Prices coming down?

[riki]

Originally Posted by tomfl

Me too. I keep posting the same thing. I am looking for some flavor of an fboat ranging from a C24 MkI to a C36 including fboats from Farrier. Been doing it for a couple of years. Since I have a Seawind cat I am in no hurry and the key for me is a killer deal.

When I see posts about million dollar boats going for three quarters of a million now I am not sure what to make of it since knowing if advertised boat prices are hard or soft; less yet what shape the advertised boat is in.

I get it that fboats can be put on a trailer and stored for next to nothing so there is less motivation on the sellers part; which is to some extent why I want one.

Not saying there will not be a significant price drop as time passes; just that so far I have not seen it. And I am not holding my breath.

When you find out, please let me know

Originally Posted by Kimo_Kai

If you read the article, and are swayed by it's premise, then the correct question is not "where" but rather "when".

Kimo
Marooned on Maui

I read the article, this doesn't mean i have to agree.
But what is the bottom line? People that could NOT afford a boat before can now get the dream for dirty cheap while who could afford a boat before is now in misery and comndemned to stay on land? Do you really believe that who own a boat that worth something is going just to abandon it?

[Kimo_Kai]

Originally Posted by riki

When you find out, please let me know



I read the article, this doesn't mean i have to agree.
But what is the bottom line? People that could NOT afford a boat before can now get the dream for dirty cheap while who could afford a boat before is now in misery and comndemned to stay on land? Do you really believe that who own a boat that worth something is going just to abandon it?

Sounds impossible right? You should have visited Florida in 2009. It wasn't just boats. It was condos, farms, houses, RV's, Horses, tractors, etc.

Sometimes, in the course of events and booms and crashes, there are no buyers for certain things and the "worth something" part weighed against unafordable carying costs creates a window of opportunity for people who may or may not have been able to afford a boat before.

Folks who wait for those cyclical windows in time, to aquire assets, and who have cash as opposed to debt, tend to find some very, very good deals.

Often, folks who "could afford" a boat before, really only had debt or a house of cards, and have "condemned" themselves to "stay on land". Ability to "afford" comes in levels in my opinion. We don't have to agree on what that is.

No one can say for sure if one of those windows of opportunity is coming anytime soon so by all means, cling to your opinion. It has happened before though and that was without the fun new fact that there's not a whole bunch of places you can actually sail to on a boat these days. Any predictions for how that's going to evolve? How might that add "don't wanters" to the mix?

For all of the current boat owners out there, I will hope this never happens and that the author of the article I posted is clueless.

Let's mark our calandars and check back here in June 2022.

[riki]

Originally Posted by Kimo_Kai

Sounds impossible right? You should have visited Florida in 2009. It wasn't just boats. It was condos, farms, houses, RV's, Horses, tractors, etc.

Sometimes, in the course of events and booms and crashes, there are no buyers for certain things and the "worth something" part weighed against unafordable carying costs creates a window of opportunity for people who may or may not have been able to afford a boat before.

Folks who wait for those cyclical windows in time, to aquire assets, and who have cash as opposed to debt, tend to find some very, very good deals.

Often, folks who "could afford" a boat before, really only had debt or a house of cards, and have "condemned" themselves to "stay on land". Ability to "afford" comes in levels in my opinion. We don't have to agree on what that is.

No one can say for sure if one of those windows of opportunity is coming anytime soon so by all means, cling to your opinion. It has happened before though and that was without the fun new fact that there's not a whole bunch of places you can actually sail to on a boat these days. Any predictions for how that's going to evolve? How might that add "don't wanters" to the mix?

For all of the current boat owners out there, I will hope this never happens and that the author of the article I posted is clueless.

Let's mark our calandars and check back here in June 2022.

You can't compare the financial crisis of 2009 with what it's happening now: now the situation is affecting every single person/company and this means that there will be in all fields measures to contain the economic fallout of the virus. Just as an example this morning i went to pay my marina fees for the year and, surprise, i got a 50% discount for the 2 months of quarantine and they told me to come back in one week for payment because they are planning new fees. So it will be cheaper to have a boat in Greece. I guess most marinas in the world will react in a similar way, as i can imagine loans being renegotiated. Realistically prices will slightly decrease mostly because of the number of vessels in the market (charter companies) but if someone needs to abandon his boat because he suddenly went broke as consquence of the covid, i am pretty sure that he was already in nasty waters before the virus; and as a side note, i can imagine how maintained might be that vessel.
But ok, we can meet here in 2022: i will spend part of this time sailing in the Med.

