Spain and Ebola: Discuss

[hellosailor]

One almost has to ask...considering the expense that a truly effective response (which means globally) would involve, is what we are seeing from all the major powers just posturing? Not intended to contain or cure the outbreak, but intended to keep people calm until there really IS a significant "western" world outbreak, which in turn will get the populations to allow a real major response?

After all, the US really didn't want to enter WW1 until after "those poor innocents" on the Lusitania were torpedoed. The official story was that it was not carrying munitions, the documented truth is that they were openly listed on the cargo manifests and all cargo was loaded by hand, by longshoremen, who know very well what was being loaded. And a German warning that munitions ships to the UK would be sunk had been openly given, well in advance.

And then there's Pearl Harbor, where experts still disagree but a significant number think that the attack was being intentionally allowed, to inflame US anti-war sentiment. The only mistake being that no one really thought an attack could be THAT effective.

So...maybe the reason we are seeing an almost casual response, is that the powers that be think this is the best way to motivate a REAL response?

Real response meaning BSL4 reaction teams, real quarantines 30 days long, massive funding for an antivirus program, and quite possibly an armed response and deforestation in the source areas. Where populations can be expected to forcibly resist efforts like quarantines, and prolonged armed conflicts for control of governments have been pretty common already.

Basically...Go to 'war' against ebola, while the public doesn't appreciate the need for expensive commitments? Or, allow outbreaks, until the public IS motivated?

CDC and USAMRIID know how to respond, as do other agencies overseas. But so far, they have withheld the full response that they are competent and capable of making--if someone authorizes it.

Heck, look at how long it took before anyone was actually willing to deal with Typhoid Mary.

[Delancey]

Frontier said in a statement that the aircraft “received a thorough cleaning per our normal procedures,” at Dallas-Fort Worth and that it was then cleaned last night in Cleveland.

Very reassuring. Weren't airplane cleaning crews striking at La Guardia Airport last week complaining they didn't have training or equipment to clean up Ebola, and that they were often understaffed and sometimes given as little as 5 minutes to do a job that takes 45 minutes?

More importantly, anybody have plans to fly to see family for the Thanksgiving Holiday?

[SaltyMonkey]

I have no holiday travel plans. Back in mid august when this news broke, I did my early seasonal travel because I had an inkling this would be bad.*

The CDC and WHO have NO CREDIBILITY at this point. Neither does the US Government. Point fingers stating oh, don't panic etc, but NOTHING recent history (in their statements or in the real world) gives ANY confidence these aren't BS lies or pure incompetence.

https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-says-miss...044302209.html

*****. missed the boatshow

[dannc]

Originally Posted by BandB

...

With one patient the hospital in Dallas was overwhelmed. So far the cost in Dallas has already exceeded a million dollars.

The big fallacy/assumption that has been made is that Ebola will not get to the US, and even if it does, it can be handled. The problem with that "thinking" is that the health care system will quickly be overwhelmed with even a small group of patients. I know that at least two of my area hospitals have set up facilities to handle Ebola cases but that can't be very many beds. Maybe 20-40 would be my guess. Having 24-70 care givers per patient is possible with one patient but no way is that level of care possible with 20 patients.

What has been reported in Dallas on how the patient was handled is shocking. I can see the initial failure to diagnose. People make mistakes and we have been told over and over that Ebola will not get here or the chances of it arriving are small... But after Ebola arrived I am shocked health care professionals performed this way. It has been drilled into me over and over and over do not touch blood or body fluids and this was pre Ebola.

Originally Posted by BandB

...
The one thing shown is that each case and each person exposed has to be taken very seriously and assumptions as to safety or thinking someone is low risk are just something we can't make. The term "emergency state" comes to mind and we're not in one yet. However, we really need to treat each case with that mindset. That includes extraordinarily strong measures like quarantine which we think of as compromising rights. But the threat does require such actions.

It is complete incompetence that people are not quarantined when flying in from the affected countries. Having a quarantine of people returning from the affected counties only minimizes the odds of Ebola spreading but that is better than what we have now. The US has dealt with infectious illnesses before and those laws are certainly still on the books. Spitting in public is against the law in places and this law gets brought up from time to time as an example of a useless law. The reason that law exists was to prevent the spread of TB.

Typhoid Mary was arrested and put in prison twice. Unfortunately she was released where she sickened and killed more people before being locked away until she died. Typhoid Mary traveled down the river denial all her life as are others today.

