What could possibly go wrong?

[StuM]

Originally Posted by RiverRat37

Besides, we need to concentrate on Climate Change first or the rest won't matter.

Uh-oh!

Please people, don't bite. We don't need another thread ruined.

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by RiverRat37

I'd be happy to take on that challenge. I believe AI is in it's bare infancy and can do almost nothing useful yet. Being able to think like a human? Not even on the far horizon. As to crossing a tipping point into high speed change ... I think we're already there but it has little to do with AI. Someone recently pointed out that there is sooooo much that AI can't do that it's almost senseless to refer to it as "intelligence". Like self-driving cars we're a long, long way from either one providing much of a meaningful assist to our needs (driving around 8% of Phoenix in carefully scoped out areas -- never, ever in a rainstorm or dust storm -- is hardly autonomous as we think of it. The cognitive abilities of a human? Not even in your dreams. Besides, we need to concentrate on Climate Change first or the rest won't matter.



(former IT guy for 40 years -- who worked on the experimental perceptron at Cornell in the 1960's [Cognitive Systems Research Program under Dr. Frank Rosenblatt], and well aware of the failures new tech can suffer/cause, along with it's benefits. See: Ransomeware!)

Well, we have different perspectives. I think the old measure of "thinking like a human" misses the point of many applications of AI. Time will tell...

[LittleWing77]

Originally Posted by LittleWing77

Your contention is that humans' intellectual and physical capacities ought to be engaged in selling or advertising things? And that is better than war?

My point was far more broad.

Originally Posted by bongo

One thing I can say for certain, is that ships need maintenance, and that things break. Casualties are often when you least expect them, and commonly occur due to a very unlikely chain of events. It takes years of experience and training to deal with many situations.

The marine environment is much more harsh and unpredictable than space, for example. Corrosion, erosion, dissimilar metals, moisture, flooding, impediments to heat transfer, motion, lubrication, leaking...

I’ve seen a school of mackerel bring a tanker to its knees. I’ve seen thru-hulls break on the skin of the vessel (so no valves to close). What [would] an autonomous vessel do in such case?

Oh, and I agree with some of you above, I sail because I LOVE TO SAIL. It is not just a means of transportation, to switch on the autopilot and tune-out until you arrive at your destination... [misses the whole point].

Originally Posted by belizesailor

So, war is better than selling things?

Originally Posted by LittleWing77

Oh, for pity's sake, Belize.

That was NOT what I was saying.

Don't be so obtuse.
LittleWing77

Originally Posted by belizesailor

I'm not trying to be be obtuse. It seemed to be the literal wording to me. What did you mean?

Okay, Belize. I'll have a go at explaining what I meant with the assistance of snips from Bongo's excellent post.

I think we, as a society are at a tipping point of a sort. The trend for years now, has been to subtly and insidiously insert an automation or a computer process in place of a human - basically as a cost-savings.

Take a moment to think of the last time you put in a call to any customer service department, trying to reach a live human to help you with something that didn't fall into one of their neat automated "categories" for service enquiries....

Replacing humans has two effects: firstly, it short-changes us all. It's making life more difficult in many, many subtle and daily ways. We are burdened with taking on so many and varied service roles ourselves, which means, at the very basic impact level, we have less and less time.

Secondly, when a role normally fulfilled by a human is designated to a machine or an AI process, the corollary to that assignation is that what the human had been doing is equally performed by the AI/machine or is a "good enough" performance of that task/function. This is a misapprehension, as you can see from examples provided in this thread. Especially in the case of Bongo's pertinent scenarios.

Plus, the more AI does for us, the less we can do. Look at this thread from just this morning:

Assistance Needed with Today's Electronics
https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...cs-252319.html

How many of the electonic-navigation sailors can actually navigate anymore? Salt water is an inherently hostile environment to electronics. In the case where a vessel's electronics fail, would they/us be able to return the boat safely to port?

So when I was saying my point was far more broad, what I mean is that the impacts on our society we have not yet fully got the measure of, but their subtleties can be found, if we're paying attention.

Systematically removing humans means that we're effectively saying that humans and our contributions/ abilites/ years of training have little value because they can easily be replaced. (Again, misapprehension.)

