Prices coming down?

[OloteleMtn]

Perhaps cannons to repel boarders will make a comeback......lots of people are not satisfied with the status quo and are trying to get out from under the thumb of (whoever), so RV sales including cruising vessels will reflect that up to a point. At the low end of the spectrum, many people bought RVs in poor shape and took to living in them and abandoning them in the streets of Portland and Seattle. Ah utopia!

[daletournier]

Heres something interesting. I had my house sold just before covid, stupid price imho (good for me). Anyway contract fell over due to the covid restrictions in Australia.

I read this today https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-06-22/peter-costello-says-government-debt-could-reach-$1-trillion/12365412

I put the house on the market again one week ago and have 7 people looking this week!! Business as normal, houses and stocks just keep going up!

I'm a big skeptic when it comes to our current financial reality (fantasy) which didn't start with covid,will stuff keep going up? Yep probably, until it dosent.

It's a game of musical chairs, I've grabbed my chair early.

[longjonsilver]

Originally Posted by daletournier

Heres something interesting. I had my house sold just before covid, stupid price imho (good for me).

I put the house on the market again one week ago and have 7 people looking this week!! Business as normal, houses and stocks just keep going up!

I'm a big skeptic when it comes to our current financial reality (fantasy) which didn't start with covid,will stuff keep going up? Yep probably, until it dosent.

Wolfstreet reports of many people in the States selling their homes or considering it due to difficulty servicing the mortgage, but here in Halifax its a sellers market. The guy down the road just sold his house in 3 days, for what seems to me to be a lot of money, (almost what i paid a year ago) for a lot less house. Dunno why, could be the navy and air force bases nearby, could be the oil bust in Alberta and people moving home.

The old saying applies with respect to boats imho - went slowly at first then suddenly.

[tomfl]

Watching the talking heads on FOX news do a fluff piece about how the boat market is booming. Babe was in the cockpit of a $US350,000 motor boat who said a lot of families were buying shares in expensive boats.

[Barra]

^^^

And I just got an email from sunsail telling me theres never been a better time to buy a boat with them and put it in charter in Queensland.

[kmacdonald]

Buying a depreciating asset on speculation is a recipe for financial disaster. But then again, boat ownership never made financial sense even in the best of times.

[Boat Guy]

Originally Posted by Palarran

I doubt you will see a change in the market. The US government alone just pumped $10 TRILLION ....
We are playing the game "musical chairs" where everyone is dancing around in a circle, the music never stops, and no one has noticed that all the chairs have been removed..

Originally Posted by daletournier

You need to look into QE amongst other things, .. So yes they are figuratively speaking printing money....trillions of it. Look into fractional banking to understand how currency is created.
...

It's good to see people understand a bit why there has been such a different personal experience with this downturn...The Fed just magically made it go away with flooding the economy with money....


And look, big surprise....People out spending like fools...Mortgage delinquencies are the highest in almost a decade...I'm sure Congress will keep bailing out...Free money while on unemployment for everyone....

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Boat Guy

It's good to see people understand a bit why there has been such a different personal experience with this downturn...The Fed just magically made it go away with flooding the economy with money....


And look, big surprise....People out spending like fools...Mortgage delinquencies are the highest in almost a decade...I'm sure Congress will keep bailing out...Free money while on unemployment for everyone....

Is there a crack up boom?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/crackup-boom.asp

Theres also Brent Johnsons Milkshake theory that predicts the USD will gain strength at the expense of other currencies prior to collapsing, short term this means importing deflation, boats should get cheaper......unprecedented times means we are all guessing.

I read somewhere the other day (but haven't qualified) that the Venezuelan stock market is at all time highs despite its currency being worthless and its economy in shambles. If you owned gold , bitcoin etc you would be very rich in Venezuela right now.

[Clamdigger]

Originally Posted by kmacdonald

Buying a depreciating asset on speculation is a recipe for financial disaster. But then again, boat ownership never made financial sense even in the best of times.

Unfortunately most boat owners don't want to accept this as FACT. ANY thing one owns that requires continual maintenance is in fact a 'liability', be it a vehicle, boat, airplane, property, or even a horse!

All of these have 'costs' associated with their 'upkeep', hence they are'nt 'assets' until sold. In the meantime they all have 'costs' beyond an owner's control associated with them.

House/Land local, state and federal taxes can be raised if THEY want more out of your life.

Horse has to eat, cost of feed, board, etc is what then provider decides it is the day you pay.

Airplane, hanger, fuel, maintenance fees ditto.

Car/Boat, all aspects of maintenance costs are decided by someone else when it needs 'service'.

Limiting one's risk is Foresight, wishing you had sold the widget before the crash is Hindsight you did not have!

[Palarran]

Originally Posted by Boat Guy

I'm sure Congress will keep bailing out...Free money while on unemployment for everyone....

Maybe, but I wouldn't bet on it right now by playing the stock market bull. This global ****-storm is just getting started.

But as for boat prices, without proof, we all are just guessing but my guess is that the prices are going up on catamarans - not sure on mono's.