PS: by the way, in EU almost everything is restarting and people are already filling bars, restaurants, shopping malls (personally worried about that). Quarantine might have "side effects" that we can't tell yet......i would not be surprised if a lot of people will run to enjoy again the pleasures of life and freedom. And that can include a vessel that it's also the best way to escape from the virus.

[Kimo_Kai]

"You can't compare the financial crisis of 2009 with what it's happening now"
-riki


Agreed! The US only injected about one trillion USD in stimulus that time (when you could pick up a boat for nothing). This time, if you count what The Fed is doing, the US is already injecting over six trillion USD and another three trillion USG is being worked out. That's nine trillion USD. Nine times what was called for in 2009.

Most people can't visualize a trillion. If you spent a million dollars, every day, since Jesus was born, you still would not have spent one trillion dollars. It is 1000 X One Billion. We just spent six of those. So you are 100% correct. One should not compare the Great Recession (when you could pick up a boat for nothing) with the horrendous downturn, which has only just begun, and will be orders of magnitude worse than 2009. You have not seen anything yet. See you in June 2022.

Until then, enjoy sailing The Med! That's a great boat too. Congratulations and mahalo nui for bringing that model to my attention. It was way ahead of it's time, in my opinion. If you are not planning on selling your SV, and your finances are bulletproof, and everything goes back to normal quickly as you suggest, none of this should matter to you. You will be happily sailing.

I will be stranded here on Maui...keeping my powder dry.

Kimo
Marooned on Maui

[riki]

Originally Posted by Kimo_Kai

"You can't compare the financial crisis of 2009 with what it's happening now"
-riki


Agreed! The US only injected about one trillion USD in stimulus that time (when you could pick up a boat for nothing). This time, if you count what The Fed is doing, the US is already injecting over six trillion USD and another three trillion USG is being worked out. That's nine trillion USD. Nine times what was called for in 2009.


Kimo
Marooned on Maui

Ok Kimo, understood where you want to get: with these proportions you are not only hoping to get a boat for free, but even being paid for that!! Just joking mate.
As said i think that it's really difficult to understand what is going to happen and how long it will take, but probably boat prices at a certain point might be the last of the problems, and not only boat prices.
Noʻu ka hauʻoli for the congrats, yes, my small cat is great (at least at my eyes): i didn't have to break the bank and i would never abandon my economical comfort zone for an asset such as a boat, so not thinking to sell.
Good luck with your hunt

[Kimo_Kai]

Originally Posted by riki

Ok Kimo, understood where you want to get: with these proportions you are not only hoping to get a boat for free, but even being paid for that!! Just joking mate.
As said i think that it's really difficult to understand what is going to happen and how long it will take, but probably boat prices at a certain point might be the last of the problems, and not only boat prices.
Noʻu ka hauʻoli for the congrats, yes, my small cat is great (at least at my eyes): i didn't have to break the bank and i would never abandon my economical comfort zone for an asset such as a boat, so not thinking to sell.
Good luck with your hunt

Mahalo nui loa riki! If you sail to Maui, give me a shout. E komo mai.

[riki]

Originally Posted by Kimo_Kai

Mahalo nui loa riki! If you sail to Maui, give me a shout. E komo mai.

[Boat Guy]

Originally Posted by slug

I just had a 50 footer surveyed and it was 4700 dollars

Care to share location and the make /model of boat? That seems very high for a survey.

Originally Posted by ranchero76

YachtWorld and few other websites:

**Lagoon 560 - $699k make an offer - never seen 560 at this price listed. Few others in this price range too.

Can't speak about the others but this was a hurricane boat that was under water to the salon.

Originally Posted by scargo

I just saw some new (2020) catamarans (also monohulls) for sale in Spain by Catamaran Center broker that are cheaper than equivalent ones from 2016 advertised in Yachtworld.

Care to share location?

Originally Posted by Kimo_Kai

"You can't compare the financial crisis of 2009 with what it's happening now"
-riki
...This time, if you count what The Fed is doing, the US is already injecting over six trillion USD and another three trillion USG is being worked out. That's nine trillion USD. Nine times what was called for in 2009.
I will be stranded here on Maui...keeping my powder dry.

Kimo

Kimo, (I'm from Oahu) I can't believe the money the US Gov has thrown at this...Why am I the only one nervous?


Regarding used cat prices, I think it's also a diff mindset...We've had so many non-boaters enter the market that think boats are appreciating assets and a lot of naive buyers (IMO) that agree with them...That has to chip away at some point or it will mean hyper inflation has kicked in...

