Prices coming down?

[Kimo_Kai]

Originally Posted by boatpoker

Boats have started launching in Ontario over the last couple of weeks.

I was in three different harbours over the last two days. All three give siminlar reports ...... about 30% of the boats will not launch this year. Slip payments are late and collecting is becoming a problem for the marinas. I've seen 9 bailiff's notices on boats in the yards already.

It's coming.

This is the kind of reporting that is priceless. Thank You.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by boatpoker

Boats have started launching in Ontario over the last couple of weeks.

I was in three different harbours over the last two days. All three give siminlar reports ...... about 30% of the boats will not launch this year. Slip payments are late and collecting is becoming a problem for the marinas. I've seen 9 bailiff's notices on boats in the yards already.

It's coming.

I’m sorry Ontario’s economy was decimated. In the USA, it’s as crazy as you see but we all still have plenty of cash for boats.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by Kimo_Kai

right now the USA savings rate has made it's highest jump ever. Perverted reasons? Yes. Will it last? IDK

You know why, right?

All the people that typically live hand to mouth took their stimulus checks and put them in savings. They did not spend the money as was expected. This was a surprise to economists.

[Kimo_Kai]

Originally Posted by Chotu

You know why, right?

All the people that typically live hand to mouth took their stimulus checks and put them in savings. They did not spend the money as was expected. This was a surprise to economists.

Yes Chotu exactly. The economy is perverted by covid and stimulus. I was giving an example of the perversion we are seeing which makes it difficult to predict exact timing of asset devaluation.

There is always money out there for boats. There are a large number of people who will be even better off due to recent events. My guess (and that is all it can be) is that, in due course, there will be more boat owners that are in trouble than there will be buyers for boats at today's prices. It a supply and demand issue. They do arise as with cats after the hurricanes. It happens both ways. Let's talk in June of 2022 and see who guessed right.

I take it that you already own the boat you want to keep for the next few years?

Kimo
Marooned on Maui

[Kimo_Kai]

Originally Posted by Chotu

I’m sorry Ontario’s economy was decimated. In the USA, it’s as crazy as you see but we all still have plenty of cash for boats.

Also Chotu, another big reason that my gut tells me there will be more boats than boat wanters soon, is that after this (also perverted by covid and stimulus) rush of retiring baby boomers who want to escape their lives, and who are snapping up RVs and sailboats robustly at the moment and at today's prices, is over, and they, and everyone who already owns a boat, sees what cruising is like post covid (and with tons of neub boomers floating around), there might just be a bunch of folks who either don't quite find cruising as enjoyable as it once was or anticipate that it will not be. Just a guess. You never know. Decades are happening in weeks right now. Lets check back here in June 2022 and have 2020 vision.


Kimo
Marooned on Maui

[redneckrob]

Originally Posted by Kimo_Kai

and have 2020 vision

I like what you did there

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Chotu

You know why, right?

All the people that typically live hand to mouth took their stimulus checks and put them in savings. They did not spend the money as was expected. This was a surprise to economists.

Many stimulus check recipients are saving it (instead of spending it all now) to make it last longer, knowing full well that they will probably need it later, if jobs take longer to come back.

Watching the 2 parties fight over what further aid might be coming ("stimulus spending!". "Tax cuts!", "Chocolate!", "Peanut Butter!") can't be very reassuring either.

[Kimo_Kai]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Many stimulus check recipients are saving it (instead of spending it all now) to make it last longer, knowing full well that they will probably need it later, if jobs take longer to come back.

Watching the 2 parties fight over what further aid might be coming ("stimulus spending!". "Tax cuts!", "Chocolate!", "Peanut Butter!") can't be very reassuring either.

Indeed. They should just give us all our choice of a 40ft cat or a 50 foot mono and be done with it!

The news has been crazy. I see you are from Canada. There was the incredible story about Canada annexing the USA.

It was all Maple Leaf.
Kimo
Marooned on Maui

[Palarran]

One thing is for sure, when this is all over the ultra rich are going to have another "Who can build a bigger boat" war.

[Heath68]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Many stimulus check recipients are saving it (instead of spending it all now) to make it last longer, knowing full well that they will probably need it later, if jobs take longer to come back.

Watching the 2 parties fight over what further aid might be coming ("stimulus spending!". "Tax cuts!", "Chocolate!", "Peanut Butter!") can't be very reassuring either.

