Electric Car Economics

[phalo]

I would like to hear of any other 250000 miles battery life hybrid like a64pilot.
One aquaintance has changed his Lexis battery twice in 180000 km. Another with a Mitsubishi phev only got 90000km on battery use only charging it at home then at work.
I have driven a Mitsubishi phev for 3 years in Australia and with replacement battery about $10000 amortised over 90000km would mean AUD 0.16/km, about twice the fuel cost for an ice.
Also at AUD50000 new I was offered AUD14000 trade in with 60000 km. The servicing costs same as ice model so I would not buy one again

I did however speak to Tesla owner with 300000 km on original battery which makes me wonder if it is the continual recycling of hybrid batteries shortening their life.
There are maybe 1% electric cars in Australia.

[Matt Johnson]

Originally Posted by phalo

I would like to hear of any other 250000 miles battery life hybrid like a64pilot.
One aquaintance has changed his Lexis battery twice in 180000 km. Another with a Mitsubishi phev only got 90000km on battery use only charging it at home then at work.
I have driven a Mitsubishi phev for 3 years in Australia and with replacement battery about $10000 amortised over 90000km would mean AUD 0.16/km, about twice the fuel cost for an ice.
Also at AUD50000 new I was offered AUD14000 trade in with 60000 km. The servicing costs same as ice model so I would not buy one again

I did however speak to Tesla owner with 300000 km on original battery which makes me wonder if it is the continual recycling of hybrid batteries shortening their life.
There are maybe 1% electric cars in Australia.

I worked for Toyota during the hybrid Prius hay-day, and while 250,000 is a lot of miles, it was not at all pushing the boundaries of these vehicles. In 2012 when I left, we had a fleet of cabs with 350k... Unfortunately, I never did ask what mileage they reached before before needing replacement. But keep in mind that the Prius was not Lithium but NiMH.

Matt

[a64pilot]

New Prius is I think Lithium, maybe Li-Po. Mine however is NiMH.
However my gen Prius only uses 40% of its battery capacity, it won’t discharge below 40% or charge above 80% SOC. It also of course may cycle the battery fully many times in an hour or may not if your highway for example, but it cycles it much more often than a pure electric vehicle.

However as range is a huge selling point in a pure EV, I wonder if they are cycling the batteries deeper and charging higher, giving up life span for range.

The design life of the battery pack on the 2010 Prius, is ten years and 250,000 miles, so ours is running on borrowed time, but as I can have it replaced for $1,000 I’m not too worried.

[Checkswrecks]

I've been part of an EV study for the last couple of years and the economics are very real, as long as the depreciation financially works. That means the economics are excellent IF you hold on to the car rather than always need the new model.

If you talk to a Toyota factory person (I need to go to mfg conferences) or even look on Craigslist you will find that both Prius batteries are lasting well over 200,000 miles and there are a number at 300+. That's pretty impressive but the Teslas are WAY past that and the leader in those has more than 500,000 miles!
https://sites.google.com/view/teslamiles

For those writing about batteries with short lives, what kills these things is heat. Or having an earlier tech such as in the early Mitsubishis, Nissan Leafs, and electric SmartCars. Those have generally gone away and a related aspect is that the manufacturers have had to face the truth that nobody will now buy an EV with less than about 200 miles of real range. The better/pricier EVs have better heat management systems built into their batteries which is one reason that their batteries last so much longer.

Forget the high prices people talk about with respect to replacing batteries. Being part of the study, I've learned that unless the factory is paying to replace the battery, people have found a number of ways to buy them for a LOT less than list price. The easiest fastest cheapest has been to simply get a replacement from a junkyard but there are now a number of battery recyclers who take the batteries apart and re-stack the cells. Somebody like AH64 can even get the instructions and buy cells online for the Prius battery and the individual cells are only $20-$40 each.

As for economics, it's not just the ability to use the cheaper energy to pay $13 for a "fill up" that will take them 259 miles. . . .
https://www.comparethemarket.com/car...-car-globally/
and
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billrob.../#2aa86423200d

. . . The EV also avoids the road tax on gasoline, plus no oil changes, and has virtually no engine maintenance. What people generally also miss is that because braking is regenerating power to the battery, the tires, brake pads, and rotors last a LOT longer. That's a big cost savings by itself.

On the environmental side, the folks who complain about total manufacturing costs conveniently don't mention or are not aware that nearly all of the EVs marketed in the US and Europe are designed from the ground up to be recycled.

We tend to hold our vehicles and are currently looking to replace Karen's Subie Forester with a Chevy Bolt. We thought hard about a cheap compact but she wants an SUV and we came to the same thoughts that MotorTrend mentioned when comparing the Bolt to the econocar Kia Soul.

https://www.motortrend.com/cars/chev...-term-verdict/

[lordgeoff]

Originally Posted by robwilk37

bought a first gen volt. costs me $1 per night to recharge from a 110 socket while i sleep. didnt go to a gas station for 7 months. love it, fun to drive and well thought-out.

economics- bought it used just off the lease for $12kusd (some poor bastard ate $30k in dep reciation in two years! and also hot-boxed the majority of the interior "new car" carcinogens, thanks for that) the car is pristine. still cant figure why they dont hold their value. wish id bought one a couple years ago...

