Electric Car Economics

[jkleins]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

The astonishing thing that I cannot come to grips with is how fast the depreciate, there is no logic for that, it has to be the government subsidies somehow.
Average used price for a Leaf is $8600, new they run right at $40,000.
What is going on, how come they depreciate faster than any other vehicle? What fool would buy a new one?
https://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-...Extension=true

All the electrics except Tesla and the recent Bolt have been built with small batteries that use 100% charge to get the needed range for usual driving. This makes the batteries much less reliable then the Tesla’s which typically get charged to 70-80%. I looked at some of the smaller cars sold in California and you just couldn’t predict how much range you were going to get in the used cars. I think it is that uncertainty that is hurting that market. The new Leaf and some of the newer cars coming out may correct this tendency. As they have bigger batteries and probably are going to be charged more reasonably.

Jim

[a64pilot]

Tesla has always used the Panasonic 18650 cell, which is an excellent cell, but it’s definitely small. I have flashlights that use the 18650 cell, it’s extremely common in use for flashlights etc.
The new Tesla battery is supposedly a bigger 18650 cell, which should bring the number of cells down and make packs cheaper to produce.

Honda way back when with their first hybrid car used NiMH C Cell’s I think, while the Prius uses larger cells manufactured specifically for use in their car.
Tesla has a cult following, and many, many want to tout the high technology of their battery packs etc, but in truth it’s just a whole bunch of flashlight batteries, obviously it works though, so maybe that is the way to go as opposed to specially designed cells. It’s hard to argue against success.

Purpose built specially designed cells and batteries are one reason why one day I think we will talk about Tesla and Deloren together.

[B23iL23]

It's not just the cult following that makes Tesla successful - Most of their "magic sauce" is in the battery management and their drive units - the latter are really efficient and gives them far better range than their competition. Plus they have a huge network of chargers which was a real game changer for the last couple of years.



If you look at the new Jag I-pace or the new Audi EV's they don't match the efficiency of the Teslas. To get similar range they need far bigger batteries.

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Tesla has always used the Panasonic 18650 cell, which is an excellent cell, but it’s definitely small. I have flashlights that use the 18650 cell, it’s extremely common in use for flashlights etc.
The new Tesla battery is supposedly a bigger 18650 cell, which should bring the number of cells down and make packs cheaper to produce.

Honda way back when with their first hybrid car used NiMH C Cell’s I think, while the Prius uses larger cells manufactured specifically for use in their car.
Tesla has a cult following, and many, many want to tout the high technology of their battery packs etc, but in truth it’s just a whole bunch of flashlight batteries, obviously it works though, so maybe that is the way to go as opposed to specially designed cells. It’s hard to argue against success.

Purpose built specially designed cells and batteries are one reason why one day I think we will talk about Tesla and Deloren together.

[Supers0nic]

I wish electric boat technologies were as advanced as electric car. I’d make the jump in a heartbeat.

[FlyingScot]

Originally Posted by Supers0nic

I wish electric boat technologies were as advanced as electric car. I’d make the jump in a heartbeat.

Me too but boat engine use and car are radically different. Production numbers are radically different too.

Not many people speed up, slow down, speed up, slow down like we do in cars.
Hybrids recapture some of the energy during the slowing. And use that power to start the vehicle in motion and/or allow the use of a smaller ICE thus increasing overall efficiency.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Supers0nic

I wish electric boat technologies were as advanced as electric car. I’d make the jump in a heartbeat.

Where would you charge it?
If you have that, then you can have an electric boat if that’s what you want.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Supers0nic

I wish electric boat technologies were as advanced as electric car. I’d make the jump in a heartbeat.

We're getting closer to the point where the daysailor or marina-hopping coastal cruiser could get by with just electric propulsion, and charging at night. The battery innovations driven by EV development will help make this more feasable.

But the energy density (energy per unit of mass), and ease of handling of gas and diesel are still unequalled, making them still the most practical for the long-distance cruiser.

[AKA-None]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

Yes they are Lithium, but that 50 amp charger is 50 amps at 220VAC, which is of course huge, it’s the entire electrical system of a larger boat with a 50 amp shore power cord.

Also even Lithium when you really throw a huge charge rate to them, they get hot and heat is bad for them, real bad. It shortens life significantly.
anyone who has flown models has seen it. That may have something to do with some reported early battery deaths, as opposed to others that seem to last nearly forever.
Pure speculation

So is the suggestion that a plug in car sucks 50amps the whole way and there is no smart charging? Or do they have a large draw to begin with which tapers off?
I’m finding it hard to believe an electric car doesn’t use smart charging.

[B23iL23]

There is smart charging and management. In a car, the most draw is during acceleration - overcoming rolling resistance and getting the car up to speed. Once at that speed, the usage drops but you still have air resistance - that's why EV's are optimized to reduce drag.


In a boat if you have initial resistance but if unlike a car, if you want to stay at 6 knots , then you need to keep the power on full. There is no reaching your speed and then backing off the gas.



Water is a bitch to push through.

