SHTF and Boats

[GordMay]

[hpeer]

Lake,

Some of it depends upon where you live. Rural, suburban, and urban answers will all be different.

When we lived in Center City Philly SHTF was always one riot around the corner. 1999 our neighborhood had multiple blocks with out mains power for months, they had 3 tractor trailer size gen units running full time, one was so big it had a second trailer as the fuel tank. Man holes blowing up on my block, in front of MY door. The gas company could not transfer/olen an account in 3 months. And now the water company has something like 30,000 over billed accounts, some above $100,000, we are in court for our rental property bill. Saw a pot hole the other day, someone stuck an orange cone in it, 4” we standing proud, major street.

Over 400 murders, waaay up. The DA and police hate each other. The DA ran on reducing bail, now he is pissed at nudes for bit setting bail high enough. Under the p% of murders bring charges, under 15% for non lethal shootings. No one will talk and squeal. That is because the communities have zero trust in the system tk dk right by them or protect then if they testify. One young fellow who did was gunned down mid day in LOVE park, standing in a crowd of friends. No witnesses.

It just goes on and on. 30 years ago my Wife was in live with Philly, now she wants no association, she is pushing to sell our rental. I think she is right.

SHTF is not a singular moment or event, it can be the gradual decent into barbarisim/tribalisim. The neighborhoods have no faith in the city government, nor should they, the previous DA and our congressional representative and a host of others are sitting in jail on corruption charges. Remember it is the dumb ones that get caught.

[David Ess]

Originally Posted by hpeer

That guy was LargeMarge. No, Marge and I agree in principle. She said 1 million, I see it as more like 20 million.

My 20 million was based upon a relatively intact eco system.

HOWEVER, people that study this question intently note that Earth’s ability to support life is being severely negatively impacted by many factors.

That NA supported (something like) 20 millions in the past does not mean it can support those numbers in the future. Pre-Columbian NA had nearly intact eco systems, vibrant estuaries filled with oysters and all manner of shell fish. There were buffalo in North Carolina, walrus throughout the North East, salmon rivers galore. That is all gone now, the system is impoverished. It will never return to its Pre-Columbian state.

When you then read about these early populations and understand that a “tribe” may consist of no more than 20 to 50 people and they occupied 10 to 15 square miles of land, well then you get an idea of how sparse the populations were. Sure there were some larger developments here and there, but they were jot normal. Central America had more dense populations, but they went through culturally collapse and suffered very deep population losses, before exposure to Europeans and their diseases. Those reasons are not understood and research is very incomplete.

A major problem with discussions if this nature is that we grow up in some particular world and then accept that as our baseline for “normal”. We can then see some degradation during our lifetime. Yet our children grow up and they accept as normal some new previously degraded baseline as “normal.” In other words - our perception of “normal” resets to a new degraded level about every 20 years.

To understand where we are today you need to understand where we came from 500 years ago. That is not easy. I had a bit of an unusual upbringing which exposed me to a greater range of change than normal. I sometimes forget that my perspective is unusual.

If I may suggest a book to you and any others with the stomach for it try reading “SEA OF SLAUGHTER”. It is by Farley Mowat, who was a good yarn spinner. He was also an able chronicler of history. As far as I can tell this book is well researched and mostly accurate.

In short, 20 million was what we could support 500 years ago. Marge’s number of 1 million may well be closer to the current mark.

The current mark is not one million for north america. On another Angle, the envieonmenyvwas not even intact in pre columbian times. One example is thecMayan empire failing before the Spaniards arrived. Even the Indians weren't dependant on their tribal are or islands....they traded with other tribes, often over long distances, just like us.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Lake,

Some of it depends upon where you live. Rural, suburban, and urban answers will all be different.

When we lived in Center City Philly SHTF was always one riot around the corner.

[list of Philly issues]

SHTF is not a singular moment or event, it can be the gradual decent into barbarisim/tribalisim. The neighborhoods have no faith in the city government, nor should they, the previous DA and our congressional representative and a host of others are sitting in jail on corruption charges. Remember it is the dumb ones that get caught.

Well, first, my condolences re your Philly issues. But I'd regard that as local, one that many, like yourself, have the ability to simply leave, and that other people have somehow adapted to. Just S, hasn't really HTF. I guess that if enough cities in one country were to similarly deteriorate, you'd have a national-level crisis, and either martial law would be imposed, or some sort of oligarchic power structure (think Russia) would emerge. A hidey-hole in Montana would not confer much advantage in either of these scenarios.

