SHTF and Boats

[hpeer]

One can always imagine scenarios where a bug out boat fails. I think the same is true for any solution.

My belief, and it is only a belief; is that a bug out boat gives you more options in more situations, it preserves flexibility.

I also think it is important to have some place to land where you will be welcome, not a stranger. We are fortunate to have one.

And I think it is wrong to consider living on a boat for an extended period away from land. Again, for me, the SHTF boat provides mobility to a different location and the ability to remove yourself from a bad situation.

Had we still been living in center city Philly during the recent (quite mild) civil unrest we may well have elected to head for the boat for a few weeks while it settled out.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by David Ess

Some of them are probably isolated and well defended enough to survive. Its tough for spoiled city slickers to wander in the wilds for too long, then if they find a community, live thru the bullets that will be shot at them. If no state, people can, and will defend themselves. Indeed even now, its why antifa goons never attack even the suburbs, muchless biker bars, or small towns, etc. The few times they tried they really , really regretted it.

You really need to study history especially early European history

Firstly city dwellers being more numerous tend to arm up and create fiefdoms. You need a certain mass of people to create a sustainable and defendable area. Then these city “ states “ extend their reach into the country , isolated groups ( armed to the teeth or not ) get sucked up , or killed . Rural people armed or not continuously got “ pushed around “ from one ruling group to the next

A bunch of preppers living in the hills , stand no chance against 10,000 armed hungry people.

Prepping only works if people don’t know you exist , once they find you it’s curtains. It doesn’t matter how many AR16s you have , you can only reliably fire one at a time.

Look at the tribal /warlord situation in Afghanistan , people congregate behind large groups for safety. It’s how the walled city came into existence. Some compound in the hills of Montana ain’t going to cut it.

Antifa isnt composed of hungry people with nothing to loose. And bikers are just old fat blokes , neither would survive minutes in any real civil conflict.

Americans in particular have no real understanding of civil conflict , Europe is soaked in centuries of its own blood.

[dwedeking2]

In a total collapse the threat isn't the initial event (natural disaster, pandemic, war, etc) but other humans. You likely won't survive without out protection from a warlord (kind of like now without any event). Like hpeer said, a boat gives you mobility and options. "Prepping" gives you time to adjust as things unfold.

[hpeer]

^ One MUST sleep, then they get you.

I see the civil collapse situation in a similar light.

Yet living in a major metro area has its own special issues. Traffic stops dead easily, water/sewer/electric, are reliant upon the government working. And the Philly government is pretty marginal right now without any special issues. It has been skating disaster for years. It won’t take much for hell to break loose.

It all devolves to protecting yourself within a successful tribe, and we want nothing to do with any of the existing tribes. If you are of the type that easily fits in and blends with the crowd and can chant their slogans with conviction then you have a better chance. Neither of us even roughly fit that description. This is a personal observation with no bias intended, it is just a true evaluation of OUR personalities. Others must find the solution that works for them.

There is no one right answer, various strategies can and will work, or fail, depending upon specific non-predictable circumstances.

The best I can recommend is to plan upon flexibility.

[David Ess]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

You really need to study history especially early European history

Firstly city dwellers being more numerous tend to arm up and create fiefdoms. You need a certain mass of people to create a sustainable and defendable area. Then these city “ states “ extend their reach into the country , isolated groups ( armed to the teeth or not ) get sucked up , or killed . Rural people armed or not continuously got “ pushed around “ from one ruling group to the next

A bunch of preppers living in the hills , stand no chance against 10,000 armed hungry people.

Prepping only works if people don’t know you exist , once they find you it’s curtains. It doesn’t matter how many AR16s you have , you can only reliably fire one at a time.

Look at the tribal /warlord situation in Afghanistan , people congregate behind large groups for safety. It’s how the walled city came into existence. Some compound in the hills of Montana ain’t going to cut it.

Antifa isnt composed of hungry people with nothing to loose. And bikers are just old fat blokes , neither would survive minutes in any real civil conflict.

Americans in particular have no real understanding of civil conflict , Europe is soaked in centuries of its own blood.

I know lots of history, and also know its a false assumption about a force of 10k coming fro m a city. Usually its a ragtag small group of spoilt useless people who couldnt last more than a few days. Ypure also wrong about antifa goons and bikers, they did try it out once at some biker rally, and promptly got the **** kicked out of them. With no gov to protect the goons, they would have been shot.

