Best Caribbean Location for Hurricane Season

[Palarran]

Originally Posted by osirissail

- - Beyond that, anybody staying in the "zone/box" is taking a chance that any storms will not be a direct hit (inside 50nm). Given the large size of the Caribbean Basin the probabilities of taking a direct hit are statistically small enough that many hundreds, if not thousands, of boats do not leave the "box."

To add my .02, when you use the term "anybody", that's an absolute which really is not substantiated. "Many" or "Most" would be better. Also, saying that "any" storm direct hit is also to much of an absolute. "I think" it may depend on the storm's strength. Earl just passed several islands within 25 miles as a category 3/4 and not "all" the boats where lost. In my marina, which was well within 50 miles, none where.

I'm interested in this thread as I currently have a boat in the box with no intention of moving it. But it seems to be argumentative which isn't of interest to me.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Palarran

To add my .02, when you use the term "anybody", that's an absolute which really is not substantiated. "Many" or "Most" would be better...

Actually, osirissail originally said: "Beyond that, anybody staying in the "zone/box" is taking a chance"; which admits uncertainty.

[osirissail]

I will have to side with HUD3, when you start picking on pronoun usage and taking stuff out of context, you are departing to outside the forum rules of not picking on people. Give it a break . . . This is supposed to be a thread on "hurricane" holes or procedures for the Caribbean, not an English grammar test.

[GordMay]

To be fair, Palarran thanked me for my post #62, commenting:
"True, thanks for the correction."

[Hud3]

To get back to the topic...

Choosing a location to ride out the hurricane season is an exercise in probabilities--tropical storms can be experienced almost everywhere, but the probability of experiencing a TS or hurricane varies widely by island. If you know the probabilities, you can make a judgment based on your risk tolerance.

Here's a database that ranks 60 locations in the Caribbean according to TS frequency. Abaco is on top, and Curacao is last. The website is www.stormcarib.com

If you click on an island's link, you'll be able to see all named tropical systems passing within 60 nm of each island in the eastern Caribbean, from 1851 through 2008. You can look at the data in different formats. For example, here's a histogram showing frequency by week for Nevis.

[skipgundlach]

In addition to all the others so far:

Salinas, in PR - way inland, in the mangroves, deep channel to get there (even with our 7' draft).

Hopetown, White Sound Green Turtle Cay, and Man'O'War in the Bahamas, all virtually deserted right now in the height of the season, and hurricane-proven moorings. There's one in Marsh Harbour, too, but that's a bit more exposed.

The island just below Georgetown, where the new development never quite made it, which name escapes me just now. High hills all around, no structural debris risk.

The lagoon north in Normans Cay in the Exumas, ditto. Very convoluted entrance, tricky in a deep draft boat, not possible over 6' other than lunar high.

Dunno if you consider the Bahamas "Caribbean" but these are our preferred holes where we are right now, in the Bahamas.

L8R

Skip, aboard Morgan 461 #2, SV Flying Pig KI4MPC - currently in Hopetown, Abaco Bahamas

[caribcruiser]

I would go to somewhere like Aruba. It is below the hurricane belt but it is a greast place with great people. If you want, you could also go to somewhere like Bermuda where hurricanes do happen, but not anywhere as often as the Caribbean.

[lorrie]

I read your website story Janice you are a lucky lady so I know you will stay out of harms way.

Lorrie

[Cats Eye]

Originally Posted by CGB GAREY

Hello Janice. Haven't been there recently, but in the N end of the Caribbean one can't do much better than Ensenada Honda at Culebra (between St Thomas and Puerto Rico). I was there for Hugo in '89. It has a narrow entrance, heavy mud bottom, hills around a fair proportion of the harbor, and (at least then) not a lot of building to provide airborne shrapnel. Narrow inlets with mangroves on the N side of the harbor provide exceptional shelter.

I was in Ensenada Honda Vieques this past season for Earl. The mangroves where great shelter. My insurance DOES cover my boat to be in the virgin islands for hurricane season. I have been in the USVI for 9 years and 6 of them I have had boat insurance that will cover me here.

[henryk]

Originally Posted by wadda

We spent a season in Luperon, Dominican Republic...actually 7 months. A dirty little town with the best bunch of people one could hope to find....well most of them.

A goat sits of the city park bench, sheep and stray dogs run the streets. The beer is cheap. The locals tolerate bad gringo spanish and will take the time to help you get it right...if you want. The DR is a lovely island with lots of history and loads to see.

The harbor has 360 degree protection with excellent holding. The Port Authority sticks you for about 20 bucks a month harbor fee and the Commandante is slightly corrupt and 'charges' an extra 10 bucks per boat when it leaves.

Most of the ex-pat community is quite decent and if you don't mind small towns in remote locations...Luperon.

Here is a link to a swf I made last October of the harbor:

http://sites.google.com/a/wadda.org/...eronHarbor.swf

The file is 8 megs, and you might not have the software configured properly....but give it a shot.

Come on Mo!! tell us about the rat you traped there
Best regards from the whole crew on 'Lala'

[skipgundlach]

Originally Posted by caribcruiser

I would go to somewhere like Aruba. It is below the hurricane belt but it is a greast place with great people. If you want, you could also go to somewhere like Bermuda where hurricanes do happen, but not anywhere as often as the Caribbean.

Heh. Except for last year, when it was hit, time after time, as everything dodged the Abacos where we hid out...

L8R

Skip

[osirissail]

I don't think so . . . The one and only storm that went anywhere near Aruba was Tropical Storm Tomas (see chart below for year 2010). And the center of the Tomas was N13.5 degrees with winds of 40 kts while the north tip of Aruba is at N12.5 degrees.

[skipgundlach]

Originally Posted by osirissail

I don't think so . . . The one and only storm that went anywhere near Aruba was Tropical Storm Tomas (see chart below for year 2010). And the center of the Tomas was N13.5 degrees with winds of 40 kts while the north tip of Aruba is at N12.5 degrees.

My apologies. I should have "bolded" the comment about how Bermuda next to never gets hurricanes. There was no reference to frequency about Aruba, so I assumed that the erudition and perspicacity of the readers of this forum would pick up on it immediately.

So, I agree that Aruba is a nice place for the hurricane season. Bermuda, not so much, at least last year...

L8R

Skip

[osirissail]

Me too, my apologies, Skip - since Aruba was the first named place and you did not specify which of the two you were talking about, I just assumed it was Aruba especially since the title thread was about the Caribbean.

[Kettlewell]

Wait a minute, back to the OP, Maine is "paradise." Their slogan is "the way life should be," and to many it is right up there with the top cruising destinations in the world. If you have the time, I would suggest giving a northern trip some serious thought, but not this year--it is too late in the season to be sailing across the Caribbean. One contrast that many on here sound like they would appreciate is the near total lack of crime to worry about. Many Mainers leave their boats unlocked, year round, whether on the mooring or ashore--same as their homes and cars. There is no such thing as locking your dinghy at the dinghy dock. But of course the big attraction is the gorgeous scenery, interesting exploration on a complicated coastline, quaint little villages, lobsters, blueberry pie, ice cold water all around, and general lack of hurricanes. For the more adventurous there is New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and even Labrador. Try it, you might like it.