Addressing Misinformation and Harmful Content Online

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

The primary reason for the current high levels on all the Lakes is ... drum roll please ... because the watershed has received more moisture than 'normal' over the last few years.

Above recent "AVERAGE", not above "NORMAL".

It's "normal" for the water levels to vary annually, over a roughly 30yr period and over longer time periods. There is clear evidence going back around 5000yrs (well before man made climate change) and among the more recent data following a similar pattern.

https://www.canr.msu.edu/news/whats_...water_levels_1

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by danstanford

Mike, do you have any sense how either has impacted our recent results water level wise?

The data and analysis I've read blames the current high levels on above average amounts of moisture being dumped in the watershed. But there are also confounding factors around the decline of wetlands (marshes, swamps, bogs) which have been removed by human development. These natural sponges used to help mitigate the effects of rapid moisture changes, but human development often plows them over.

Originally Posted by danstanford

Recent discussion and news certainly indicates to me that the ability of the dam at the bottom of Lake Ontario to control the levels is quite limited. It can only reduce the levels so much without being a hazard to homes and navigation below the dam and it needs to flow some limiting its ability to raise the lake levels.

I've read the same. I forget the max flow numbers, but I know they've been running wide open at times to try and reduce L. Ontario volumes, even while shorelines were being inundated. One can criticize the International Joint Commission which oversees the Great Lakes for the failure to predict the future. But the point is, in a rapidly shifting climate, it is simply harder to make these predictions accurately.

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Above recent "AVERAGE", not above "NORMAL".

I put normal in single quotes because it's hard to define "normal" when baselines are shifting rapidly.

Originally Posted by valhalla360

It's "normal" for the water levels to vary annually, over a roughly 30yr period and over longer time periods. There is clear evidence going back around 5000yrs (well before man made climate change) and among the more recent data following a similar pattern.

Of course. This is the challenge in all research on the impacts of the current rapid climate change. Separating out current changes from the "normal" patterns and ranges is what climate scientists do. That's how they have been able to discern the impact of current man-induced climate change.

[LakeSuperior]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

The primary reason for the current high levels on all the Lakes is ... drum roll please ... because the watershed has received more moisture than 'normal' over the last few years.

From the US Corps of Engineers (the folks charged with managing the watershed):


https://www.lre.usace.army.mil/Missions/Great-Lakes-Information/Great-Lakes-Water-Level-Future-Scenarios/

And...Lake Superior has had 95% or greater ice coverage in three of the last six years (ending in 2019) effectively choking off winter evaporation. This is in addition to more moisture in the basin with both adding up to the current high water levels.

[LakeSuperior]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

...This is the challenge in all research on the impacts of the current rapid climate change. Separating out current changes from the "normal" patterns and ranges is what climate scientists do. That's how they have been able to discern the impact of current man-induced climate change.

And this is where the rub is. What are is normal and what are man made changes when the observables consist of long term time-series cycles having many? few? diurnal? variable frequency time-series superimposed for any of the climatic variables. Take your pick.

Teasing out cause and effect, using proxy measurements as the baseline, in many cases becomes the art of seeing what you want see.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

And this is where the rub is. What are is normal and what are man made changes when the observables consist of long term time-series cycles having many? few? diurnal? variable frequency time-series superimposed for any of the climatic variables. Take your pick.
Teasing out cause and effect, using proxy measurements as the baseline, in many cases becomes the art of seeing what you want see.

Although this doesn't reaffirm my ACC opinions, it makes sense.
Way to bust my bubble!

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

And this is where the rub is. What are is normal and what are man made changes when the observables consist of long term time-series cycles having many? few? diurnal? variable frequency time-series superimposed for any of the climatic variables. Take your pick.

Teasing out cause and effect, using proxy measurements as the baseline, in many cases becomes the art of seeing what you want see.

Yes indeed, this is the challenge. But there's nothing particularly new or unique about this challenge with climate research. ALL real-world science operates in a complex and often dynamic set of patterns. Sussing out the targeted phenomena from all the noise is what scientists do.

Of course, they don't always get it right all the time. Of course scientists are biased, just like every human being. But that's why the process of science is the single greatest development humankind has come up with. It works despite these flaws.

[LakeSuperior]

I love it when Lake Superior guys get together. Has me yearning to get out on the water.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by LakeSuperior

I love it when Lake Superior guys get together. Has me yearning to get out on the water.

Oh man... I miss the Big Lake. Of course these days I miss all water since my boat is still being held hostage in Newfoundland .

[GordMay]

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More, from Twitter:

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[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

The data and analysis I've read blames the current high levels on above average amounts of moisture being dumped in the watershed. But there are also confounding factors around the decline of wetlands (marshes, swamps, bogs) which have been removed by human development. These natural sponges used to help mitigate the effects of rapid moisture changes, but human development often plows them over.



I've read the same. I forget the max flow numbers, but I know they've been running wide open at times to try and reduce L. Ontario volumes, even while shorelines were being inundated. One can criticize the International Joint Commission which oversees the Great Lakes for the failure to predict the future. But the point is, in a rapidly shifting climate, it is simply harder to make these predictions accurately.



I put normal in single quotes because it's hard to define "normal" when baselines are shifting rapidly.



Of course. This is the challenge in all research on the impacts of the current rapid climate change. Separating out current changes from the "normal" patterns and ranges is what climate scientists do. That's how they have been able to discern the impact of current man-induced climate change.

At the moment I am watching a woman whose study with other scientists in Oxford is attributing 1500 deaths in the UK as directly attributable to Climate Change since 2000.
Things get more whackadoodle every day.. seems people dying of heat exposure through over indulgence of alcohol and sun on beaches or age related weakness is now a sign of global warming..
Same with growing amount of floods on flood plains that have been built on.. no mention of the fact that river maintenance has been neglected for decades due to EU regulations which make the traditional methods illegal.
Project Fear Lives..

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Project Fear Lives..

Yes, and project ignorance is as strong as ever .

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Yes, and project ignorance is as strong as ever .

Why thank you..
Judgemental as always despite evidence..

[geoleo]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

That's a real twisting to try and justify.

If they only were consuming at 2-3 times the average, you might call it hypocrisy and "who's personally most holy"...These are people consuming at 50-100 times but chastising those living a relatively modest lifestyle.

Real leaders...lead by example.

Like ex-mayor Bloomberg- who routinely flies his huge $75000000 personal jet from NYC to Bermuda and back most weekends-with just him and a co pilot aboard-- of course he is a big proponent of the Green new deal and like.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Why thank you..
Judgemental as always despite evidence..

I was merely reflecting your own "judgemental" attitude in saying the "Project Fear Lives". It was you who felt the need to interject this "judgement."

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

I was merely reflecting your own "judgemental" attitude in saying the "Project Fear Lives". It was you who felt the need to interject this "judgement."

We'll when the study blatantly ignores realities like mass building on flood plains and no maintenance of waterways what can one expect.. that's like saying the rising death rate in Bangladesh because of monsoon flooding is due to climate change and nothing to do with the population explosion over the last 75 years.. 38million in 1950 to 166million today..
In a country that is 80% floodplain can one expect anything less.

As for 1500 people dying as a direct result of climate change in the UK since 2000..
They're having a laugh.. I remember heatwaves in the 80' and 70's and severe winters as well.