Science & Technology News

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by newhaul

In my personal estimation it should persist until mid spring to early summer 2022. Possibly longer .

In other words, an open-ended 'prediction'.

Originally Posted by newhaul

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...ean/nino34.png

A link of so-far unproved relevancy.

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

Amazing how easy it is to 'predict' the climate --- Oooh..it's gonna be 'cool' in the spring, followed closely by being 'hot' in the summer....

An admittedly assumptively succinct statement; the assumption being that the person making such a broad 'prediction' was being made aware that an explanation was required.

Originally Posted by newhaul

Condescending attitude . Can you back your assertions like I have wrt the current temps in the Nino regions ?

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

What? Tchou mean this "assertion"?

"...it's gonna be 'cool' in the spring, followed closely by being 'hot' in the summer...."

Wellll --- for those that are aware of the concept of 'seasons', it's a well-known fact. Or we could let Wikipedia explain it to you.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Season#Meteorological

"Meteorologists generally define four seasons in many climatic areas: spring, summer, autumn (fall), and winter. These are determined by the values of their average temperatures on a monthly basis, with each season lasting three months. The three warmest months are by definition summer, the three coldest months are winter, and the intervening gaps are spring and autumn."


But for real condescension and arrogance, you should, perhaps, gaze on your own physiognomy; as everyone else is aware, your near-constant claims to perfect 'predictions' and their 'accuracy' are rivaled only by their distance from reality.

Though your (in this case, [typically] inexact) whining about perceived 'slights' surely comes in a close second...

That you think you've "back[ed] your assertions" in making the claim "In my personal estimation it should persist until mid spring to early summer 2022. Possibly longer." by posting two a-contextual graphs as reasoning for your meaningless 'prediction' only further verifies the amount of credibility that should be extended to it.

Though t'would be very interesting indeed to know the exact method you employed to use two graphs reflecting two and a half months of SST anomalies in separate el Nino 'regions' to predict upcoming winter weather for the continental US. Not to mention "mid spring to early summer 2022".

Originally Posted by newhaul

What a waste of bandwidth
You made a statement that made no sense in response to my comment and linked graphs concerning the la Nina event that is in my opinion will persist into summer.
What does that have to do with your hyperbole or is your posting against me just an attempt ( feeble though it may be ) to attempt to stay relevant in the science discussion of the LA Nina event .

I suggest you study up on the ENSO.

'Just goes to show' that "waste of bandwidth" is in the 'eye of the beholder'.

I happen to think that uselessly inane, unsubstantiated guesses about the climate (leaving aside the constant "it's cooling" drivel) are a public disservice, whilst calling attention to them is a public service.

You do understand that words have meanings, whose individual definitions and usage are generally agreed to by those employing them to make themselves understood conversationally?

Apparently my "statement that made no sense" made enough sense for you to ask me to verify it's validity, which I promptly did. In other words, 'I put my money where my mouth is'.

Time for you to do the same.

Please, for the edification of all concerned in this "scienc[y] discussion", answer the question posed previously;


[What is] "...the exact method you employed to use two graphs reflecting two and a half months of SST anomalies in separate el Nino 'regions' to predict upcoming winter weather for the continental US. Not to mention "mid spring to early summer 2022." "?


I have a reasonably good understanding of the el Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomena. From your postings, it's not apparent to me that you do also.

Much as it appears you don't understand the meaning and usage of the words 'relevancy' and 'hyperbole' or the phrase 'posting against me'. Since we're freely handing our 'advice' here, I suggest you "study up" on the application of those three components in colloquial English vernacular...

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

In other words, an open-ended 'prediction'.



A link of so-far unproved relevancy.



An admittedly assumptively succinct statement; the assumption being that the person making such a broad 'prediction' was being made aware that an explanation was required.







'Just goes to show' that "waste of bandwidth" is in the 'eye of the beholder'.