[LargeMarge]

Originally Posted by micah719

The shtf scenario isn't far fetched...and the great danger...is from the desperate masses deprived of their comfy hedonistic existences, which if you turn the power off for 48 hours and close the petrol stations, will strip the veneer of civilisation...an expedition boat that you can run and fix yourself. If I had a suitable vessel, I'd be out somewhere remote...

And yes, some personal artillery may be a good idea, but let's save that for private discussion, perhaps a new social group. That way the folks that love being defenceless and resent those that think different...

.
According to biologists, every ecosystem has a 'Carrying Capacity', the balanced state of predators and prey.
For example, if venison on the hoof reproduce beyond the natural ability of grazing plants to support them, starvation is inevitable, followed by a die-off until stability is again reached.
.
If predators -- wolves, humans -- harvest venison beyond the reproductive ability of the dears, that segment faces an extinction event... for both predators and prey.
.
Research indicates the Carrying Capacity of humans on the North American continent is around a million souls.
As I understand it, the population stands at nearly a half billion with a 'B'.
This's obviously not sustainable without massive investments of petroleum-based chemicals on factory-farms.
.
2021 and beyond:
I think we can see an inevitable reduction in easy-access petroleum-based chemicals for factory-farms.
I think we can see the inevitable reduction in petroleum-based fuels to transfer food and equipment outside of local growers and farms.
.
'Yes', petroleum will be available, but costs of extraction reached the tipping-point decades ago.
Extraction costs more than the value received.
Hence, the 'kicking-the-can-down-the-road' philosophy of bankers and bureaucrats.
.
One example:
During the dam-all-rivers heyday of the 1930-60 era, thousands of rivers were turned into reservoirs.
Standing downstream from these colossal achievements, the advertised water-holding capacity must be phenomenal, right?
Nope.
As rain on mountains erodes soil, those rushing rivers carry that sediment... until it is quarantined behind a dam.
The slowed water drops its heavier components, and the former floor of the valley fills.
The canyon turns into a swampy meadow.
.
In north California upstream from Sacramento, Folsom Dam forms Folsom Reservoir.
Built around 1960, scaling the canyon downstream of the dam would require technical climbing gear on an experienced crew.
Upstream of the dam, that former canyon is a gravel lot, nearly level with the top of the dam, the drought-stricken river a mere trickle off to one side.
.
East of Cottage Grove, Oregon, Dorena Dam is a massive earth structure.
Downstream looking up at the dam, I can easily imagine a yuge reservoir.
Upstream from the dam, Dorena Reservoir is a sandy gravel lot, nearly level with the top of the dam, drought-stricken Row River a mere trickle off to one side.
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Extrapolated for 2021 and beyond, I think the human Carrying Capacity of North America is in the process of an automatic adjustment.
During this adjustment, some survivors may see this as an 'extinction-level event'.
I see these adjustments as an abandonment of unsustainable expectations:
* We expected our dams to hold water, but instead, they hold gravel debris.
* We expected petroleum-based chemicals on farms to compensate for depleted top-soil, but instead, those chemicals are pricing beyond our abilities to pay for them.
.
Anybody with eyes can see cities import everything they eat, drink, burn.
Cities export garbage, medical waste, trash... dictates and 'law' without regard to natural consequences.
And as urbanites realize their weak position, cities export voters.
.
During this collapse, I think we can expect a further deterioration in respect for property rights, including the abilities of farmers and ranchers to invest in their ground while expecting a reasonable return on their investment.
Plant corn, expect that crop to not be scavenged prior to harvest.
Plant some lambs, expect that crop to eventually mature to a marketable product... and not be devastated short-term by those with little understanding of cause-effect.
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I think the Carrying Capacity of any species requires a genetic ability to understand the consequences of exceeding that natural limit.
I think humans lack that understanding... or choose to ignore it.
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As a result, I think the remainder of this collapse will indeed resemble an 'extinction-level event'.
I think the learned expectation of lack of consequences... well, I should stop there.
Decent productive law-abiding humans against the ruthless and depraved?

[hpeer]

Large Marge,

Great post. Clearly you are one of the 1% with ability to take a different point of view and a future time frame.

FWIW you may enjoy the forum Peakoil.com.

[David Ess]

LargeMarge....false comparison wild animals to humans. We are not dependand as animals are for things like grazing range, number of prey animals. etc. One million carrying capacity for all north america? Ridiculous...even in pre columbian times there were more than a million indians living just fine in most areas. Imagine what those biologists would say the capacity for singore island would be, like maybe 500? Yet theres more than 5 million there in one of the best, richest garden city states in the world...an island about 20 miles square. How do you account for that?

