SHTF and Boats

[hpeer]

^+1. Exactly right.

The long term is easy to predict; we WILL run out of oil and water and productive farm land, no doubt about it. Throw climate change in if you want to argue and distract, but lets not.

Its the relatively short term (1-5 decades) fluctuations that we go through, significant to our life span but not our history, that are so damn difficult to predict.

Super simple example; I KNOW with 100% certainty I will die within 50 years. But I have inky educated guesses on WHICH year that event will occur.

Much the same for our culture.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Corvidae

What's been worrying me lately isn't just that people were warning about a plague forever, it's the list of other things scientists have been warning about for just as long. From the obvious economic political bickering you can see in this thread, to that meteorite we just couldn't see until too late. Who knows when someone might walk off with one of Pakistan's nukes, or North Korea realizes they have everything they need to make a corona virus, that's WAY more deadly, but only to non-oriental populations.



Human technology has vastly surpassed our sociology, and is yet far too feeble to keep us safe. Even the very benign discoveries of aging treatment or prosthetic interfaces, could easily break the world economy and cause massive wars.



Syria has a draught, which causes farmers to go bankrupt, which sends them to the cities for jobs. Unemployment and homelessness skyrockets, leading to mass unrest and civil war. Which causes mass exodus from the country, destabilizing the entire EU, shifting political stances across the continent, and ends up with the UK leaving the EU.



That's about 1% of the projected damage from climate change over the next century.



So what else have we been warned about for decades?

I think One must be careful about over simplistic conclusions

The planet is remarkably resilient and humans are incredibly adaptable.

Yes we have screwed up here and there but over the longer term things are improving. Even in my lifetime the change in thinking around litter , sewerage disposal , landfill , recycling policies has been remarkable.

Again the war in Syria had a very multi faceted beginning not just garnets and drought. There has been resistance to Assad’s regime for years. Equally he fell under the USA policy of destabilising former soviet sphere of influence countries

The U.K. left the EU for a large number of domestic reasons largely fuelled by a 30 year mis-information campaign and infighting within the Tory party. It s a complex situation but can’t be soley parked at refugeees door

The real world is complex and so will be the solutions

[hpeer]

Yes we have screwed up here and there but over the longer term things are improving. Even in my lifetime the change in thinking around litter , sewerage disposal , landfill , recycling policies has been remarkable.

In your lifetime the world population has more than doubled and the oil reserves have fallen to less than half. Our fisheries have been reduced by over 75%. And our desire for more “stuff” grows daily.

Most of those improvements you see are because we have off shored manufacturing and pollution to third world countries who still hunger for our consumptive life style.

Think of Earth’s resources as a retirement account. We have been withdrawing capital for about 100 years, every year at an increasing rate. The difference is this account needs to last forever. The SHTF when the account goes bankrupt. But then what do you live on?

Will humanity survive? Quite possibly.

Will our culture survive? That is the question.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by hpeer

In your lifetime the world population has more than doubled and the oil reserves have fallen to less than half. Our fisheries have been reduced by over 75%. And our desire for more “stuff” grows daily.

Most of those improvements you see are because we have off shored manufacturing and pollution to third world countries who still hunger for our consumptive life style.

Think of Earth’s resources as a retirement account. We have been withdrawing capital for about 100 years, every year at an increasing rate. The difference is this account needs to last forever. The SHTF when the account goes bankrupt. But then what do you live on?

Will humanity survive? Quite possibly.

Will our culture survive? That is the question.

That question will not bother me.

[hpeer]

^ baloney, you’ve been had and you are avoiding.

When your PERSONAL bank account goes bust you darn well will care.

The question then becomes will it go bust in your lifetime? And that none of us know.