I am from the UK so our government aid is different with small businesses getting monies to defer tax, rates and pay staff whilst waiting to return to work.
In the US the unemployment rate shot right up to 15% (compared to 4% in uk) plus a lot of help seems to be loans (not grants). Do you think the US will bounce back quickly from this?

[slug]

Originally Posted by Heath68

I am from the UK so our government aid is different with small businesses getting monies to defer tax, rates and pay staff whilst waiting to return to work.
In the US the unemployment rate shot right up to 15% (compared to 4% in uk) plus a lot of help seems to be loans (not grants). Do you think the US will bounce back quickly from this?

Your question is to broad

Parts of the US service economy will be permanently crushed ..:retail , restaurants , travel , airlines , cruise ships ....

Others sectors .... Manufacturing , automation , technology , agriculture , natural resources ... will power on

How to calculate future unemployment is unclear

Europe in general has a very poor record of growing out of economic shocks

Will Europe grow out of this shock is unknown

I’m a sceptic

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by slug

Parts of the US service economy will be permanently crushed ..:retail , restaurants , travel , airlines , cruise ships ....

Others sectors .... Manufacturing , automation , technology , agriculture , natural resources ... will power on

How to calculate future unemployment is unclear

Europe in general has a very poor record of growing out of economic shocks

Economies are supposed to be dynamic - moving away from activities that aren't profitable, and capitalizing on new opportunities. Change is a constant. Also, our pre-pandemic economies weren't perfect... and we were overdue for a market correction, among other things.

Certainly the pandemic and the required mitigations have been a blow to economic activity, and the blow fell hardest on businesses and activities that involve leisure and groups of people: travel, dining, entertainment, sports. Also retail as a social activity - malls. These will come back but the 'when' depends on our having sufficiently reduced the risk of catching or getting seriously ill from COVID-19. There will definitely be changes to those sectors, and there will be casualties, but I wouldn't call them permanently crushed.

It's not often mentioned in the news, but many small businesses, like my wife's employer (catering company), found new niches and activities that have kept them active through the worst of the lockdown, and in many instances, still profitable.

I'm a bit of a Europhile; I believe that in many ways their societies and infrastructure are more advanced and efficient, so they may be better positioned to get to a new 'normal' sooner, if they can avoid the political traps that create conflict and mistrust.

[Tenedos]

Originally Posted by Chotu

I’m sorry Ontario’s economy was decimated. In the USA, it’s as crazy as you see but we all still have plenty of cash for boats.

SF, Silicon Valley rents plunge amid downturn: 'Never seen anything like it'

Areas mentioned are the wealthiest parts of San Francisco Bay/Silicon Valley. I think we can look at this in two different ways:

• Incomes are affected and prices will go down
• People are saving even more money from their rents to buy boats

[slug]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Economies are supposed to be dynamic - moving away from activities that aren't profitable, and capitalizing on new opportunities. Change is a constant. Also, our pre-pandemic economies weren't perfect... and we were overdue for a market correction, among other things.

Certainly the pandemic and the required mitigations have been a blow to economic activity, and the blow fell hardest on businesses and activities that involve leisure and groups of people: travel, dining, entertainment, sports. Also retail as a social activity - malls. These will come back but the 'when' depends on our having sufficiently reduced the risk of catching or getting seriously ill from COVID-19. There will definitely be changes to those sectors, and there will be casualties, but I wouldn't call them permanently crushed.

It's not often mentioned in the news, but many small businesses, like my wife's employer (catering company), found new niches and activities that have kept them active through the worst of the lockdown, and in many instances, still profitable.

I'm a bit of a Europhile; I believe that in many ways their societies and infrastructure are more advanced and efficient, so they may be better positioned to get to a new 'normal' sooner, if they can avoid the political traps that create conflict and mistrust.

How long will it take for Europe to create Google , Microsoft , Facebook, Qualcomm , Intel , Tesla , PayPal, SpaceEx .......

Then Add in poor demographics ....,


I’m a skeptic

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by slug

How long will it take for Europe to create Google , Microsoft , Facebook, Qualcomm , Intel , Tesla , PayPal, SpaceEx .......

Then Add in poor demographics ....,

I’m a skeptic

Think about the sort of environment and politics extant when all the above companies were founded and grew. Think about all the skilled immigrants who were/are part of the success of those companies. And compare to now.

You can also consider the social structure of western European countries, and, with the embarassing exception of the UK, how their social systems more readily coped with the sudden requirements for aid and support.

Anyway, this is just all wild-assed speculation at this point. We shall see...