I'm looking for deals >52 and > 2014. ..... We'll see what happens.

[slug]

Originally Posted by Boat Guy

Care to share location and the make /model of boat? That seems very high for a survey.




Can't speak about the others but this was a hurricane boat that was under water to the salon.





Care to share location?





Kimo, (I'm from Oahu) I can't believe the money the US Gov has thrown at this...Why am I the only one nervous?


Regarding used cat prices, I think it's also a diff mindset...We've had so many non-boaters enter the market that think boats are appreciating assets and a lot of naive buyers (IMO) that agree with them...That has to chip away at some point or it will mean hyper inflation has kicked in...

I'm looking for deals >52 and > 2014. ..... We'll see what happens.

UK
lymington

Haul boat , 5 days dry storage
Pressure wash bottom
Moisture test laminate
Drop rudder , pressure test rudder , inspect rudder stock and bearing
Rig survey
All sails to sail loft for inspection
General boat and inventory survey , documentation survey
Launch boat
Sea trial

If you can do this cheaper tell me your secret

[Kimo_Kai]

Kimo, (I'm from Oahu) I can't believe the money the US Gov has thrown at this...Why am I the only one nervous?


Regarding used cat prices, I think it's also a diff mindset...We've had so many non-boaters enter the market that think boats are appreciating assets and a lot of naive buyers (IMO) that agree with them...That has to chip away at some point or it will mean hyper inflation has kicked in...

I'm looking for deals >52 and > 2014. ..... We'll see what happens.[/QUOTE]


Boat Guy! Well, given that gold has jumped over $250 in the last 60 days, I don't think you are alone. If you sail by The Valley Isle, give me a shout and I'll paddle out because I'm...

Kimo
Marooned on Maui

[Heath68]

Originally Posted by Kimo_Kai

"You can't compare the financial crisis of 2009 with what it's happening now"
-riki


Agreed! The US only injected about one trillion USD in stimulus that time (when you could pick up a boat for nothing). This time, if you count what The Fed is doing, the US is already injecting over six trillion USD and another three trillion USG is being worked out. That's nine trillion USD. Nine times what was called for in 2009.

Most people can't visualize a trillion. If you spent a million dollars, every day, since Jesus was born, you still would not have spent one trillion dollars. It is 1000 X One Billion. We just spent six of those. So you are 100% correct. One should not compare the Great Recession (when you could pick up a boat for nothing) with the horrendous downturn, which has only just begun, and will be orders of magnitude worse than 2009. You have not seen anything yet. See you in June 2022.

Until then, enjoy sailing The Med! That's a great boat too. Congratulations and mahalo nui for bringing that model to my attention. It was way ahead of it's time, in my opinion. If you are not planning on selling your SV, and your finances are bulletproof, and everything goes back to normal quickly as you suggest, none of this should matter to you. You will be happily sailing.

I will be stranded here on Maui...keeping my powder dry.

Kimo
Marooned on Maui

Interesting observation.. why do you quote 2022? Surely if this change is worldwide and so immediate then it would be full flow next year?
Also if people are fearful of financial security and stop buying this lengthens a recession but if people are already going back to work (and after a lockdown) wont people be keen to get out there and spend or change lifestyles?

[AndrewA2]

Seems that cat prices are pretty much the same as this period last year:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5L58VLy7ugo

[Chotu]

Everyone still missing the big driver...


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...p/CA27C0DHn0K/

[boatpoker]

Boats have started launching in Ontario over the last couple of weeks.

I was in three different harbours over the last two days. All three give siminlar reports ...... about 30% of the boats will not launch this year. Slip payments are late and collecting is becoming a problem for the marinas. I've seen 9 bailiff's notices on boats in the yards already.

It's coming.

[Kimo_Kai]

Originally Posted by Heath68

Interesting observation.. why do you quote 2022? Surely if this change is worldwide and so immediate then it would be full flow next year?
Also if people are fearful of financial security and stop buying this lengthens a recession but if people are already going back to work (and after a lockdown) wont people be keen to get out there and spend or change lifestyles?

By all means be ready to shop earlier! 2022 just seemed like a good time when plenty of data would be in and we would be able to see who had called it right. As the next two posts after yours indicate, right now it's different strokes for different folks. There are regional differences, generational differences, covid, and stimulus perversions. It's not 2008.

I can't predict what people will be keen to do with their money but right now the USA savings rate has made it's highest jump ever. Perverted reasons? Yes. Will it last? IDK