I happen to think that uselessly inane, unsubstantiated guesses about the climate (leaving aside the constant "it's cooling" drivel) are a public disservice, whilst calling attention to them is a public service.

You do understand that words have meanings, whose individual definitions and usage are generally agreed to by those employing them to make themselves understood conversationally?

Apparently my "statement that made no sense" made enough sense for you to ask me to verify it's validity, which I promptly did. In other words, 'I put my money where my mouth is'.

Time for you to do the same.

Please, for the edification of all concerned in this "scienc[y] discussion", answer the question posed previously;


[What is] "...the exact method you employed to use two graphs reflecting two and a half months of SST anomalies in separate el Nino 'regions' to predict upcoming winter weather for the continental US. Not to mention "mid spring to early summer 2022." "?


I have a reasonably good understanding of the el Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomena. From your postings, it's not apparent to me that you do also.

Much as it appears you don't understand the meaning and usage of the words 'relevancy' and 'hyperbole' or the phrase 'posting against me'. Since we're freely handing our 'advice' here, I suggest you "study up" on the application of those three components in colloquial English vernacular...

Let me know once you actually understand the full measure of the ENSO. and once you do understand how it works there will be no need to expand upon my post concerning the la Nina event. And it's duration .
This link should assist you .

https://www.climate.gov/enso

[jimbunyard]

But I, as I said, do have a reasonably good understanding of the ENSO phenomena.

I want to know, specifically, how you arrived at your 'prediction' using the two graphs you listed as "backup" for said 'prediction'. Remember, Gord's information says that the la Nina conditions will extend through February 2022. I'm sure we all, NASA and NOAA included, are eager to learn how you arrived at a 'prediction' that, due in large part to the fickle, historically short-lived nature of la Nina events, eludes those whose business it is to make such forecasts.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml

Disregarding the fact that my level of understanding bears no relation to your apparent lack of ability to explain your method of establishing the so-broad-as-to-make-it-useless 'prediction', in respect to lack of parameters for either temperature or time.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

But I, as I said, do have a reasonably good understanding of the ENSO phenomena.

I want to know, specifically, how you arrived at your 'prediction' using the two graphs you listed as "backup" for said 'prediction'. Remember, Gord's information says that the la Nina conditions will extend through February 2022. I'm sure we all, NASA and NOAA included, are eager to learn how you arrived at a 'prediction' that, due in large part to the fickle, historically short-lived nature of la Nina events, eludes those whose business it is to make such forecasts.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml

Disregarding the fact that my level of understanding bears no relation to your apparent lack of ability to explain your method of establishing the so-broad-as-to-make-it-useless 'prediction', in respect to lack of parameters for either temperature or time.

You don't understand much about the process then nor have you gone to 5he linked site . Therefore any further engagement with you is a complete waste of my (and everyone that is reading this ) time.

Not my job to teach you the basics.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

But I, as I said, do have a reasonably good understanding of the ENSO phenomena.

I want to know, specifically, how you arrived at your 'prediction' using the two graphs you listed as "backup" for said 'prediction'. Remember, Gord's information says that the la Nina conditions will extend through February 2022. I'm sure we all, NASA and NOAA included, are eager to learn how you arrived at a 'prediction' that, due in large part to the fickle, historically short-lived nature of la Nina events, eludes those whose business it is to make such forecasts.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ensodisc.shtml

Disregarding the fact that my level of understanding bears no relation to your apparent lack of ability to explain your method of establishing the so-broad-as-to-make-it-useless 'prediction', in respect to lack of parameters for either temperature or time.

You don't understand much about the process then nor have you gone to the linked site . Therefore any further engagement with you is a complete waste of my (and everyone that is reading this ) time.

Not my job to teach you the basics.

[bcboomer]

I just read the link and it says that the la Nina effect is expected to be neutral by March to May.
So the question remains, did Newhaul pull his prediction out of a hat or a crystal ball.

