Science & Technology News

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Nothing exact like that but you will see interesting stuff in the next 2 to 4 years . However this winter should be a bit colder than average if the southern winter is any indication ( and it usually is)

You're still being pretty vague. Isn't climate usually considered a trend of at least 30 years, or something like that? How are we going to recognize a reversal of what is now more like a 150-year trend in just the next three years? Even if temperatures trended lower over the next few years it wouldn't mean much, unless average temperatures dropped something radical like a whole degree. Something like that could happen, if, for instance, we had a major volcanic eruption. But that wouldn't really be a climate-reversing event unless it lasted for decades. And I don't think that is the type of climate reversal you are talking about. So it would be helpful if you could be more specific.

[Reefmagnet]

I'm afraid we'd have to be well into the ice age before homogenisation becomes overwhelmed by any cooling trends.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by SailOar

You're still being pretty vague. Isn't climate usually considered a trend of at least 30 years, or something like that? How are we going to recognize a reversal of what is now more like a 150-year trend in just the next three years? Even if temperatures trended lower over the next few years it wouldn't mean much, unless average temperatures dropped something radical like a whole degree. Something like that could happen, if, for instance, we had a major volcanic eruption. But that wouldn't really be a climate-reversing event unless it lasted for decades. And I don't think that is the type of climate reversal you are talking about. So it would be helpful if you could be more specific.

where did you get the ridiculous idea that we have been in a warming phase for 150 years . You really have drank the wrong Kool aid.
The cycle is approx 40 to 60 years long . Look at any temperature data that is not finger on the scales . Nothing that was compiled within the last 6 or so years .
I have posted the ipcc reports in the past that were before all the adjustments that were done to hide the past warm and cold cycles.

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by newhaul

No that is just run of the mill normal solar minimum multi year la Nina. Caused by the deep solar minimum we have been experiencing for the last several years .

Ask NASA and NOAA

Why must you continue to embarrass yourself by talking about things you have not a clue about? Is it an attention getting device? You realize that is a form of trolling and specifically against the 'rules'?

Both Lake and I were making fun of people like you by satirically imitating the apparent 'thought' process that goes into these cockamamie ideas you keep espousing.

Please provide a link to NASA's and NOAA's attribution of wetland losses in coastal Louisiana and Mississippi to 'obesiatic induction'

Or if what you actually meant in your clumsily worded statement is that NOAA and NASA attributed that wetland loss to ENSO cycles, please provide links to that.

Of course, what has and is causing those losses is known, and ENSO has about as much to do with it as GCRs have to do with AGW; essentially nothing.

Since, from past performance, we all know you'll either fail to back your claim, or provide spuriously concocted interpretations of some selected data point you find, let me give you, from memory, in no particular order, the unequivocal and undisputed primary reasons for said losses.


Upstream dams on the Mississippi River capturing sediment.

Levees restricting what sediment load remains from reaching the marshes.

Canals cut indiscriminately into the marsh by marauding oil companies.

Land subsidence caused by hydrocarbon extraction.

Salt water intrusion exacerbated by sea level rise.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by SailOar

I've asked before, but I'll ask again.
Would you give us a specific signal that we are to look for, and by what specific date, that will prove you correct?

Originally Posted by SailOar

You're still being pretty vague. Isn't climate usually considered a trend of at least 30 years, or something like that? How are we going to recognize a reversal of what is now more like a 150-year trend in just the next three years? ...

I’d expect to see any reliably definite/significant change in the climate trend [warming or cooling: similar, accelerated, or decelerated], with the next ‘climate normal’, to be issued in 2031.
Until the end of 2020, the most current and widely used standard reference period, for calculating "climate normals" was the 30-year period 1981-2010.
Recently, the Climate Bulletin changed from the [30 year] 1981-2010, to the 1991-2020 reference period.
Importantly, the change of reference period does not affect the long-term changes, relative to pre-industrial values.
The 1991-2020 reference period is warmer than 1981-2010, for most months, and regions.
I’d expect the next reference period [2001 - 2031] to be even warmer still, and likely at an accelerating rate.

[GordMay]

North Water Polynya, a source of Arctic life, in imminent danger

A keystone structure in Canada's High Arctic is under threat of collapse, and it would take with it a globally unique and fertile piece of the Arctic ecosystem, according to a new report [1], published in the journal Nature Communications.

The North Water Polynya has, for millennia, produced a life-giving cocktail of organic compounds, that ultimately sustain the iconic marine animals found in the Baffin Bay region of the Arctic: narwhal, beluga, walrus and polar bears, which in turn sustain Inuit settlements in Nunavut and Greenland.

But the polynya [an area of open water amid ice] depends on the formation of an ice bridge across the southern Kane Basin, between Ellesmere Island and Greenland.

The ice bridge is a kind of plug, or stopper, that keeps old ice, from the Arctic Ocean, from flowing into Baffin Bay. It's also served at times as a bridge, allowing for the movement of pre-Inuit civilizations, across Ellesmere Island into Greenland.

Sofia Ribeiro, a senior researcher with the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, is the lead author of the expansive new open-source study [1], which concludes that human-caused global warming, and changing sea ice conditions, have made the collapse of the ice bridge a relatively imminent danger.
The ice bridge could fail to form within decades, followed by the collapse of the polynya as we know it.

