How to Invest ?

[70AMX]

I guess the point I am trying to make is that as cruisers (at least in the US) we are permitted to leave the country with 10K total in monetary units (cash,Gold,Silver ect)without declaring it......we then are free to convert/spend it in any country we cruise to... we then would have to report our capital gains (if any) to our taxing authorities the next time we do our taxes.

[Maren]

Originally Posted by Saucy Sailoress

So, Kenny Chaos says real estate is out.

First question: Do you think what Kenny Chaos said is valid?

I didn't want to post this to the thread because I'm basically going to put in four links to stuff I've written before. But I figure these previous threads have also been really good so you may wish to read through all of them too to get others input.

1. general thoughts. The link to chart 4.1 is dead. Basically it showed how US mutual funds, mutual funds from other countries, regardless of their cap size (large cap, mid cap, small cap) are all correlated. This make sense when you think how we're all more connected now than ever.

2. Preserving purchasing power; risk This was back when TaoJones was cool and posted stuff

3. Forex; can 90% of traders be in the top 25%? Skepticism towards investment courses.

4. Multiple asset classes AND multiple strategies.

My thoughts, if you haven't already discerned them, are to invest in multiple asset classes and when/if you're able using multiple strategies. I don't think most (or any) others here are advising that, even as a goal.

I'm rather certain there is a reason for that.

Instead, some want to point out how well their choice has done over the last few years, but I don't think past performance will be indicative of future performance. Come to think of it, that's what most pieces of financial sales literature tends to say -- there may be a reason for that. Others want to say how you should invest in an index mutual fund. I think that's generally on the right track but misses how ETFs have a lower cost than an index fund.

Anyway, best of luck.

[70AMX]

Originally Posted by cat man do

Gee, I dont know


Compare to this and see which looks more astonishing


USD may be roooted but I am in Australia, are the presses running here?
Australia is not what I research...never said that I did..


So you admit that gold is just a hedge

Yes...it is a hedge against instability in currencies and at the present time it has been the best performing asset class for 10 years now.


Good luck with that at your nearest shop buying food

If I need cash I can go many places to convert Gold into currency...just like if you were in the US with aussie dollars, you wont be buying food with them without converting.

Add: and your embolding your entire post did not make your argument any the more convincing, quite the opposite in fact

Actually that happened when I made your comments red and bold...it made the rest of the rebuttal red and bold...I removed the red..but forgot to remove the BOLD... so sorry.......

I would actually be expecting dividends, you know, that thing called yield.....................something gold does not have

No gold doesn't pay dividends, you need to sell some to take any gains.


is that right?
Currently in some countries they are putting a ban on undocumented gold transactions

My experience in the Us,Costa Rica and Panama was just cash for gold, no paperwork of any kind.




[/COLOR]

Oh I have thought about it

Unencumbered rental property pays me a healthy amount of money every week that I can spend on whatever I like and the capital is preserved

Gold on the other hand gives me nothing every week and the only way I can get something is to eat into it selling it down until eventually there is nothing left but the memory of what once was.

If my 10k in Gold goes to 20k....I am free to convert 10K to currency and I still have my original 10k investment.

Add: and the bolding of your entire post failed to convince me

I explained that above...and your jumping on it as a reason to discount my post is rather lame.

[avb3]

Originally Posted by 70AMX

At what amount is reporting required in Canada?

The "rules" state transactions over $10,000 (much like in the U.S. of A.).

Reality is no dealer in gold or gold coins will buy any "in case" unless they comply with FINTRAC regulations, even if theoretically they don't have too.

Most gold bullion requires a purchase certificate normally issued through the Bank of Nova Scotia (who for some reason has dealt in gold and is the depositor of record for eons). You have a difficult time selling gold without that certificate of purchase.

[cat man do]

Originally Posted by 70AMX

Compare to this and see which looks more astonishing

You can cherry pick dates and compare to other graphs all you like but the fact still remains that the price of gold is on an unsustainable bubble upwards and all bubbles must pop, so I am told.

To recommend someone buy in now, when prices have risen to the highest levels ever, for a product that has no yield seems a bit silly to me.

Yes...it is a hedge against instability in currencies

On one hand you say buy gold for preservation of capital
On the other you say you have to sell it off to eat
So much for preservation of capital

and at the present time it has been the best performing asset class for 10 years now.

Like I said, cherry picked point in time
How about the 25 years before that? Gold went backwards

If my 10k in Gold goes to 20k....I am free to convert 10K to currency and I still have my original 10k investment.

If if and if
Sounds like gambling to me
What if it doesnt, what then?