[jimbunyard]

Believe there's a more likely place...

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by bcboomer

I just read the link and it says that the la Nina effect is expected to be neutral by March to May.
So the question remains, did Newhaul pull his prediction out of a hat or a crystal ball.

Actual historical averages 2 to 3 years after official end of the solar minimums and the deep cold upwelling off the coast of Chile in Nino 1/2 which is the mid to late spring water in Nino 3/4. Region .
As I said Jim needs to learn more about the ENSO.

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Actual historical averages 2 to 3 years after official end of the solar minimums and the deep cold upwelling off the coast of Chile in Nino 1/2 which is the mid to late spring water in Nino 3/4. Region .
As I said Jim needs to learn more about the ENSO.

But - but - but

Originally Posted by newhaul

actually you should read Valentina's work again the grand minima is not expected to begin in till approx 4 years after the cycle 25 solar maximum in 2025 . If you would like I can send you a copy of her works . Or the works of Dr Willie so in as well .

Post #13, https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ty-221821.html

Again, since 'we're' freely offering advice here, I suggest you do a little work on mnemonics ... or are you refering to some other, convenient 'minimum', perhaps in another solar system? (gotta keep those GCR's in mind; who knows which starshine and hocus-pocus might come in handy to verify curiously ambiguous 'predictions'...)

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

But - but - but



Post #13, https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ty-221821.html

Again, since 'we're' freely offering advice here, I suggest you do a little work on mnemonics ... or are you refering to some other, convenient 'minimum', perhaps in another solar system? (gotta keep those GCR's in mind; who knows which starshine and hocus-pocus might come in handy to verify curiously ambiguous 'predictions'...)

A solar minimum happens in between each solar cycle . Ie: we just ended cycle 24 minimum and are progressing to solar cycle 25 maximum.

A grand minimum is a prolonged period of minimal solar activity below a specific sunspot threshold and will run for more than a complete 11 year +/- y solar cycle .

Why do you continue to waste everyone's time with having to get me to explain Grammer school level solar astrophysics.

Do some reading . GOOGLE SCHOLOR IS YOUR FRIEND . Avail yourself of him .

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by newhaul

A solar minimum happens in between each solar cycle . Ie: we just ended cycle 24 minimum and are progressing to solar cycle 25 maximum.

A grand minimum is a prolonged period of minimal solar activity below a specific sunspot threshold and will run for more than a complete 11 year +/- y solar cycle .

Why do you continue to waste everyone's time with having to get me to explain Grammer school level solar astrophysics.

Do some reading . GOOGLE SCHOLOR IS YOUR FRIEND . Avail yourself of him .

"Waste everyone's time?! --- NASA, NOAA, the CPC and everyone else are still waiting for you to explain how your assumptions and inability to understand basic physical relationships permute into any of your (repetitively wrong) 'predictions'.

So, please, yet again, explain not only how your two graphs persuade you that "In my personal estimation it should persist until mid spring to early summer 2022. Possibly longer ." but also how the near-nonsense statement "Actual historical averages 2 to 3 years after official end of the solar minimums and the deep cold upwelling off the coast of Chile in Nino 1/2 which is the mid to late spring water in Nino 3/4. Region ." have any effect at all on either climate or weather.

"The sun rises in the east, therefore it will rain tomorrow" is not a prediction.

Keep in mind that your girlfriend Valentina has already had to retract (or was it 'modify'?) her 'paper' describing the (negligible) effect the sun's varying output or magnetic field had on either weather or climate.

"Onus probandi incumbit ei qui dicit, non ei qui negat."...to use actual rather than porcine Latin. Remember, my ability to understand, or not, has no bearing whatsoever on the validity of your 'predictions' or the means by which you arrive at them, or your ability (or not) to explain those means.

Also remember, the 'scientific' world is awaiting your epiphanic 'wisdom' with bated breath.