[David Ess]

Originally Posted by shorebird

A few years back, when I was building our vacation cabin, I was exchanging ideas and advice on cabin building on an online small cabin forum, and the SHTF was mentioned by quite a few people in regards to their cabins. SHTF is when the "-hit hits the fan" an expression for the so-called impending collapse of civilization as we know it. Hoarders and "preppers" have been around for centuries, always convinced that the collapse is imminent, but to be fair, the concept is beginning to cross from the fringe, and more into the mainstream. Now people are also pointing out how lucky we will be to be able to live on our boat when SHTF. Although I don't subscribe to the SHTF end of the world scenario, it strikes me as prudent to have a small emergency kit at home as well as on the boat. Are other boaters preparing or planning for the possibility of living aboard during a severe downturn? Some refer to it as a "bug out" plan.

Some did that when the pandemic started. Stocked up 6 months food and sailed away. Luckily this 'collapse of civilization' never happened. And if it even happens , even well stocked boaters will be screwed too. Only the preppers in the countryside will likely survive.

[hpeer]

David,

I don’t know, maybe. We were “away” when covid hit. I moved down to Dominica and faired well there. We eventually sailed back to the USA but by then the situation had stabilized.

Even those with well stocked cabins will have to contend with thievery.

Will tough no matter where you are.

[David Ess]

Originally Posted by hpeer

David,

I don’t know, maybe. We were “away” when covid hit. I moved down to Dominica and faired well there. We eventually sailed back to the USA but by then the situation had stabilized.

Even those with well stocked cabins will have to contend with thievery.

Will tough no matter where you are.

Quite right. It was no world wide collapse , and some places hardly noticed, like Sweden. Most of the problems were stupid governments closing down their economies.

[hpeer]

David,
I agree. Stupid is very hard to predict, there are SOOOOO MANY options. Almost anything can happen in the short term.

Long term general situation is a different thing.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by David Ess

Quite right. It was no world wide collapse , and some places hardly noticed, like Sweden. Most of the problems were stupid governments closing down their economies.

Actually in many places the economy grew. Including those with lockdowns

[goboatingnow]

Prepping won’t work if civilisation falls. The hordes will take it all

[David Ess]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Prepping won’t work if civilisation falls. The hordes will take it all

Some of them are probably isolated and well defended enough to survive. Its tough for spoiled city slickers to wander in the wilds for too long, then if they find a community, live thru the bullets that will be shot at them. If no state, people can, and will defend themselves. Indeed even now, its why antifa goons never attack even the suburbs, muchless biker bars, or small towns, etc. The few times they tried they really , really regretted it.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by David Ess

Some did that when the pandemic started. Stocked up 6 months food and sailed away. Luckily this 'collapse of civilization' never happened. And if it even happens , even well stocked boaters will be screwed too. Only the preppers in the countryside will likely survive.

I did this, but not because the world was ending. Just so we could be away from people while Covid was a lot more of a mystery with no vaccines.

[Corvidae]

Originally Posted by David Ess

Quite right. It was no world wide collapse , and some places hardly noticed, like Sweden. Most of the problems were stupid governments closing down their economies.

Sweden has more Covid deaths than all other Scandinavian countries combined.

People can prep all they want, it's not like there haven't been preppers for centuries. Personally, I've never seen a case for wilderness isolation turning out better than the average citizen. Sure, those that stay engaged in their society run various risks. On average though, a decade later, those that stay are going to always be better off than the guy that hid in the woods.

[Tetepare]

If there were a global catastrophe, you’d eventually have to make landfall. Where you gonna go? Locals are going to be more interested in what you have than in feeding you.

I always thought SoPac would be a great place to ride out a nuke exchange. We now know the Russians had targeted SoPac islands to deny use to US aircraft. So much for that.

I suppose better on a boat halfway to Nuku Hiva than NYC during a SHTF. But then, that’s true at this very moment too.

As for a bugout bag OP mentioned, always a good idea. Any number of common events could prevent one from going home for a night or a week. I keep a change of clothes, extra coats, blankets, and water in the truck. If you wanna drive around with 5000 rounds in the trunk (boot) go to town. It’s always good to have cash, because there have been times the ATMs are all dead.