I explained that above...and your jumping on it as a reason to discount my post is rather lame.

Why is it lame?
I and others have provided an example of an investment the original poster could have, that actually provides income, which, is what I believe the OP to be after.

You have provided an example of something akin to tulips
Pretty to look at but doesn't have a yield or pay anything until sold to the "Greater Fool"
And we know what happened when they ran out of them
Tulip mania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[70AMX]

Originally Posted by cat man do

You can cherry pick dates and compare to other graphs all you like but the fact still remains that the price of gold is on an unsustainable bubble upwards and all bubbles must pop, so I am told.

I hope you realize that the chart I just put up only goes to 2008....the 2010/11 chart I haven't found yet, but the 2011 chart would be 50% higher.

You didn't read Jim Rogers interview did you?

Did he say that he expected Gold to be MUCH higher and do you acknowledge that his credentials are top notch.

To recommend someone buy in now, when prices have risen to the highest levels ever, for a product that has no yield seems a bit silly to me.

Unless you think that there is NO possibility that there will be a currency crisis coming down the line, then a percentage of investments in PM's would historically be sound advice (ask any investment adviser over 60) you can decide for yourself what percentage to keep for safety.


On one hand you say buy gold for preservation of capital
On the other you say you have to sell it off to eat
So much for preservation of capital

If my stocks don't go up and I need to eat, I will need to sell some to do so, so much for preservation of capital.
How is that any different?


Like I said, cherry picked point in time
How about the 25 years before that? Gold went backwards

How many times do I have to answer this question?
In time of stability....Gold does nothing...never said that it did...you taylor your investments to the situation at hand....and that situation today is more dangerous than it has ever been in your lifetime... You may be somewhat insulated in Australia...but a currency crisis in any major currency will effect you as well.



If if and if
Sounds like gambling to me
What if it doesnt, what then?

Anytime you invest you can have gains or losses....I guess investing is a gamble....didn't you know this already?

I don't have a crystal ball, but I read the economists that DID see this coming as far back as 2001 and they were all marginalized for their views....finally proved right though and still you wont see many of them on the main street news or the likes of Cnbs or Msnbs or bloomberg (nobody wants to hear bad news I guess)...... those same economists are still speaking today....If you were going to listen to advisers...would you rather listen to the ones who predicted it or the ones who said that nobody could see it coming?



Why is it lame?
I and others have provided an example of an investment the original poster could have, that actually provides income, which, is what I believe the OP to be after.


INCOME is just another word for GAINS.
It is Lame because you used that as a VALID reason to discount my views......

You have provided an example of something akin to tulips
Pretty to look at but doesn't have a yield or pay anything until sold to the "Greater Fool"
And we know what happened when they ran out of them
Tulip mania - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I tell you what, since there is no way I am going to convince you of anything....why not come back to this thread 6 months from now and we will see how gold is doing.....I will bring dinner and if I was correct and Gold continues to rise....I will feed you....and if Gold goes down AND stays down....you can feed me my own dinner....OK?




BTW...corrections are part of all markets and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see a correction in Gold to even $1000 (most likely 1350 or so) They would be buying opportunities to take advantage of......But feel free on September 3 2011 to come and feed me my dinner.....I might not be Hungry....but I will eat it anyway.....Will you?

[cat man do]

Originally Posted by 70AMX

INCOME is just another word for GAINS.

Clueless

Income is what I get weekly for the rent for my properties

Capital Gains is what I would get if I sold the property, which has nothing whatsoever to do with the weekly income generated.

They are two separate things.
One I live on now (rent/income)
The other (capital gains) is the bonus I get if and when I choose to sell.
I don't have to discount the last 10 years worth of rent from the CG made

[avb3]

Originally Posted by cat man do

Clueless

Income is what I get weekly for the rent for my properties

Capital Gains is what I would get if I sold the property, which has nothing whatsoever to do with the weekly income generated.

They are two separate things.
One I live on now (rent/income)
The other (capital gains) is the bonus I get if and when I choose to sell.
I don't have to discount the last 10 years worth of rent from the CG made

Not sure how anyone can confuse the two... your so right!

[David M]

You invest where there is the most economic growth in the world and where there is also a stable currency and a stable government.

These countries and regions are an easy Google search.

[David_Old_Jersey]

Always important to understand the difference between investment and speculation - nothing wrong with the latter, just best to know it for what it is.

My fundamental differentiators between the two is "do I completely understand WTF is going on and why?" and "do I have influence over the outcome £££?" and if the answer to those is then it be (to me) speculation....but not to say that speculation does not have it's place.

