I hope Ivanka, jared and pompeo are renewed for next season too, love them. International trade will happen behind leather covered doors as it has always been.

Peace

[Yihang]

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[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by Yihang

Having said that. I would vote for trump simply because of entertainment value, I hope Ivanka, jared and pompeo are renewed for next season too, love them. International trade will happen behind leather covered doors as it has always been.

Peace

You know, your posts are starting to sound a tad trollish. You might want to stop introducing the election into every second post.

[Yihang]

Sorry. Tolling the Troll trap. My bad.

Done.

[Lake-Effect]

Orson's correct about US debt being gobbled up readily, and he makes some important points, and I can even agree about the need to challenge some of China's provocations, but then it turns into a Clive Cussler novel. It's not a repeat of Star Wars, and I can't see anyone commercially out-competing China at this point, if that's the game.


Another take on the future of the USD, and hopefully some reassurance for Dale.

[Yihang]

"Beware: Anger, Fear, Aggression – The Dark Side, Are They."

All this talk reminds me of starwars for some reason. Did you guys know the Lucas art museum in LA is designed by a Chinese design firm i use to work for 10 years ago.

The force works in mysterious ways.

I guess what im saying is behind all the posturing we are all linked inextricably these days.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Orson's correct about US debt being gobbled up readily, and he makes some important points, and I can even agree about the need to challenge some of China's provocations, but then it turns into a Clive Cussler novel. It's not a repeat of Star Wars, and I can't see anyone commercially out-competing China at this point, if that's the game.


Another take on the future of the USD, and hopefully some reassurance for Dale.

I dont know which way the usd is going to go short term, never said I did. The world currently needs usd, the world has borrowed in usd BUT the need for the dollar dosen't insure it holds its value (purchasing power)AND that value is relative, meaning we are comparing to other currencies...its often said "the Usd is the prettiest horse in the glue factory ".

Keep in mind that a strong dollar relative to other world currencies isnt nessacarily a great think for the world that needs to pay debt back in Usd.

[Fore and Aft]

Meanwhile here in Australia I can't see prices dropping for a while. This article below explains why and just the fact I am turning work away makes me think it's true.
That article could have been written about our family and friends. We were supposed to go to South Africa for a Safari in October. But now it is going to be a Queensland camping adventure. Already we have upgraded our tent and some of our camping gear. Money that we would have spent in Soouth Africa is now being spent here.
Cheers
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_...9001?id=547523

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Fore and Aft

Meanwhile here in Australia I can't see prices dropping for a while. This article below explains why and just the fact I am turning work away makes me think it's true.
That article could have been written about our family and friends. We were supposed to go to South Africa for a Safari in October. But now it is going to be a Queensland camping adventure. Already we have upgraded our tent and some of our camping gear. Money that we would have spent in Soouth Africa is now being spent here.
Cheers
https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_...9001?id=547523

Hi mate, here comes my "pessimistic take" again.

Although I believe that this internal spending is happening, will it continue? At some stage the injection of cash through stimulus and super draw comes to an end, then what happens?

Sooner or later 800,000 plus mortgages come off suspension etc.

Btw, Lake effect and Switzer could be the same person, the glass is always half full[emoji16].

Switzer is always a perma bull BUT his business relies on him being so, Imho his perspective is always bias, he cherry picks data and only interviews people that support is economic views.

The reality is no one has a clue how all this turns out, including me, but everyone has an opinion, I just got my haircut here in Fiji and the barber educated me on what's happening, it's clearly explained in the Koran, and the virus didnt come from China, it come from Mohammed, it's to punish us and wont go away anytime soon....BUT the good news is , the haircut only cost me $5fjd!

Btw, I phoned your mate Colin in Moololahbah the other day as part of exploring options.

[Fore and Aft]

Hi Dale just my take but I think that mortgage crisis has been coming for years. I have mates with huge debt that I just wonder how they can afford to keep servicing it. I just wonder how long before the crash.
$5 Fijian is a good price for a hair cut, I just got mine done yesterday in Mooloolaba and that cost $16 Fijian ($11 AU) which I was happy with. The barber had no view on the virus, surprisingly as he came from Taiwan.
Colin mentoned you rang.
I know you are good at doing the right thing but just look what happened to these clowns trying to get into Queensland.
Cheers
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/austr...?ocid=msedgntp

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by Yihang

Actually that all sounds very exciting. I'm excited. I have a lot invested on the S&P500 and nothing in the Chinese market. When I was working in the states I made it a point to buy innovative locally made products when i could find them. I have two leather jackets from Golden Bear in SF and a bunch of ultralite hiking gear made in Maine, awesome stuff.

Having said that reality will be disappointing. Walmart is 70-80% made in China, the 20% being food. Unfortunately I was not able to shop at a Walmart locally because there wasn't one in San Francisco or NYC. Sadly the good locally made stuff is not very accessible and you really need to do your research. Funnily enough wall mart seemed to be everywhere in Utah and Arizona where there is more trump support. I shop everyday at a Walmart in China. Weird world. I don't think this trade war is going to go anywhere.

Having said that. I would vote for trump simply because of entertainment value, I hope Ivanka, jared and pompeo are renewed for next season too, love them. International trade will happen behind leather covered doors as it has always been.

Peace

That's because of the real estate prices. A large box store like that traditionally didn't do well in NYC or San Fran because of the cost of the real estate footprint vx the shopping attitudes of the residents.

You CAN shop at a Walmart in NYC using public transportation.

$5 and 15-20 mins from Port Authority is the Walmart in Secacus NJ

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by Chotu

That's because of the real estate prices. A large box store like that traditionally didn't do well in NYC or San Fran because of the cost of the real estate footprint vx the shopping attitudes of the residents.

You CAN shop at a Walmart in NYC using public transportation.

$5 and 15-20 mins from Port Authority is the Walmart in Secacus NJ

That is true. We have a 'city target' which is like a condensed Walmart.

Anyway, the point is the so called trade war is largely posturing from both sides where as on the ground I just bought a kilo of Australian beef in a Walmart in Beijing for 15% cheaper than Chinese Beef and Devondale(Australian milk) has always been cheaper than local milk. If you watch skynews you would think China put an 80% tarif on everything coming out of Australia and it's killing aussie farmers.

What always happen is after behind closed doors talks both sides come out and declare victory and go about life as usual. Americans need their socks and underwear, Chinese need their milk and beef. Let's all be real and get on with it.

I hope that wasn't too trollish. Just obervations.