Also, by removing humans, we're effectively shooting ourselves in the foot. Is the sort of society we want one where everything is replaced by machines/AI? Where would WE fit into such a society? A society that negates and devalues humans makes humans irrelevant.

I submit that, as sailors, the reason we gravitate to this life at all is not only our love of catching the wind, but also after years of sitting before computer screens, we're craving something tangible and real.

Here's an excellent book on the discussion and value of work by Matthew Crawford. It came out in hardcover years ago, then shot to the top of the NYTimes bestsellers, which bumped it into paperback and it's still in print. Matt is a PhD who tossed his scientific writing job to opt for fixing classic motorcycles:

Shop Class as Soulcraft
https://www.amazon.com/Shop-Class-So...opcraft&sr=8-1

Hope this clarifies and sorry for the loooong post!
Fair winds,
LittleWing77

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by LittleWing77

Okay, Belize. I'll have a go at explaining what I meant with the assistance of snips from Bongo's excellent post.

I think we, as a society are at a tipping point of a sort. The trend for years now, has been to subtly and insidiously insert an automation or a computer process in place of a human - basically as a cost-savings.

Take a moment to think of the last time you put in a call to any customer service department, trying to reach a live human to help you with something that didn't fall into one of their neat automated "categories" for service enquiries....

Replacing humans has two effects: firstly, it short-changes us all. It's making life more difficult in many, many subtle and daily ways. We are burdened with taking on so many and varied service roles ourselves, which means, at the very basic impact level, we have less and less time.

Secondly, when a role normally fulfilled by a human is designated to a machine or an AI process, the corollary to that assignation is that what the human had been doing is equally performed by the AI/machine or is a "good enough" performance of that task/function. This is a misapprehension, as you can see from examples provided in this thread. Especially in the case of Bongo's pertinent scenarios.

Plus, the more AI does for us, the less we can do. Look at this thread from just this morning:

Assistance Needed with Today's Electronics
https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...cs-252319.html

How many of the electonic-navigation sailors can actually navigate anymore? Salt water is an inherently hostile environment to electronics. In the case where a vessel's electronics fail, would they/us be able to return the boat safely to port?

So when I was saying my point was far more broad, what I mean is that the impacts on our society we have not yet fully got the measure of, but their subtleties can be found, if we're paying attention.

Systematically removing humans means that we're effectively saying that humans and our contributions/ abilites/ years of training have little value because they can easily be replaced. (Again, misapprehension.)

Also, by removing humans, we're effectively shooting ourselves in the foot. Is the sort of society we want one where everything is replaced by machines/AI? Where would WE fit into such a society? A society that negates and devalues humans makes humans irrelevant.

I submit that, as sailors, the reason we gravitate to this life at all is not only our love of catching the wind, but also after years of sitting before computer screens, we're craving something tangible and real.

Here's an excellent book on the discussion and value of work by Matthew Crawford. It came out in hardcover years ago, then shot to the top of the NYTimes bestsellers, which bumped it into paperback and it's still in print. Matt is a PhD who tossed his scientific writing job to opt for fixing classic motorcycles:

Shop Class as Soulcraft
https://www.amazon.com/Shop-Class-So...opcraft&sr=8-1

Hope this clarifies and sorry for the loooong post!
Fair winds,
LittleWing77 [emoji3]

I get your point (but I still dont get the "war" reference).

Yes, automation/AI has been augmenting/replacing humans for decades now and I think is well beyond "critical mass". Not only will it continue to do so, but will and is accellerating. I say "automation/AI" because I dont believe it is functionally relevant how we categorize it technically. Some of this technology is not "AI" per se.

Take the example you gave of "IVR/AVR" (Interactive/Automated Voice Response Systems). At least thats what we called them way back when I used to build them. Most of the systems I built (as tech lead) did not replace humans, but rather automated routine calls so the over loaded humans could deal with the non-routine stuff. Then along came a related game changing technology from AT&T...the first effective commercial continuos voice recognition. AT&T phone operator unions immediately cried foul and filed law suits. I knew about this tech early under non-disclosure so knew the **** storm that followed was coming.

What was the result of their protests...in the end it was just noise...the tech marched forward and today we have some astonishingly good natural language technology (esp to those of us who worked w the old tech). And yep, it has displaced a bunch of low level jobs. The traditional phone operator has become largely irrelevant...when is the last time anyone here talked to an operator? There were also several other technologies that converged to this end result.