A few years back now but a cabbie was driving a Prius with 50k on the odometer. Asked him how long he had had it. Reply was just a week.
He bought it at auction for $13K AUD. The previous burnt the remainder of the $46K price. He was confident he would get close to 1M clicks out of the batteries.
When the cabbies select EVs (without subsidies or penalties for using their ICE) then you know EVs have nearly arrived.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by lordgeoff

When the cabbies select EVs (without subsidies or penalties for using their ICE) then you know EVs have nearly arrived.

Around here, cabbies were early adopters of hybrids. I talked to one who was enthusiastic about it. As far as I know they still love them.

[a64pilot]

The astonishing thing that I cannot come to grips with is how fast the depreciate, there is no logic for that, it has to be the government subsidies somehow.
Average used price for a Leaf is $8600, new they run right at $40,000.
What is going on, how come they depreciate faster than any other vehicle? What fool would buy a new one?
https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-...Extension=true

[B23iL23]

Original Leaf was a poor choice. New one is way better in range, charging and more.


Want low depreciation get a Tesla.



https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/12...e-competitors/

Originally Posted by a64pilot

The astonishing thing that I cannot come to grips with is how fast the depreciate, there is no logic for that, it has to be the government subsidies somehow.
Average used price for a Leaf is $8600, new they run right at $40,000.
What is going on, how come they depreciate faster than any other vehicle? What fool would buy a new one?
https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-...Extension=true

[a64pilot]

Every EV except the Tesla depreciates hugely, the Tesla is I believe a Status symbol, it’s holding its value for no other reason, so it may or may not continue. Probably will for the near future though.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

The astonishing thing that I cannot come to grips with is how fast the depreciate, there is no logic for that, it has to be the government subsidies somehow.
Average used price for a Leaf is $8600, new they run right at $40,000.
What is going on, how come they depreciate faster than any other vehicle? What fool would buy a new one?
https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-...Extension=true

A couple thousand from purchase price to sticker price. Another $7500 tax credit will be taken into account at time of sale. That means every electric car is basically $10k depreciated BEFORE you leave the lot. Using more traditional depreciation here is one example.
Ex. 35000 sticker, - 2500 discount -6500 (20% 1st yr dep.) - 2600 (10% 2nd year dep.) - 2340 (3rd year dep.) = $21k - 7500 fed tax credit = $13.5.

This is how I understand it, plus some skepticism and perception of expensive battery issues. Of course, if they sell in high numbers batteries become cheaper.

[AKA-None]

When people talk about charging and a 50 amp charger every one seems to forget how it works for your boat. A bunch up front then tapering off as the batteries fill. I’m not an expert but it seems that car charging is no different than the same batteries would be if they were on a boat? Or am I missing something?

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by AKA-None

When people talk about charging and a 50 amp charger every one seems to forget how it works for your boat. A bunch up front then tapering off as the batteries fill. I’m not an expert but it seems that car charging is no different than the same batteries would be if they were on a boat? Or am I missing something?

You’re missing that all the modern ones have Lithium not lead acid batteries.
Earlier hybrids like mine have NiMH but much smaller and different use case.

[a64pilot]

Yes they are Lithium, but that 50 amp charger is 50 amps at 220VAC, which is of course huge, it’s the entire electrical system of a larger boat with a 50 amp shore power cord.

Also even Lithium when you really throw a huge charge rate to them, they get hot and heat is bad for them, real bad. It shortens life significantly.
anyone who has flown models has seen it. That may have something to do with some reported early battery deaths, as opposed to others that seem to last nearly forever.
Pure speculation

[lordgeoff]

Originally Posted by lordgeoff

A few years back now but a cabbie was driving a Prius with 50k on the odometer. Asked him how long he had had it. Reply was just a week.
He bought it at auction for $13K AUD. The previous burnt the remainder of the $46K price. He was confident he would get close to 1M clicks out of the batteries.
When the cabbies select EVs (without subsidies or penalties for using their ICE) then you know EVs have nearly arrived.

Hybrids yes are an incremental saving of fuel which appeals to the cabbies and they can run 24/7. You don’t see many cabbies using EVs which would probably be because of range (lack of). The results of the subsidies for EVs in Norway is interesting. When the subsidies stopped so did sales. They were happy to buy a subsidised EV for commuting and kept their diesel SUVs for touring skiing 4WD etc.

[B23iL23]

May 2019 Norway sales EV up 10%. BEV (battery electric) up 60% on the year, PHEV (plug-in hybrids) down 44% on the year.

So sales are still on the up.

https://insideevs.com/news/353698/ma...way-increased/

Originally Posted by lordgeoff

Hybrids yes are an incremental saving of fuel which appeals to the cabbies and they can run 24/7. You don’t see many cabbies using EVs which would probably be because of range (lack of). The results of the subsidies for EVs in Norway is interesting. When the subsidies stopped so did sales. They were happy to buy a subsidised EV for commuting and kept their diesel SUVs for touring skiing 4WD etc.