[David Ess]

Originally Posted by hpeer

Lake,

Some of it depends upon where you live. Rural, suburban, and urban answers will all be different.

When we lived in Center City Philly SHTF was always one riot around the corner. 1999 our neighborhood had multiple blocks with out mains power for months, they had 3 tractor trailer size gen units running full time, one was so big it had a second trailer as the fuel tank. Man holes blowing up on my block, in front of MY door. The gas company could not transfer/olen an account in 3 months. And now the water company has something like 30,000 over billed accounts, some above $100,000, we are in court for our rental property bill. Saw a pot hole the other day, someone stuck an orange cone in it, 4” we standing proud, major street.

Over 400 murders, waaay up. The DA and police hate each other. The DA ran on reducing bail, now he is pissed at nudes for bit setting bail high enough. Under the p% of murders bring charges, under 15% for non lethal shootings. No one will talk and squeal. That is because the communities have zero trust in the system tk dk right by them or protect then if they testify. One young fellow who did was gunned down mid day in LOVE park, standing in a crowd of friends. No witnesses.

It just goes on and on. 30 years ago my Wife was in live with Philly, now she wants no association, she is pushing to sell our rental. I think she is right.

SHTF is not a singular moment or event, it can be the gradual decent into barbarisim/tribalisim. The neighborhoods have no faith in the city government, nor should they, the previous DA and our congressional representative and a host of others are sitting in jail on corruption charges. Remember it is the dumb ones that get caught.

Theres a lot to that, not just Philly, but we see the same elsewhere and its expanding...Portland, Frisco, Chicago. The 'Ferguson Effect' all over(whereby the cops look the other way). The country has many such signs of its degradation. Its gradually turning into another s hole third world country. Its getting to look more and more like Brazil all the time.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by David Ess

Theres a lot to that, not just Philly, but we see the same elsewhere and its expanding...Portland, Frisco, Chicago. The 'Ferguson Effect' all over(whereby the cops look the other way). The country has many such signs of its degradation. Its gradually turning into another s hole third world country. Its getting to look more and more like Brazil all the time.

Sweden: tax burden ~33% of GDP... not a s hole. Other countries, similar.
US: tax burden ~25% of GDP ...?

Ya get what ya pay for.

[David Ess]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Sweden: tax burden ~33% of GDP... not a s hole. Other countries, similar.
US: tax burden ~25% of GDP ...?

Ya get what ya pay for.

False comparison, the states USED to be a more developed, civil country formerly. But of course since you're a big-gov, tax and spend guy, you'd love EVEN more than now. Its also a false analogy to compare huge, heterogenous countries small, mostly homogeneous ones, like sweden of what, only 10 or 12 million. Indeed, in Sweden too, we read of police 'no-go areas'. So even they are deteriorating. Ive even read that they are having increased problems trying to recruit police. Many wont bother joining anymore when they see they could have their careers ruied by being charged with racism for trying to enforce laws. Yes, 'wokeism ' is taking over there too.

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Well, first, my condolences re your Philly issues. But I'd regard that as local, one that many, like yourself, have the ability to simply leave, and that other people have somehow adapted to. Just S, hasn't really HTF. I guess that if enough cities in one country were to similarly deteriorate, you'd have a national-level crisis, and either martial law would be imposed, or some sort of oligarchic power structure (think Russia) would emerge. A hidey-hole in Montana would not confer much advantage in either of these scenarios.

Philly is just an average American city, some marginally better, quite a few worse. At least we dont have lead water pipes.

Over 50% of Americans live in urban areas so this is the majority experience.

The oligarchy power structure is One Party Rule. Philly has been Democrat run since 1952. Chicago since the 1930’s.

No body told the soviets a month ahead the day then USSR would collapse, it just did.

As to Montana, I make no comment. We have a SHTF boat and a more remote (than Montana) cabin, in a different country, on an island, with family.

[hpeer]

Originally Posted by David Ess

Theres a lot to that, not just Philly, but we see the same elsewhere and its expanding...Portland, Frisco, Chicago. The 'Ferguson Effect' all over(whereby the cops look the other way). The country has many such signs of its degradation. Its gradually turning into another s hole third world country. Its getting to look more and more like Brazil all the time.

This is what collapse looks like. No billboards. You just wake up one day and the lights don't come on, the tap is dry.

I make no predictions of when that could happen, too many variables. Could be in 5 years, maybe 20, or maybe Thursday.