Like the Telephone Operators Union, many have tried to stop change (I deliberately chose "change", not "progress"...that has yet to be determined). There has been resistance to every form of change you can think of. I cant think of any successful efforts (except for some very isolated pockets, but not large scale).

There were plenty who protested trains, airplanes, etc, but WOW...could you imagine life without them now! (Actually I can...Im writing this from the Guatemalan jungle!). All their protests were in vain. The UniBomber tried to derail tech change...we know how that worked out.

While many fret and protest about the expanding and accelerating pace of tech change their protests have little practical effect. I have no reason to think their protests will be any more effective than those of the past.

Change is inevetiably coming. The more practical question is how to adapt to it.



PS: On a related note, I sold my sextant yesterday! Oh the horror! [emoji6]

[deblen]

Originally Posted by fivecapes

“We’re testing the system, but it is designed to be COLREG compliant and should spot things as small as a man in a rowboat and be able to avoid it,” said Brett Phaneuf, co-director of the Mayflower Autonomous Ship project.

“There will always be a low-bandwidth satellite connection so that we may assist the vessel should it ask for help. Its prime directive is ‘don’t hit anything’,” added Phaneuf.

What about Rule 5-Lookout? by MK I eyeball. / Len

[StuM]

Originally Posted by CaptTom

According to their tracking page, it looks like something went wrong.

https://www.theregister.com/2021/06/19/in_brief_ai/

The Mayflower Autonomous Ship (MAS), which set sail this week from the UK to the US, failed just three days into its journey. It appears a mechanical fault occurred, something the Mayflower's AI can't fix itself.

If you're a Twaitterer: https://twitter.com/AI_Mayflower ,
it seems it is not going to make it back under its own steam

"Mission update: I am safe and I still have power. Awaiting recovery - support team on way. Thanks for all your messages of support!"

[CaptTom]

There ya go... a future-proof job: AI Repairman.

[Calif.Ted]

"Mission update: I am safe and I still have power. Awaiting recovery - support team on way. Thanks for all your messages of support!"

Ok, this is the first time I've ever looked at a "tweet", is AI Captain a person or is "he" the boat ?
Open pod bay doors HAL.

[hzcruiser]

The latter.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Calif.Ted

Ok, this is the first time I've ever looked at a "tweet", is AI Captain a person or is "he" the boat ?
Open pod bay doors HAL.

A shore based employee pretending to be the boat's AI for publicity purposes.

[Sheriffdep]

Originally Posted by LittleWing77

I guess what I'm seeing in the overall trend across all societies is that humans are being removed.

Consequently, everyone is feeling very alienated and isolated.

What is one of the impacts? We see it here every week: yet another newbie who is going to buy a boat and sail away - or buy a boat to connect with our sailing community.

Humans are being removed from businesses. (all depends on industry and technology) It will happen much more in the next 10 years and within 20 years most likely the majority of low skilled jobs will disappear. Think sci fi movies.

Think of the future - people work in the same building they live in, they have no real needs for consumer products, most is provided for by who or where they work. They dont own cars and walk to where they need too. Its shown in movies all the time.

HOW LONG TILL THEN??????? Well its alot closer then people realize. I think within 10 years the USA is in a crisis due to job losses for unskilled labor. No fast food places or even restaurants will have employees. They will be AI and robots. Same for retail stores. Malls will slowly disappear, they are too expensive to run compared to online delivery. This will be a problem and a massive one to boot. However, i expect businesses to make as much profit as possible, that is why they exist.

So where do we as a society go from here? I dont know the answer. I expect there will HAVE to be some sort of basic income for people. I expect some type of futuristic entity controlling alot of aspects of life.

Due to technology, which will never stop, life will either go totally sci fi within a 100 years, or go back to totally simple for most people.

[LittleWing77]

Originally Posted by Sheriffdep

Humans are being removed from businesses. (all depends on industry and technology) It will happen much more in the next 10 years and within 20 years most likely the majority of low-skilled jobs will disappear.

Think of the future - people work in the same building they live in, they have no real needs for consumer products, most [would be] provided for by who or where they work. They don't own cars and walk to where they need to. It's shown in movies all the time.

