Prices coming down?

[Sand crab]

Way back someone mentioned that the caca would hit the air convection device when the US debt held by foreign countries was called in. Is that possible? I thought the debt was T-bills and bonds. It's not like a bank that wants to call in a loan which also has it's own issues.

[Chotu]

Another datapoint:

My Gulfstar sold to the first people who looked at it for full asking price. Admittedly I was fair about the asking price, but there is no slowing down the booming boat market.

[smj]

Originally Posted by Chotu

Another datapoint:



My Gulfstar sold to the first people who looked at it for full asking price. Admittedly I was fair about the asking price, but there is no slowing down the booming boat market.

No slowing it down? [emoji23] that’s what they said about the housing market in 2006!

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by smj

No slowing it down? [emoji23] that’s what they said about the housing market in 2006!

*This summer

Anything can happen in the long run of course

[MicHughV]

I just sold my fishing boat....it was listed on the market for less than 12 hours....I got $7K more for it then when I purchased it and the buyer was happy to pay it..I was dumbfounded.....

I don't know about the sailboat market, but the fishing boat market is hot !!!

[smj]

I bought a resort beach lot a few days before Covid really became serious. I can now sell that lot for 2-2.5 times what I paid for it. It didn’t increase because the economy is doing great, so why did it increase?

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Sand crab

Way back someone mentioned that the caca would hit the air convection device when the US debt held by foreign countries was called in. Is that possible? I thought the debt was T-bills and bonds. It's not like a bank that wants to call in a loan which also has it's own issues.

No ,they cant just call the debt in, it's not like a margin call. But they can dump their treasury holdings on the market , but that's also self damaging. Countries like Russia are undoing or off loading their US treasury positions but in a controlled manner.

[MicHughV]

real estate prices in my neck of the woods are flying thru' the roof.....they go "up" by the week.....supply and demand ??...who knows...properties sell within a week of being put on the market....I could not even begin to explain why........
I'm talking a 50' x 100' lot with a single story 1200 SF house....now selling for $450-$475.....about 1/2 mile from beach....this is not my gig.....so have no explanation for it....

[smj]

Another example of income inequality? The rich are spending stupid prices for houses, boats etc. while 1 out of 5 renters are in danger of eviction.
Maybe the virus only financially affects people below a certain income?

[MicHughV]

that's a tough call....I think the issue is the hourly wage worker is out of job.....waiter....etc.....but the more established worker..engineer.....nurse...etc..is still gainfully employed...but I freely admit...I don't have a clue....I would have thought with this pandemic around, pretty much everything would have ground to a halt.....but that is clearly not the case.....I have no idea where all this money is coming from.....houses ...boats...etc.....are being snapped up left, right and center...

at the end of the day.....it's not so much what you earn on a day to day basis...but how much you have socked away in savings..investments and the like...the guy that bought my fishing boat...paid cash...no loan.....so that money must have been socked away somewhere...your average waiter type person would not have been able to do that..where their money hoard comes from....I simply have no idea...

it seems that people that might have plowed that money into some or other investment vehicles have instead opted to purchase houses...boats...tangible assets.....not sure....

in my neck of the woods, there are apparently a lot of affluent folk....where their money comes from , I have no clue....but it's plainly obvious, that they have plenty of it...and there are a surprisingly lot of them....not just a handful, but a multitude of them....100's.....1,000's....who knows....a lot !!

I have never walked amongst those people or otherwise fraternized with them....so their standard of living is completely alien to me...but am grateful for their existence, as they clearly make it possible for others to earn a living....

to me.....having $10 in my pocket makes me feel rich...to others....it might take $1,000 or even more...

hey, you can't take it with you...might as well spend it on something...

[Yihang]

Wealth is actually pretty good at growing itself in a stable economy. If your family is from any of the coastal cities chances are you are sitting on millions in real estate inheritance and that stuff accumulates very nicely between generations. I always wonder how many of the young people around 30 cruising around simply didnt get a 1/3 cut of a grandparents estate sales.

Now with the Covid-19 crisis effecting mostly 70+Yo.......I wonder.

Just one scenario. Lets say grandpas very average townhouse in San Francisco that goes for 1.2 million. Dad buys two rental properties and puts 200k in ETFs. Repeat that for a couple generations and assuming you don't have 5 kids. The great grand kids are sitting on a gold mine.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by smj

Another example of income inequality? The rich are spending stupid prices for houses, boats etc. while 1 out of 5 renters are in danger of eviction.
Maybe the virus only financially affects people below a certain income?

Generally speaking, yes, it's the young and low-wage people who have been worst hurt financially. We in the boat-owning demographic, not so much.

The shutdowns and layoffs are the main reason, but this crisis has also moved up the timeline for the looming fact that in the west we are running out of decent-paying jobs for everyone who wants one.

There will always be income inequality in societies where we're free to do and be what we want to do/be; but letting one class do all the hurting and front-line grunt-work while the rest of us can hide and work from home in safety, and update our toys... that ain't right.

[Yihang]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Generally speaking, yes, it's the young and low-wage people who have been worst hurt financially. We in the boat-owning demographic, not so much.

The shutdowns and layoffs are the main reason, but this crisis has also moved up the timeline for the looming fact that in the west we are running out of decent-paying jobs for everyone who wants one.

There will always be income inequality in societies where we're free to do and be what we want to do/be; but letting one class do all the hurting and front-line grunt-work while the rest of us can hide and work from home in safety, and update our toys... that ain't right.

Go do a STEM degree in college kids! Any double income couple with a STEM degree will be well on their way to wealth.

[Island Time O25]

With expected inflation, once the stimulus trillions are settled in the economy, those who have cash are eager to put it into tangible assets of which property is up there in terms of the long run. The million $ question with this strategy is that one never knows which neighborhoods or types of property will be in demand X years from now. We have half of downtown upscale ($4,000 to $10,000) rental units empty and if the remote employment gets established for high paying IT and management jobs who knows if those now units will have to be rented to Section 8 tenants at $2,000 to get any rent at all. And that $2,000 probably wouldn't even cover condo fees and taxes.

Also with all the disturbances in the urban areas we may yet see a migration back to the suburbs and further exoburbs. Just as high gas prices started or speeded up back to the downtown trend, the violence and other city specific problems may speed up the reverse process.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Island Time O25

Also with all the disturbances in the urban areas we may yet see a migration back to the suburbs and further exoburbs. Just as high gas prices started or speeded up back to the downtown trend, the violence and other city specific problems may speed up the reverse process.

I don't know about that; many millenials and Gen Z have adopted a new urban and often car-less lifestyle, enough to drive gentrification, more urban parks, bike lanes, better public transport, reinvestment in urban schools... and this new cohort draws in many small businesses and services to support them.

A redeveloped and more livable urban core is also attractive to seniors. The suburbs by contrast are isolating.

Then again, the explosion of work-from-home means that smaller, more affordable but vibrant cities would be very attractive.

Caveat - my experience is mainly with larger Canadian and European cities. I have little experience with cities where divisions are more stark and entrenched.