Originally Posted by AKA-None

So is the suggestion that a plug in car sucks 50amps the whole way and there is no smart charging? Or do they have a large draw to begin with which tapers off?
I’m finding it hard to believe an electric car doesn’t use smart charging.

[lordgeoff]

Originally Posted by B23iL23

May 2019 Norway sales EV up 10%. BEV (battery electric) up 60% on the year, PHEV (plug-in hybrids) down 44% on the year.

So sales are still on the up.

https://insideevs.com/news/353698/ma...way-increased/

I’ll track down the link to the article I was quoting.
Must have been Sweden or Finland.... one of those Nordic countries.
The experience in all the markets is that subsidies increase sales of EVs (doh) and when the subsidies are withdrawn the sales are impacted (doh!).
As with all subsidies they come at a cost to taxpayer resources and at the expense of alternative taxpayer funded initiatives.
Manufacturers and punters become addicted to the taxpayer teat which is not a bottomless pit or sustainable forever.
EVs Policy is still pretty much trying to bash a square peg into a round hole.
Eventually financial reality prevails leaving plenty of casualties on the battle field...both manufacturer and consumer.
Tesla is sweating on the US subsidies which phase out as sales ceiling volumes are met. China subsidies is another good case study.
Australia is probably the toughest gig for EVs. By refusing to subsidise the automotive industry (which btw was probably correct) Oz now manufacture zero cars. It will be a tough sell by a state or federal government to subsidise car manufacturers in US EU Japan Korea etc etc?

[RaymondR]

Originally Posted by lordgeoff

I’ll track down the link to the article I was quoting.
Must have been Sweden or Finland.... one of those Nordic countries.
The experience in all the markets is that subsidies increase sales of EVs (doh) and when the subsidies are withdrawn the sales are impacted (doh!).
As with all subsidies they come at a cost to taxpayer resources and at the expense of alternative taxpayer funded initiatives.
Manufacturers and punters become addicted to the taxpayer teat which is not a bottomless pit or sustainable forever.
EVs Policy is still pretty much trying to bash a square peg into a round hole.
Eventually financial reality prevails leaving plenty of casualties on the battle field...both manufacturer and consumer.
Tesla is sweating on the US subsidies which phase out as sales ceiling volumes are met. China subsidies is another good case study.
Australia is probably the toughest gig for EVs. By refusing to subsidise the automotive industry (which btw was probably correct) Oz now manufacture zero cars. It will be a tough sell by a state or federal government to subsidise car manufacturers in US EU Japan Korea etc etc?

We learned our lesson with subsidies for local manufacture of IC autos, roughly $1,000 per unit of both domestic and foreign manufacture sold over about four decades.

However they have subsidized solar and wind to the extent that it has rendered a formerly reliable electricity grid unreliable and increased the cost of electricity very substantially.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

We learned our lesson with subsidies for local manufacture of IC autos, roughly $1,000 per unit of both domestic and foreign manufacture sold over about four decades.

However they have subsidized solar and wind to the extent that it has rendered a formerly reliable electricity grid unreliable and increased the cost of electricity very substantially.

The point of subsidies is to kickstart and accelerate the development of something... and it's worked:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominic...il-fuels-2020/

Same for EVs.

[lordgeoff]

Originally Posted by RaymondR

We learned our lesson with subsidies for local manufacture of IC autos, roughly $1,000 per unit of both domestic and foreign manufacture sold over about four decades.

However they have subsidized solar and wind to the extent that it has rendered a formerly reliable electricity grid unreliable and increased the cost of electricity very substantially.

Google Premier Jay Weatherill, Tom Koutsantonis MP, Close and demolish Base Load electricity generation, Basket Case South Australia, Blackouts South Australia

[lordgeoff]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

The point of subsidies is to kickstart and accelerate the developments ent of something... and it's worked:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominic...il-fuels-2020/

Same for EVs.

And this is why Forbes is the go to for Fake News.
So 2020 (in about 6 months “renewables” are going to be cheaper than fossil fuel....
When will “renewables” be able to produce on demand 24/7/365 like fossil fuels has done for many decades.
I don’t think an EV would be a market success if it only ran during daylight hours or only ran on windy days....regardless of price or subsidies?
The $billions tipped into the “renewables” Black Hole is gone forever.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by AKA-None

So is the suggestion that a plug in car sucks 50amps the whole way and there is no smart charging? Or do they have a large draw to begin with which tapers off?
I’m finding it hard to believe an electric car doesn’t use smart charging.

What does “smart charging” mean to you? Along with advertising range, the next thing, and you have heard it here from owners is how fast they can be charged, I can get 200 miles of charge in the time it takes to drink coffee, that is far more than 50 amps.

The Tesla model 3’s average bank is I believe 50 KWH, now I’m sure it’s not usually dead, but it’s not hard to determine how much power it takes to recharge a 50 kWh battery, just a little more than 50 kwh maybe

But just like fuel tanks I guess, some won’t recharge until closer to empty while others will recharge much sooner, average person I’d guess recharges nightly if they have a charger available.

Average house in the US uses less than 30 KWH per day, so it’s not hard at all to see that an EV’s consumption is significant, then figure average household in the US has two cars.