What could possibly go wrong?

[requiem]

The tweet from the MAS is "Mission update: we’ve developed a small mechanical problem and are going back to base to investigate further. We hope to get turned around and on our way as soon as possible."

Originally Posted by CaptTom

I think Jedi has a good point. I've seen how people drive cars and boats, and I for one look forward to seeing them away from the steering wheel and helm.

....

I can't imagine a 15-year-old not being anxious to learn to drive. But many these days aren't. Likewise, many kids and young adults don't seem interested in learning a trade.

Also happy to see some humans no longer behind the wheel. Of those teenagers in decades past, how many of them were also gearheads? I'm guessing not as much as those wanting to drive, and that it wasn't the /driving/ they were interested in but the freedom and access it provided. They got behind the wheel perhaps less because they wanted to, but more because deep down they felt it necessary.

Automation taking over doesn't remove that distinction, and simply creates new opportunities. It does mean that the labor force will need to adapt, just as they have for centuries prior. Probably particularly painful for those who want to hang on to "the way things were".

An apropos quote I've seen recently was about how tradition is "tending the fire, not worshiping the ashes". I think there will still be space for those interested in the traditional arts, but it will be a smaller space, and one in which the skill required will be higher: more artisanal than industrial.

[CaptTom]

Originally Posted by requiem

I think there will still be space for those interested in the traditional arts, but it will be a smaller space, and one in which the skill required will be higher: more artisanal than industrial.

Interesting. It makes sense that future jobs will be less "hands-on."

But ask anyone trying to hire workers in any trade, and I suspect you'll find that we're nowhere near that point yet.

To use examples we're all familiar with, have you tried to get work done by a marine mechanic or canvas shop lately? There are lots of well-paying jobs available to anyone with an interest.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by CaptTom

Interesting. It makes sense that future jobs will be less "hands-on."

But ask anyone trying to hire workers in any trade, and I suspect you'll find that we're nowhere near that point yet.

To use examples we're all familiar with, have you tried to get work done by a marine mechanic or canvas shop lately? There are lots of well-paying jobs available to anyone with an interest.

Those would likely fall under the "artisanal" category he mentioned. Large cruising boats are not mass produced. It's rare to get 40-50 units per year when you get above 35ft long.

So expecting an automated system to do prefabricated canvas enclosures struggles to justify the cost of automation. Likewise the drivetrains in cruising boats are a hodge podge of engine types and installation methods that doesn't lend itself to automation.

Compare that to the tonneau cover I bought for my Ford pickup. They make those by the hundreds of thousands, so you go onto amazon, tell them the bed size and a couple days later a pre-fitted canvas bed cover shows up. Took about 5 min to put it on and fits perfectly. I wouldn't be surprised to find much of it took very little human intervention to produce.

But the bar to justify automation is coming down and it's coming down fast. As much as people are complaining about AI driving a boat, I'm betting 80-90% of posters on this thread already have such a system...just not at a lower level of AI. It's called an autopilot and most of these same people will gush about how they would never cruise without one.

[BenBowSirocco]

I follow the commercial shipping sector a fair bit (Gcaptian, Loadstar) and one thing I will say is that it might be nice to see less human error wrecks happening. There have been a number in the last couple years that are pretty sad- like the captain who ran his ship up on a reef in Mauritius, damaging or destroying most of the local reef/ecosystem, all in hopes that his crew could have cell phone service...



Dont get me wrong here, I am very scared of the idea that big ships at sea wont have people on board.



But I also notice the reality that the accident reports I read show a series of human errors are the cause of the many wrecks that happen. Pretty sure every one I have ever seen says "Fatigue played a role" and you would never hear that from a computer system.



Some time ago, when Norway was talking about a small feeder line being a test pilot for a autonomous navigation of ships the idea was that:
The pilot took the ship from the dock to the sea and flipped on the auto-pilot.

The ship sailed the open sea until near its destination.

The pilot boarded the ship and brought it into dock.



Valhalla makes a great point. I wouldn't want to sail without a windvane. I consider it a critical piece of safety gear, because as I said above, every accident report I have ever read inevitably says: fatigue played a role.

[Motorsailer4me]

We love sailing. A self sailing boat that can go out and sail by itself leaving us home is like "the self eating cheeseburger"

[requiem]

There are two use cases for self-driving cars that appeal to me: Allowing me to catch up on sleep over long drives, and dropping me off in places without parking.

I think both of these apply to sailing. Obviously you might still need the dinghy for more remote places, but imagine being able to pull up to a town quay, hop off, and then let the boat go off and anchor (or just turn circles) until your return. It would also address the traditional tension between single-handing and keeping a proper watch.

[ArmyDaveNY]

An interesting aspect of this is that laws are almost always behind the curve with regards to new technologies. It will be interesting to see how AI controlled boats, cars, etc. are handled under the law as incidents happen. I am not saying automated vessels and vehicles are good or bad, just that legally there will be some shaking out and it will be interesting to see how it progresses.

Ultimately I don't think it will matter who, or what, is in control. The concept of deepest pockets will always apply, as will the concept of interpretation of the laws. Legislatures the world over will eventually come to grips with this, as will the COLREGS and insurance companies.