Hopefully the second nurse did not spread anything on her plane flight.

Later,
Dan

[crazyoldboatguy]

FDR, former Assistant Sec'y of the Navy (and full on USN devotee), knowing full well that Japan was going to strike the US fleet @ Pearl Harbor, allows it to happen so as to get into the war.

There is so much wrong with that supposition that it boggles the mind.


Poor dissemination of information coupled with the understandable fear folks have and the general mistrust of our gov't seems to have an effect even on the usually restrained adults on this forum.

Protocol wasn't followed in Dallas. Was the CDC called in? Were their recommendations followed?

Hospitals as proper places to treat Ebola victims - uh, no. It is common knowledge that hospitals continue to have significant problems with maintaining sanitary conditions - amazing but true. This is one reason why folks stays at hospitals are limited as much as possible to avoid continuous exposure to other infectious diseases - MRSA, etc. If the disease becomes entrenched, separate treatment centers, outside of, but perhaps near to, hospitals may be necessary, according to some. Hospitals must be maintained for other medical conditions which they can handle fairly well. Tight restrictions with keen attention to the protocols are more easily maintained at a small off site location - maybe some of those inflatable medical tents used by the military.

Meanwhile, I am preparing for the apocalypse - been watching doomsday preppers non-stop, stockpiling 50 cal ammo, laying in supplies and an air purifier (just in case - airborne is a reality, dude). How I get all that crap on a 28' sailboat is beyond me - maybe will use some flex-seal on my old Winnebago camper and tow it behind my old Pearson. That'll work.

[Delancey]

"However, according to Flighttracker, the plane was used for five additional flights on Tuesday before it was removed from service. Those flights include a return flight to Cleveland, Cleveland to Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International Airport (FLL), FLL to Cleveland, Cleveland to Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL), and ATL to Cleveland."

Um so, aren't they saying the virus can survive for six hours outside of the body? The way they turn around airplanes you have to figure that another 264 people minimum at risk besides the 132 already indicated. Plus the cleaning crews?

Airline Stocks Tumbling After News Hospital Worker With Ebola Flew On Commercial Flight « CBS DC

[Sailor_Hutch]

Originally Posted by dannc

This morning I read that the nurse got Ebola after touching her face with a gloved hand that had been in contact with the patient. I would hope that while she was near the patient she had on face shields and she touched her face when taking off personal protective clothing. The article I read, pretty sure it was the Wall Street Journal, did not mention those details, which are kinda critical.

It does show how easy it is for Ebola to spread. A touch to her face was enough to give herself Ebola.

A few years ago the Myth Busters TV program did a show on how easy it was to spread a cold/flu between people. They put a chemical on the "sick" guy and then had people gather and have a dinner party. The chemical would show up under black light and after the "party" was over they lit up the table, glasses, silver ware and the people. The chemical was all of the place even though it had started at one person.

I was reading another report last night that said that for every four known Ebola victims there are six unreported cases.

Later,
Dan

Touching the face, rubbing the eyes, etc. Those are all ingrained semi-automatic behaviours that are very hard to defeat. I know, I forced myself to stop doing it a number of years back. I had to do it in steps, first managing to always use the back of my hand, and then over many months finally stopping the (what would you call it - a tick?) completely. Haven't had colds or flu since, which was something I used to have a couple times per year. Been about five years since I've had either.

[BandB]

Originally Posted by crazyoldboatguy

Hospitals as proper places to treat Ebola victims - uh, no. It is common knowledge that hospitals continue to have significant problems with maintaining sanitary conditions - amazing but true. This is one reason why folks stays at hospitals are limited as much as possible to avoid continuous exposure to other infectious diseases - MRSA, etc. If the disease becomes entrenched, separate treatment centers, outside of, but perhaps near to, hospitals may be necessary, according to some. Hospitals must be maintained for other medical conditions which they can handle fairly well. Tight restrictions with keen attention to the protocols are more easily maintained at a small off site location - maybe some of those inflatable medical tents used by the military.

Dallas Presbyterian only has three isolation rooms set up. They'll exceed that within the next week. That shows a bit how short sighted we have been on Ebola. Where do the next patients go? Ebola facilities as you describe?

Now proper precaution would not have allowed the latest nurse to have flown out of town.

Oh, latest news, the second nurse is going to be transferred to Emory, in Atlanta. That's where Dr. Brantly was treated. I don't know if they plan to use his antibodies.