[Clamdigger]

Originally Posted by arsenelupiga

you talk like you invested in gold. I have some too. However one should remember that boat prices are not in bubble, compared to say property, there goes large intellectual input and precise work in boat manufacturing, way more than equivalent property. Property is way up due to marketing blessed by governments and central banks. Very few know when this will stop, but it always has in history and will this time as well.

Depends how virus story goes, boat has actually pretty good use in some bad scenarios of this crisis. Say one can easily erase debt by selling property and buy boat and is left with cash. So in some really bad scenarios (say 20 % chance happening) boat prices may not do worse than gold.

The above paragraph clearly shows your lack of understanding economic fundamentals. There will be NO buyers of boats or property from 'middle class taxpayers' after this Fall. Most will lose everything they own in foreclosure due to losing their jobs.

So, no, "one cannot 'easily' erase debt, "by selling property and buying a boat and having cash left". The only buyers of property will be buying it at a great discount from severely distressed sellers. Buying a boat puts one in worse financial shape because the majority of costs are beyond one's control during the whole time of ownership! Cash will be worthless in the near future, which will make a 1977 Catalina 22 'worth' $25,000 which is Weimar inflation NOT value!

You may own 'some' gold, but not near as much as you'll need to retire based on your financial comments. Lots of people 'own' a few gold coins, but not enough for the train coming up behind them in the near future. Read more of the 'outsider' economic pages and you'll catch up, I hope.

[Clamdigger]

Originally Posted by Barra

Its an important consideration that while quite a few do understand what our central banks have been up to the "average joe in the street" is blissfully unaware still.

Qantitative easing, unconventional monetary policy, whatever you want to call it is money printing.

If they ever wake up to it then thats when the calamities you mention will really take off as trust is lost in paper money again (or this time around in numbers on a computer screen)

Dont mind the US though your own bank of england has been very busy in this space too - 1.4 trillion pounds in just the last few months. Most people simply cannot imagine what a trillion is. The mental picture I like is that 1 trillion dollar bills stacked up would reach 1/4 of the way to the moon.

Since this crisis global central banks have created enough paper money to go to the moon and 2/3 of the way back again. In just a few months.

If anyone doesnt think that has created a tremendous amount of potential inflation (including in boats) then they simply havnt stopped and thought it through enough.

ie boats may go up in $ value once things settle down even in a recession. But really what is happening is the $s used to pay for it are crashing in value.

By the way to boat owners that aint so pretty either- got 100k for the marina bill or even more extreme a small army to keep the revolution from seizing it?

Interesting times ahead. Ignorance is probably bliss

Barra, you get it, obviously astute financially, so you (and I) will be able to 'step off the track' as the train comes whizzing past off the rails this coming Fall 2020!

Most folks 'think' they have a handle on their personal economics...same ones who had to leave their homes to go shop for 'a few things' and expose themselves to a very virulent virus.

Standing off on a boat could/would be the prudent thing to do this Fall, except where to go? Most harbors can be closed by the local tyrannical govts and keep out 'outsiders'/ cruisers. So it's going to be a wild ride trying to get into Southern waters before they close them down this Fall.

At least a few other folks here like Wolfgal understand the bigger picture. It's not a time to be venturing away from home waters to far off strange new lands that's for certain.

[Clamdigger]

Oh, and I am seeing plenty of 'price reduced' boats on CL in New England states. Lots of free boats, some on trailers too! In this economy a wood boat is a true liability. Not many old timers left who recall those days and have the knowledge to maintain one, let alone buy one.

Classic plastic boats older than 1990 will also fire sale as insurance will be costly on older boats in the coming months/years.

So, yeah, I'm seeing prices on sub $100k boats down as I peruse the listings NOT handled by ex realtors, uh, I mean boat brokers,LOL!

[arsenelupiga]

Originally Posted by Clamdigger

The above paragraph clearly shows your lack of understanding economic fundamentals. There will be NO buyers of boats or property from 'middle class taxpayers' after this Fall. Most will lose everything they own in foreclosure due to losing their jobs.

So, no, "one cannot 'easily' erase debt, "by selling property and buying a boat and having cash left". The only buyers of property will be buying it at a great discount from severely distressed sellers. Buying a boat puts one in worse financial shape because the majority of costs are beyond one's control during the whole time of ownership! Cash will be worthless in the near future, which will make a 1977 Catalina 22 'worth' $25,000 which is Weimar inflation NOT value!

You may own 'some' gold, but not near as much as you'll need to retire based on your financial comments. Lots of people 'own' a few gold coins, but not enough for the train coming up behind them in the near future. Read more of the 'outsider' economic pages and you'll catch up, I hope.

you seem to know everything. hope you get to buy that cat at price you can afford one day.

i am FIRE retired and do my own finances. My returns are around 5% p/a over australian stock index, what are yours ?

I have system that rigorously follow and have no doubt i will do better than any fund manager could do for me, sailing full time in decades to come.

nope, i do not accept new money.

[Clamdigger]

I hope for your sake your pension does'nt go the way the USA pensions seem to be headed. There is a major problem with pensions being funded here.

I retired at 57 yrs old, and if my health does'nt fail due to things beyond my control, I am debt free and have enough capital to see me through any economic calamity coming. Glad you're financially secure too. If I was down under I'd buy you a pint.