[David Ess]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Large Marge,

Great post. Clearly you are one of the 1% with ability to take a different point of view and a future time frame.

FWIW you may enjoy the forum Peakoil.com.

Too bad shes wrong, false comparison, false logic. See my rebuttal to her.

[hpeer]

Fossil fuel support.

LargeMarge may be off by a bit for her population estimates but she is in the right ball park.


By my own estimation the carrying capacity of Earth, in its natural state, is about 500 million. Or about 8% of what we now have. If that were to scale across all populations it would put the USA at about 20 million. That is likely a high number as we have done a lot of damage to eco systems.

Thats not a number I pulled outta my keister but its derivation would take too long to explain. If I got a number of requests I would write it out. It is really pretty simple in concept.

LargeMarge is more right than wrong.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by David Ess

I know lots of history, and also know its a false assumption about a force of 10k coming fro m a city. Usually its a ragtag small group of spoilt useless people who couldnt last more than a few days. Ypure also wrong about antifa goons and bikers, they did try it out once at some biker rally, and promptly got the **** kicked out of them. With no gov to protect the goons, they would have been shot.

Revolutions are orchestrated by the middle classes , the thinkers , managers and “ do-ers “. The fodder come from the non thinking classes. The thing is 10,000 with small arms being told what to do is a very dangerous force. Think ISIS.

Once the civil norms break down and overarching law enforcement breaks down , the organised feudal style masses quickly gain dominance

Rural dwellers are completely at their mercy , a) they need a “ market “ to financially survive and (b) they are isolated and vulnerable.

Boats are a totally false sense of security , firstly there are a technical beast and require access to technology and secondly staying at sea for extended periods is simply a form of jail

Survival comes from groups large enough to defend themselves and create a largely self sustaining grouping. These tend to form around defensible cities ( ie cities of the size associated with antiquity , not modern ones )

Preppers have limited finite resources after that their just scavengers like everyone else. ( assuming their resources arnt all stolen anyway )

Most tribal societies had no real concept of personal property mainly because yiu couldn’t actually stop the rest of the tribe taking your stuff in the first place and secondly because hoarding was seen as a insult to the rest of the tribe and they just took it away from you.

When thE SHTF , a boats the last thing you need or want , difficult to defend , vulnerable , and far to rich in others peoples eyes.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by hpeer

^ One MUST sleep, then they get you.

I see the civil collapse situation in a similar light.

Yet living in a major metro area has its own special issues. Traffic stops dead easily, water/sewer/electric, are reliant upon the government working. And the Philly government is pretty marginal right now without any special issues. It has been skating disaster for years. It won’t take much for hell to break loose.

It all devolves to protecting yourself within a successful tribe, and we want nothing to do with any of the existing tribes. If you are of the type that easily fits in and blends with the crowd and can chant their slogans with conviction then you have a better chance. Neither of us even roughly fit that description. This is a personal observation with no bias intended, it is just a true evaluation of OUR personalities. Others must find the solution that works for them.

There is no one right answer, various strategies can and will work, or fail, depending upon specific non-predictable circumstances.

The best I can recommend is to plan upon flexibility.

If you can’t or won’t fit into the “ crowd” then the best chance is anonymity, which requires continually moving. The sea might seem appropriate but boats need too many support systems to be independent . A horse might be more useful

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

If you can’t or won’t fit into the “ crowd” then the best chance is anonymity, which requires continually moving. The sea might seem appropriate but boats need too many support systems to be independent . A horse might be more useful

And if you are planning to ride the horse, the best way to survive is to ride low in the saddle and in the middle of the posse. Just the opposite of the intentions of preppers and boaters.

[David Ess]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Fossil fuel support.

LargeMarge may be off by a bit for her population estimates but she is in the right ball park.


By my own estimation the carrying capacity of Earth, in its natural state, is about 500 million. Or about 8% of what we now have. If that were to scale across all populations it would put the USA at about 20 million. That is likely a high number as we have done a lot of damage to eco systems.

Thats not a number I pulled outta my keister but its derivation would take too long to explain. If I got a number of requests I would write it out. It is really pretty simple in concept.

LargeMarge is more right than wrong.

Shes wrong on all counts. I Rebutted her and neither she nor you count account for myve ample of Singapore.

[skipperpete]

Singapore has no actual food production, no cattle ranches no vast cereal crops maybe a few fruit trees , not much in the way of fishing or sea farms and bugger all fresh water. Without external food chains this country would collapse in very short order. Singapore is a poor choice.