Where are we going to put all the ebola patients? How are we going to keep those exposed from exposing others? Well, so far no one will admit their plan to date hasn't worked. They're still treating it like it's a disease just a very few people will get.

[Sailor_Hutch]

Originally Posted by DeepFrz

Some Ebola experts worry virus may spread more easily than assumed - LA Times

What is a concern is what I've read about the type of virus it is - of a particular class that mutates frequently. I only think I know what I've read, but the scary thing is that many generations of infection lend a hand to mutation. Some scientist point to a possible mutation that takes the virus airborne. These reports have been played down, to avoid panic, and that is reasonable. But, it's overall a very alarming situation, whether we've reached panic status or not.

Some scientist now claim that the black plague was not caused by rats at all - and that it was airborne.

[hellosailor]

"Touching the face, rubbing the eyes, etc. Those are all ingrained semi-automatic behaviours that are very hard to defeat. "
Oh, they are actually very simple to defeat. In the BSL4 moonsuits, you put your hand up to your face and CLONK! you hit your facemask. And there's no way to get under or around it, since it is part of a sealed helmet and suit. BSL4 protocols and equipment are all fairly stringently based on "if you make a mistake you are dead" and the entire system is set up so that mistakes cannot be made.
Ebola workers have been shown donning and doffing their garments solo. That's a violation. And they doff them without a full disinfectant wash. Not some guy with a bug sprayer full of chlorox, but they are supposed to be hit with a thorough shower from multiple heads, a real soaking. And that rinsewater doesn't just go down the drain, or into the middle of the courtyard either.
When none of the players follow their own rulebooks, you have to at least wonder, why?

Chernobyl and Fukishimaya come to mind as recent events, where folks used moonsuits and full decontamination procedures. They prove it can be done, and done properly.

crazy-
Have you read "At Dawn We Slept" ? It is about 1000 pages in abridged form, condensed from something like 38 volumes of the definitive study of the Pearl Harbor events. Allowing the attack is not at all inconceivable, if you consider the questions that even the Japanese had before the attack. Yamamoto was astounded by his success--until he heard that the declaration of war had not been given. Yes, everyone including the Japanese fleet attack commander had been expecting a declaration of war, at which point the US fleet would have been put on a different alert status. There were also other "inconceivable" events that day. Among them, the Japanese were so worried about the American carriers, and so unprepared to get their aircraft back substantially intact, that they did not attack the USN fuel depot. If they had sent one wing to attack the fuel depot, or sent back a second attack on the depot, it would have taken the USN a full year to rebuild, and during that first year there would have effectively been no USN presence in the Pacific, possibly allowing the Japanese to get such a firm footing that they would have won the war. Inconceivable errors are normal in wars. (The book is very hard reading, very slow, but worth reading for anyone interested in history. Should be at most libraries for free, too.)

Heck, wouldn't you call it inconceivable that a virus with a 50-90% kill rate has been ignored in Africa for the last 40+ years? Ignored?? Inconceivable!

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by SaltyMonkey

And it gets worse:

Ebola Patient Traveled By Air Day Before Symptoms Surfaced « CBS Dallas / Fort Worth

Chaos theory anyone?

I predict that no one on that plane will become infected from the health care worker. There, I said it. Check back in 3 weeks.

http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/1...la-in-sneezes/

Now, we return you to your regularly scheduled panic.

[sneuman]

Originally Posted by Sailor_Hutch

What is a concern is what I've read about the type of virus it is - of a particular class that mutates frequently. I only think I know what I've read, but the scary thing is that many generations of infection lend a hand to mutation. Some scientist point to a possible mutation that takes the virus airborne. These reports have been played down, to avoid panic, and that is reasonable. But, it's overall a very alarming situation, whether we've reached panic status or not.

Some scientist now claim that the black plague was not caused by rats at all - and that it was airborne.

Here we go again! "No virus that causes disease in humans has ever been known to mutate to change its mode of transmission. This means it is highly unlikely that Ebola has mutated to become airborne." Read this to get a better understanding of how Ebola spreads | The Great Debate

[Delancey]

Glad you're so confident no one on the flight will get sick. Let's hope so.

"Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters that the nurse had a temperature of 99.5 degrees before she got on the plane on Monday."