[Scotty Kiwi]

Originally Posted by Motorsailer4me

We love sailing. A self sailing boat that can go out and sail by itself leaving us home is like "the self eating cheeseburger"

The utimate cures, one for seasickness, the other for obesity.

[AndyEss]

Originally Posted by LittleWing77

Thanks for that reminder, SaltyDawg. I do hope so.

I guess what I'm seeing in the overall trend across all societies is that humans are being removed. Consequently, everyone is feeling very alienated and isolated.

What is one of the impacts? We see it here every week: yet another newbie who is going to buy a boat and sail away - or buy a boat to connect with our sailing community.

"Corporatization" is one of the contributing factors. Roger Waters of Pink Floyd had this response just yesterday:

Roger Waters' response to the World's "Powerful Idiots"
https://tribune.com.pk/story/2305729...s-in-the-world

This is probably my most political post in all my years on this Forum, so I really will stop now, but I will never be in favour of the systematic removal of humans from our own society in the purported name of technological advancement.

Fair winds to my fellow sailors,
Warmly,
LittleWing77

You miss one important aspect of historical humanity prior to the development of commercial corporatism.
Nearly the sole endeavor of large groups of organized human beings for the last 5 or 6 millennia has been waging war.
Selling Coca-Cola or ad space on Google surely has to be a far better application of human intellectual and physical capacity than exterminating competing males and enslaving their women.

[hpeer]

More humans with less to do, just what we need.

I do see some positive aspects or AI.

But there are also downsides. For one humans are generally programmed to actively participate in the health and welfare of their tribe. When they have difficulty doing that then they turn to other “occupations” to meet the need and get into all sorts of mischief as a result.

We have much to oearn about how to manage herds or this size.

[LittleWing77]

Originally Posted by AndyEss

Selling Coca-Cola or ad space on Google surely has to be a far better application of human intellectual and physical capacity than exterminating competing males and enslaving their women.

This response depresses me beyond belief.

Your contention is that humans' intellectual and physical capacities ought to be engaged in selling or advertising things? And that is better than war?

My point was far more broad.
LittleWing77

[bongo]

I have spent an entire career, (marine engineer), at sea, on a very wide range of ships. Steam Turbine, Diesel, Gas Turbine, fully automated and non-automated, stick ships, and bunkers, to Containerships and Super Tankers…. One thing I can say, for certain, is that ships need maintenance, and that things break. Casualties are often when you least expect them, and commonly occur due to a very unlikely chain of events. It takes years of experience and training to deal with many situations.
In addition, I have seen automation fail much more often than I have seen human error. Ideally the automation and the human beings can have a symbiotic relationship where it isn’t just one or the other, but humans being assisted by automation, and automation being assisted by humans.
The marine environment is much more harsh and unpredictable than space, for example. Corrosion, erosion, dissimilar metals, moisture, flooding, impediments to heat transfer, motion, lubrication, leaking,,,, I’ve seen a school of mackerel bring a tanker to it’s knees. I’ve seen thru-hulls break on the skin of the vessel, so no valves to close, what is an autonomous vessel going to do in this case.
Oh, and I agree with some of you above, I sail because I LOVE TO SAIL. It is not just a means of transportation, to switch on the autopilot and tune-out until you arrive at your destination.. If you are not paying attention, I hope you are not sailing in my neighborhood.
Enough of a rant. I see these autonomous vessels as pure folly.

[hpeer]

I worked in rail transit. For decades they have been attempting to created driverless trains. It can be dine in very limited and contained circumstances. For example people movers at airports or coal trains.

Once you het to larger “networks” then things fall apart. Washington Metro, for example, was supposed to he driverless but they have never been able to make it work reliably. And they have a long history of accidents and problems. They have been criticized heavily by the NTSB.

Kahnaman (Nobel prize winner for contribution in economics via psychology) in “Thinking Fast and Slow” notes the limitations of humans. Basically even if we know what is right we screw it up because of our emotions and our attention span. He points out that the solution to use experts to derive procedures (AI) to operate by, eliminating the intense and wearying attention to detail. So AI has a role, once it has been sufficiently developed.

I can see AI performing many functions on a ship. But not ALL functions. Just one example is how ships take on pilots for local knowledge. How does that work on an AI vessel? How does AI simply “not hit anything” when faces with the choice between hitting one of two things; another boat or a bridge? Suppose the other boat is a light barge? Suppose it is a evening dinner party boat with 150 guests?

How does an AI ship respond to an AMVER and haul a distressed sailor aboard?

Yeah, let AI run the ship and keep watch. But keep a crew for those times when needed.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Yeah, let AI run the ship and keep watch. But keep a crew for those times when needed.

This!

Originally Posted by bongo

Ideally the automation and the human beings can have a symbiotic relationship where it isn’t just one or the other, but humans being assisted by automation, and automation being assisted by humans.

And this!

[canman]

This Has to be one of the more intellectually stimulating, interesting, civil conversations about the future that I have enjoyed immensely.
My addition to the conversation is that there is always well informed and not so well informed critical review of new ideas.
For example my freedom 39 has carbon freestanding masts that are 37 years old and appear likely to go another 37. And that’s after years of criticism that they would snap and break. Imagine having a traditionally wired rig lasting more than 40 years. So we will see failures from automation but ultimately they will increasingly take over routine duties.