Of course gold is a bubble at the moment - not to say it won't get bigger (and therefore money to still be made). But all bubbles go pop eventually. Buying as part of your EOTW strategy is one thing or even simply speculating - buying as an "investment" is another.



But not my money, so why should I care? I don't

[Hud3]

To put all your assets in one basket (gold, real estate, whatever) is foolhardy. Listen to what Eric and Andy R have said in previous posts.

It's all just common sense, really...

1. Carefully set your goals--how much do you need to live on?
2. Understand your risk/reward profile-higher returns mean risking more on the down side; lower risk means lower returns.
3. Create a diversified portfolio. Longterm market history will tell you what returns various combinations of stocks, bonds, etc. will generate.
4. Minimize your investment costs. Pick a investment management company that doesn't skim high fees off the top of your earnings. (I use Vanguard).
5. Periodically (once or twice a year) re-balance your portfolio to maintain your diversification objectives.
6. Most importantly, adopt a long-term attitude--don't react to market fluctuations; don't try to time the market. Invest and hold for the long term.

I'd no more listen to someone telling me to stake my financial future on a single commodity or investment niche than I'd send money to a Nigerian Internet scammer.

If you want to be off cruising and enjoying sunsets in exotic anchorages, the last thing you want is to be saddled with worrying about what the markets are doing and how to get connectivity so you can manipulate your investments. The above simple, boring approach allows you to relax and enjoy life. It's worked for me for the past 10 years, through two major market downturns.

[denverd0n]

So, SaucySailoress, are you getting a good feel for what is happening here? Or have you just given up on reading this thread any further?

If you have been reading then you have seen exactly the same thing happen as happens anytime someone asks about investments. Everyone has their favorite. Everyone wants (truly, completely, desperately!) to believe that their personal choice is the absolute best. Everyone wants YOU to jump on the same bandwagon that THEY have jumped on.

Almost no one has told you that only YOU can decide what is best for you, and that what other people have done is a pretty poor guide post for what you should do. Almost no one has said that there is no one answer, and that you will have to find the right mix among the many and various choices that are available for you. (And kudos to those very few who HAVE sent this message!)

So, if you are looking for an easy answer that provides great returns with little or no risk, feel free to throw your money away on any of the choices offered. That's what you will probably end up doing anyway. Why? Because easy, high returns with low risk are the Holy Grail of investing, and like the actual Holy Grail anyone who claims they have it is either lying outright, or they are completely delusional. Period. End of story.

If you have come to realize that there is no simple answer to your question, congratulations. You are ahead of all of the people out there who THINK that they are "investors," but who are actually just chasing get-rich-quick schemes.

[Delfin]

One more try. Since this post started, trading using the methodology described above in my posts with a margin exposure of $32,773.24, the spreads that are seasonal and that I have invested in for this period are up $9,815.47. Yes, this is a good week. Over the year, you would expect to see a gain of around $80,000, so it was a very good week. The beta for these spreads are unknown, but I think less than the stock market, and owning some real estate I can tell you a whole lot less hassle than that. Total time spent managing the account - perhaps 30 minutes. Current spreads:

Long Sept Crude, Short May Crude (neutral gain/loss)
Long August Live Cattle, Short August Hogs (nice gain)
Long July Platinum, Short June Gold (big gain)
Long July Hogs, Short June Hogs (modest loss)
Long August Nat Gas, Short June Nat Gas (nice gain)
Long Dec Corn, Short Sept Corn (total effing loser, big loss, but hanging on)

This is a pretty short list, usually I have more trades on, but I side stepped the currency trades because I am not man enough. If I had the cojones for those, the account would be up a great deal more, but I'm just a mouse trying to snatch scraps off the lion's table.

I have no financial or other interest in Moore Research or Interactive Brokers. Everyone should make their own investment decisions, and following investment advice from someone on a forum, even if correct, should be approached cautiously.

[Zonker]

Delfin - these are all calendar spreads and def. no investment products. I would say very speculative plays and I would recommend NOT to invest in such way for the average Joe!

[Delfin]

Originally Posted by Zonker

Delfin - these are all calendar spreads and def. no investment products. I would say very speculative plays and I would recommend NOT to invest in such way for the average Joe!

Fair point, Zonker, I would agree. They do take more sophistication than a passive investment. The only advantage is that for going on a decade, the methodology has delivered a very high rate of return, and can be managed while cruising.

I might disagree with you on the characterization of 'speculative'. Individual spreads, yes. Multiple spreads over multiple commodity groups repeated 125 times in a year, much less so.