Dallas Ebola Nurse 'Should Not Have Traveled,' CDC Head Says - NBC News

Granted, human temperature varies and 99.5 degrees is on the very low end of a fever/ high end of normal. But then why is the guy now saying she shouldn't have flown? I'm sure the people who sat next to her on the flight are comforted to know that -

“She did not vomit. She was not bleeding,” Frieden said. “So the level of risk of people around her should be extremely low.”

Did she wipe her eye and then touch the arm rest? Likely, most people touch all kinds of stuff when they're on a flight for a couple hours. Including the shared arm rests and themselves.

Skymall anyone?

[BandB]

Originally Posted by Delancey

Glad you're so confident no one on the flight will get sick. Let's hope so.

"Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters that the nurse had a temperature of 99.5 degrees before she got on the plane on Monday."

Dallas Ebola Nurse 'Should Not Have Traveled,' CDC Head Says - NBC News

Granted, human temperature varies and 99.5 degrees is on the very low end of a fever/ high end of normal. But then why is the guy now saying she shouldn't have flown? I'm sure the people who sat next to her on the flight are comforted to know that -

“She did not vomit. She was not bleeding,” Frieden said. “So the level of risk of people around her should be extremely low.”

Did she wipe her eye and then touch the arm rest? Likely, most people touch all kinds of stuff when they're on a flight for a couple hours. Including the shared arm rests and themselves.

Skymall anyone?

Saying she shouldn't have flown is so futile. Why wasn't she quarantined and kept from flying? 99.5 degrees most people sweat a little. How many of you have flown long distances on today's planes and never touched your neighbor? Or at least shared the arm rest? What about your drink can or water bottle. Cold container, your sweat, hand to flight attendant.

Talking odds with lives is disturbing. Unlikely they said for any of the health care workers. 2 out of 78 so far? Oh that's good odds, less that 3% unless you were one of the two or one they have sense passed it to. Unlikely on the plane? Does that mean 1%? Then that would be two or three people. Or 1/2 of 1% and it's just the persons who used the restroom after her. Which is worse, the toilet or the handle to the water faucet? Or the door handle? Unlikely is prevarication in my mind. The likelihood was always that someone else would get it from the original patient. Specifically you, perhaps not highly likely but then it's like playing Russian Roulette. Honestly, it feels a bit like that. Pull the trigger. You probably won't get the bullet.

And why did 78 have contact in the hospital? Why did the five exposed kids go to school until sent home? Why were the people on the plane exposed? Did the first nurse's dog run outside before she went to the hospital? Defecate on other lawns that perhaps kids play on?

Someone used the military analogy. That's what it calls for. Treat it as if the person is radioactive. Surely some of our people have been trained for germ warfare. Use some of that training.

They keep saying contact is the only way of spreading. Then why do they keep letting so many make contact with so many others. Quarantine is an extreme measure but absolutely called for. And did anyone hear the CDC's argument against travel restrictions? As he rambled nonsensically , he seemed to say that would make the disease worse in West Africa. So spreading it to more people throughout the world is better? I don't get it. They asked the Liberian if he'd been exposed before he could board. Really think he was going to tell the truth? Would you have? Doubt many would have.

I suspect the second nurse flew home to Ohio to regroup from what she'd just been through at the hospital. Little did she know what was ahead.

[BandB]

Latest from the Dallas Morning News:

"Health care workers treating Thomas Eric Duncan in a hospital isolation unit didn’t wear protective hazardous-material suits for two days until tests confirmed the Liberian man had Ebola — a delay that potentially exposed perhaps dozens of hospital workers to the virus, according to medical records.

The 3-day window of Sept. 28-30 is now being targeted by investigators for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as the key time during which health care workers may have been exposed to the deadly virus by Duncan, who died Oct. 8 from the disease.

Duncan was suspected of having Ebola when he was admitted to a hospital isolation unit Sept. 28, and he developed projectile vomiting and explosive diarrhea later that day, according to medical records his family turned over to The Associated Press.

But workers at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital Dallas did not abandon their gowns and scrubs for hazmat suits until tests came back positive for Ebola about 2 p.m. on Sept. 30, according to details of the records released by AP."

Let's see....first you send him back home. Don't check for Ebola even though told he was in Liberia and he has all the symptoms.

Second, you decide not to take preventive measures when you now are diagnosing it as Ebola until you get the lab results back.

Anyone think Dallas Presbyterian Hospital will avoid bankruptcy?