[1] “Vulnerability of the North Water ecosystem to climate change” ~ by Sofia Ribeiro et al
➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24742-0

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by GordMay

... The 1991-2020 reference period is warmer than 1981-2010, for most months, and regions.
I’d expect the next reference period [2001 - 2031] to be even warmer still, and likely at an accelerating rate.

Meanwhile:
July 2021 was hottest month on record
As extreme heatwaves struck parts of the United States and Europe, the globe averaged 16.73 degrees Celsius (62.07 degrees Fahrenheit) last month, beating out the previous record, set in July 2016, and tied again in 2019 and 2020.
July is the hottest month of the year for the globe, so this is also the hottest month on record.
While the world set a record in July, the United States only tied for its 13th hottest July on record.
Even with a scorching July and a nasty June, this year so far is only the sixth warmest on record. That is mostly because 2021 started cooler than recent years due to a La Nina cooling of the central Pacific, that often reduces the global temperature average.
The last time the globe had a July cooler than the 20th century average was in 1976, which was also the last year the globe was cooler than normal.

More ➥ https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2...ory-says-noaa/

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by newhaul

where did you get the ridiculous idea that we have been in a warming phase for 150 years . You really have drank the wrong Kool aid.
The cycle is approx 40 to 60 years long . Look at any temperature data that is not finger on the scales . Nothing that was compiled within the last 6 or so years .
I have posted the ipcc reports in the past that were before all the adjustments that were done to hide the past warm and cold cycles.

So you've given up on providing evidence for your claims and are back to plain old denierism. <sad>

[SailOar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBikbn5XJhg

On a cosmic time scale, human history is as brief as the blink of an eye. By compressing all 13.8 billion years of time into a 10 minute scale, this video shows just how young we truly are, and just how ancient and vast our universe is. Starting with the big bang and culminating in the appearance of homo sapiens, this experience follows the unfolding of time at 22 million years per second, adhering closely to current scientific understanding.

[SailOar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uD4izuDMUQA

How's it all gonna end? This experience takes us on a journey to the end of time, trillions of years into the future, to discover what the fate of our planet and our universe may ultimately be.

We start in 2019 and travel exponentially through time, witnessing the future of Earth, the death of the sun, the end of all stars, proton decay, zombie galaxies, possible future civilizations, exploding black holes, the effects of dark energy, alternate universes, the final fate of the cosmos - to name a few.

This is a picture of the future as painted by modern science - a picture that will surely evolve over time as we dig for more clues to how our story will unfold. Much of the science is very recent - and new puzzle pieces are still waiting to be found.

To me, this overhead view of time gives a profound perspective - that we are living inside the hot flash of the Big Bang, the perfect moment to soak in the sights and sounds of a universe in its glory days, before it all fades away. Although the end will eventually come, we have a practical infinity of time to play with if we play our cards right. The future may look bleak, but we have enormous potential as a species.

[jimbunyard]

Welll... the 'end of it all' comes annually for about 60 million people globally. Not to mention the billions/trillions of other life forms, though whether they're aware of that ending or not is a more open and philosophically demanding question.

Also leaving out the almost certainly existing (and extinct) 'extraterrestrial' intelligences for whom it's all ended.


Still, entertaining fodder for thought and/or discussion. Hardly think the 'universe' will know that it ended, and it could be argued that even the 'end' is not since, as we all know (hehe) matter can be neither created nor destroyed. 'Really dispersed' isn't the same as 'non-existant'.

Maybe 'changed beyond recognition' rather that 'ended'?

[newhaul]

Good morning everyone .
https://www.princeton.edu/news/2018/...ly-cloud-cycle

That study least into this study

https://engineering.princeton.edu/ne...t-more-thought

And then there is this one

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/...ng-solar-power

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Good morning everyone .
https://www.princeton.edu/news/2018/...ly-cloud-cycle ...

The researchers report in the journal Nature Communications [1] that models tend to factor in too much of the sun’s daily heat, which results in warmer, drier conditions than might actually occur. The researchers found that inaccuracies in accounting for the diurnal, or daily, cloud cycle did not seem to invalidate climate projections, but they did increase the margin of error for a crucial tool scientists use to understand how climate change will affect us...

[1] “Diurnal cloud cycle biases in climate models” ~ by Jun Yin & Amilcare Porporato
Here ➥ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02369-4

... While the mean appears to be reliable, the amplitude and phase of the DCC show marked inconsistencies, inducing overestimation of radiation in most climate models...
... While this model tuning does not seem to invalidate climate projections because of the limited DCC response to global warming, it may potentially increase the uncertainty of climate predictions ...

Peer Review for versions considered at Nature Communications ➥ https://static-content.springer.com/...MOESM2_ESM.pdf

[GordMay]

Blue Origin sues U.S. government after NASA awards lunar lander contract to SpaceX
Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin sued the U.S government, over NASA's decision, to award a $2.9 billion lunar lander contract to Elon Musk's SpaceX.
Blue Origin's lawsuit remains under seal. NASA must file a response to the challenge by Oct. 12.
More ➥ https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/blue...ment-1.6142488

[SailOar]

Collapsing icebergs, surely due to global warming, are a menace as far south as Tennessee.

3 injured after iceberg wall collapses at Titanic Museum Attraction

• Three people were injured at Titanic Museum Attraction in Pigeon Forge after an iceberg wall collapsed.
• “Needless to say, we never would have expected an incident like this to occur as the safety of our guests and team members is always top of mind."
• The attraction is closed at this time.