[GordMay]

“ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE UPDATE 2021: KEY TRENDS AND IMPACTS
SUMMARY FOR POLICY-MAKERS” ~ Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme [AMAP]

The Arctic environment continues to change at a rapid pace - with some indicators changing even faster than previously reported by AMAP in 2019.

Key Findings:
1. The physical drivers of Arctic change continue to change rapidly.
2. Extreme events in the Arctic are changing in frequency and intensity.
3. Climate change is having major impacts on Arctic communities.
4. Arctic ecosystems are experiencing rapid, transformational changes.
5. Changes in the Arctic have global consequences.
6. The latest climate models continue to project that the Arctic will warm rapidly over the course of this century.

The report ➥ https://oaarchive.arctic-council.org...=1&isAllowed=y

Or ➥ https://www.amap.no/documents/download/6759/inline


Fact: The Arctic has been warming twice as fast, as the rest of the world. In some seasons, it has warmed three times faster, than the rest of the globe.
Fact: That’s because of “Arctic amplification.” Essentially, white ice in the Arctic reflects heat. When it melts, the dark sea absorbs much more heat, which warms the oceans even more quickly.
My Opinion: The warming, already in the oceans and in the air, is committed, like a freight train in motion. So, no matter what, the Earth will soon [2040s, 2050s, 2060s?] see a summer with less than 1 million square kilometers of sea ice, scattered in tiny bits, across the Arctic.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

"Waste everyone's time?! --- NASA, NOAA, the CPC and everyone else are still waiting for you to explain how your assumptions and inability to understand basic physical relationships permute into any of your (repetitively wrong) 'predictions'.

So, please, yet again, explain not only how your two graphs persuade you that "In my personal estimation it should persist until mid spring to early summer 2022. Possibly longer ." but also how the near-nonsense statement "Actual historical averages 2 to 3 years after official end of the solar minimums and the deep cold upwelling off the coast of Chile in Nino 1/2 which is the mid to late spring water in Nino 3/4. Region ." have any effect at all on either climate or weather.

"The sun rises in the east, therefore it will rain tomorrow" is not a prediction.

Keep in mind that your girlfriend Valentina has already had to retract (or was it 'modify'?) her 'paper' describing the (negligible) effect the sun's varying output or magnetic field had on either weather or climate.

"Onus probandi incumbit ei qui dicit, non ei qui negat."...to use actual rather than porcine Latin. Remember, my ability to understand, or not, has no bearing whatsoever on the validity of your 'predictions' or the means by which you arrive at them, or your ability (or not) to explain those means.

Also remember, the 'scientific' world is awaiting your epiphanic 'wisdom' with bated breath.

I'm not wasting my time anymore on you until you can prove you actually have a clue asto the facts of solar physics and ENSO as well.

[GordMay]

First Images of Earth Taken by the Landsat 9 Satellite Released

NASA has released the first snapshots of Earth, taken with its new highly sensitive satellite, which is designed to capture high-resolution images of the planet.

NASA and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) have been collecting images of our planet, using satellites, since 1972.

The mission's most recent satellite, Landsat 9, launched in September this year, is equipped with two instruments that capture imagery, and together, provide experts with data about crop health, irrigation use, water quality, wildfire severity, deforestation, glacial retreat, and urban expansion.
- the Operational Land Imager 2, or OLI-2, which detects nine different wavelengths of visible, near-infrared, and shortwave-infrared light;
- and the Thermal Infrared Sensor 2, or TIRS-2, which detects two wavelengths of thermal radiation, to measure Earth’s surface temperatures, and its changes.

➥ https://www.usgs.gov/news/first-imag...ience_products

➥ https://www.nasa.gov/specials/landsat/

➥ https://www.usgs.gov/core-science-systems/nli/landsat

[newhaul]

Scuba divers thought it was just a log in a lake. Turns out they discovered a 1,200-year-old canoe


https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/11/05/u...rnd/index.html