HOW LONG 'TIL THEN???????

Well, it's a lot closer than people realize. I think within 10 years the USA [will be] in a crisis due to job losses for unskilled labor. No fast food places or even restaurants will have employees. There will be AI and robots.

Same for retail stores. Malls will slowly disappear - they are too expensive to run compared to online delivery. This will be a problem and a massive one to boot. However, I expect businesses to make as much profit as possible, that is why they exist.

So where do we as a society go from here? I don't know the answer. I expect there will HAVE to be some sort of basic income for people. I expect some type of futuristic entity controlling a lot of aspects of life.

Due to technology, which will never stop, life will either go totally sci fi within a 100 years, or go back to totally simple for most people.

Yes, I see yours' and Belize's perspectives clearly, Sherriff. Guess what I'm also saying is that if we're paying attention, we have the power to choose.

A couple of years ago, there was an incredible documentary, California Typewriter https://californiatypewritermovie.com/ which examines a defunct piece of "technology": the typewriter. While the documentary turns on an examination of the typewriter, it is actually a profound commentary on the state of our society.

About an hour in, Jeremy Mayer, a sculptor who creates pieces out of discarded typewriter parts, says something to the effect of... "we will be seeing a schism in our society in the future... the people with the money and the power will pursue enhanced technology... others will turn away from this and seek to live in a more authentic way, connecting with other people and in community".

I think Jeremy is right. We're seeing the edge of this right here on Cruisers Forum. Not the Members who have lots of money, fancy boats with every enhancement imaginable, but those members who are brass-tacks sort of people. Simple boats, little technology onboard other than compass, depth-sounder anchor and solar panels.

Anyway, that's what I'm seeing. People are feeling alienated and dismissed by the effects of increased technology and corporate devaluation and are turning to sailing to become more free and to connect with other like-minded souls.

This year's Oscar-winner, Nomadland https://m.imdb.com/title/tt9770150/, also addressed an aspect of this, only its perspective was around land-dwellers.

Fair winds,
LittleWing77

[belizesailor]

Originally Posted by Sheriffdep

Humans are being removed from businesses. (all depends on industry and technology) It will happen much more in the next 10 years and within 20 years most likely the majority of low skilled jobs will disappear. Think sci fi movies.



Think of the future - people work in the same building they live in, they have no real needs for consumer products, most is provided for by who or where they work. They dont own cars and walk to where they need too. Its shown in movies all the time.



HOW LONG TILL THEN??????? Well its alot closer then people realize. I think within 10 years the USA is in a crisis due to job losses for unskilled labor. No fast food places or even restaurants will have employees. They will be AI and robots. Same for retail stores. Malls will slowly disappear, they are too expensive to run compared to online delivery. This will be a problem and a massive one to boot. However, i expect businesses to make as much profit as possible, that is why they exist.



So where do we as a society go from here? I dont know the answer. I expect there will HAVE to be some sort of basic income for people. I expect some type of futuristic entity controlling alot of aspects of life.



Due to technology, which will never stop, life will either go totally sci fi within a 100 years, or go back to totally simple for most people.

The only thing you know for sure about predictions of the future is that they will be wrong, at least in a matter of degree.

Society is complex and its adaptations to technology are often not what was expected. Example: most of the mainstream totally missed the future explosion of social media until it was already effectively here.

However, in general terms, science fiction technology does have a tendency to become fact. Im waiting to see the impact of transporter tech, but that wont likely happen in my life time.

Will the human race be threatened by well meaning robots as in Asminov's "I Robot"...only time will tell...stay tuned!

[Sheriffdep]

Originally Posted by LittleWing77

Anyway, that's what I'm seeing. People are feeling alienated and dismissed by the effects of increased technology and corporate devaluation and are turning to sailing to become more free and to connect with other like-minded souls.

Fair winds,
LittleWing77

Could you explain what you mean by saying "people are feeling alienated and dismissed by technology and corporate devaluation?"

This is a huge obstacle society will have to tackle.

[LittleWing77]

Originally Posted by Sheriffdep

Could you explain what you mean by saying "people are feeling alienated and dismissed by technology and corporate devaluation... [of humans and their skills/training]"

If that doesn't clarify, please read the entirety all of my posts on this thread. I've gone to great lengths to explain.

LW77