[boatman61]

It's the fate of all 'civilisations' since before pre history..
A strong small aggressive clique gradually take over their country, then move on a neighbour, then another.
Rushed, it fails by expanding faster than it can bring new conquests completely to heel.. Third Reich for example.
Others like Rome go more slowly through trade and military alliance till one morning folks start waking up to the realisation they are part of the Roman Empire and native rule is purely symbolic.
But all share one thing, the rot starts in the head and moves dowards through society as Hedonism and Bacchanalia becomes the norm turning the population into malleable putty with few principles and fewer loyalties.. along comes a new group of hardened moral zealots in the border countries and the limbs start to drop off like leaves off a rotting tree.
Just have to figure out which 'Barbarians' will come out on top...
Or is it, which 'Good Morals' will destroy the Devils Spawn in the West..
Islam or China... Africa's chance at united strength died with Gadaffi..

[David Ess]

Originally Posted by hpeer

This is what collapse looks like. No billboards. You just wake up one day and the lights don't come on, the tap is dry.

I make no predictions of when that could happen, too many variables. Could be in 5 years, maybe 20, or maybe Thursday.

Yes, and its already happening. More looting since they know they can get away with it, more vandalism, more antifa goons, more censorship, more 'Ferguson Effect' among cops, more 'stand down ' orders by sleazy politicians(except for their own armed guards), more private security since we cantvdepend on the state, more gated communities for defense, etc. Like Brazil.

[David Ess]

Originally Posted by boatman61

It's the fate of all 'civilisations' since before pre history..
A strong small aggressive clique gradually take over their country, then move on a neighbour, then another.
Rushed, it fails by expanding faster than it can bring new conquests completely to heel.. Third Reich for example.
Others like Rome go more slowly through trade and military alliance till one morning folks start waking up to the realisation they are part of the Roman Empire and native rule is purely symbolic.
But all share one thing, the rot starts in the head and moves dowards through society as Hedonism and Bacchanalia becomes the norm turning the population into malleable putty with few principles and fewer loyalties.. along comes a new group of hardened moral zealots in the border countries and the limbs start to drop off like leaves off a rotting tree.
Just have to figure out which 'Barbarians' will come out on top...
Or is it, which 'Good Morals' will destroy the Devils Spawn in the West..
Islam or China... Africa's chance at united strength died with Gadaffi..

Fair enough, but even places that were not really imperialistic, or militarists still often fell from internal weaknesses, decadence, laziness, complacency, etc. Look at Germany, the guys who beat the Roman empire, now a self loathing death-cult place, unwilling to even defend themselves.

[Tetepare]

I think addressing the decay of society is S, not SHTF.

As noted, there have been localized SHTF in North America; short-lived, certainly problematic, but in the long term not the end as we know it.

SHTF means a major event over a large area, and the country/ region can't be bailed out. Some cite CME, EMP, or other. In any event, a real SHTF means no power, no water, no sewer, no Internet, no food delivery to markets. And, to be clear to those who are a bit lost, it means no manufacturing, no cell phones. This leads to a quick breakdown of law and order. Like Katrina, but long-term and not recoverable. Boat beats suburbs.

Even in the short term, a localized month-long event, boat probably beats staying in the suburbs or trying to make a run for it.

I think Lake Effect said everyone should be able to weather a week...that's true at home or on a boat. Back to OP, everyone should have a "bugout bag" in the car in case they can't get home.

But few are so prepared. How many in Texas later went out and bought a generator? I do wonder what proportion of the affected did; probably a lot less than should have. When COVID hit NY, there was a huge run on TP and bottled water...by people who are generally unprepared. Even by people who should know better- all looking for ammo. Unprepared.

In my lifetime I've gone without power for a week multiple times, including in winter. So, then, have millions of others- shouldn't they be prepared? Uh huh. But they're not.

A boat by its very nature is a self-contained bugout bag- in most cases with food, water, fuel, lights, electricity, mobility, communications. And, without the restraints of clogged roadways. Sure makes sense to me. If ya got it, better than not having it. Of course, if it's on the hard and the water is frozen, it's not of as much use. :-)

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by David Ess

Fair enough, but even places that were not really imperialistic, or militarists still often fell from internal weaknesses, decadence, laziness, complacency, etc. Look at Germany, the guys who beat the Roman empire, now a self loathing death-cult place, unwilling to even defend themselves.

Oh Germany still harbours dreams of an Empire.. this time its called The European Union..
One more shot at the Franco-Prussian Empire..

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by boatman61

... One more shot at the Franco-Prussian Empire.

What Franco-Prussian Empire?
Are you referring to the war of 1870–1871 between them, and Otto von Bismarck’s unification of Germany’s smaller States* [behind Prussia] into a nation-state, forming the German Empire?
* except Austria