Why Climate Change Won't Matter in 20 Years

[Reefmagnet]

Now for something completely different.

I was watching the news tonight and a story came on about some studies done by this guy..
http://www.uts.edu.au/staff/david.booth?page=2
...in regard to climate change effects in fishes of the great barrier reef. He has been conducting studies for many years on the impacts of climate change, pollution and other human impacts on the great barrier reef.

One of the fishes he has studied for many years is the yellow damsel fish. After much research he has found that whilst sudden changes in the aquatic environment do initially result in reduced numbers of individuals, it seems that Darwin's theory kicks in and the fish best able to survive the change are the ones that produce more offspring which in turn leads to more adapted offspring until finally populations return to normal levels of fish that are able to cope with the environment. Makes sense, I guess. It was interesting to note that one of his climate change variables included raising the water temperature above 2 degrees Celsius of the warmest seas the fish extend to in the natural environment. I guess one implication is that critters capable if migrating rapidly with climate change won't necessarily do so if their habitat niche doesn't migrate with them (I.e. Coral in this case) at the same rate.

Here's a 2014 story on his research
http://www.theguardian.com/environme...on-damsel-fish

In that article, I found these paragraphs particularly poignant...

He says research such as his damsel study is a reminder that while much reef science and media focus is on issues such as climate change and the potential devastation of the reef by global-scale threats, protecting individual locations is also critical.

“Most of the organisms on the reef spend most of their lives within a very small area,” Booth said. “A lot of the time we look at the big picture and we overlook the small scale at which these organisms are actually living.”

He said it was critical that people did not get overwhelmed by the huge scale of climate change. A lot could be done to protect habitats at a local level by managing threats such as overfishing and pollution.

“These little fish remind us that we have to keep on chipping away at protecting the small areas and creatures as well as addressing the big issues.”

I'm not sure this latest study has been published as yet (a 2012 paper titled "A Marine Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Report Card for Australia" may be related). The study has been running for, I believe, over a decade and has including natural environment and test tank observations. It seems to have been a very comprehensive study.

I've quoted doctor Ian Malcolm in the past but it does seem that "life will find a way".

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[transmitterdan]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Ah, Julian Simon’s “Ultimate Resource” - human beings and mankind’s vision, determination, and ability to rethink and tackle problems with intelligence, enterprise, and creativity; all resources which are not finite.

He, and other optimists, may be mostly correct.

But, for theis"ultimate resource" to be successfully marshaled, we have to recognize that we face a problem, and direct our energy and intelligence to creatively solve it.

That is correct. This "problem" has been framed not that differently than some famous historical "problems". The basic theory is that green house gasses will upset the delicate balance of the planet's feedback loops. At some "tipping" point in time (which was predicted to have happened by now more than once) there will be nothing that can be done to reverse the trends. The trends will start moving ever faster in one direction and within a very short period the planet will no longer support life as we know it. Civilization crumbles, higher forms of plant and animal life become extinct and it was all our fault. Do I have it about right?

All I am saying is that when a problem is framed like that and many people believe it then proposed solutions that we would never even consider become reasonable and even necessary. Throughout history such problem framing and the resulting solutions (when implemented) have nearly always been ultimately judged to be crimes against either nature or humanity. And when people cried out against these proposed solutions they were not just ridiculed. They were deemed to be part of the problem to be solved.

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by transmitterdan

That is correct. This "problem" has been framed not that differently than some famous historical "problems". The basic theory is that green house gasses will upset the delicate balance of the planet's feedback loops. At some "tipping" point in time (which was predicted to have happened by now more than once) there will be nothing that can be done to reverse the trends. The trends will start moving ever faster in one direction and within a very short period the planet will no longer support life as we know it. Civilization crumbles, higher forms of plant and animal life become extinct and it was all our fault. Do I have it about right?

All I am saying is that when a problem is framed like that and many people believe it then proposed solutions that we would never even consider become reasonable and even necessary. Throughout history such problem framing and the resulting solutions (when implemented) have nearly always been ultimately judged to be crimes against either nature or humanity. And when people cried out against these proposed solutions they were not just ridiculed. They were deemed to be part of the problem to be solved.

Not to butt in on the conversation, but I made a point the other day that the concept of "runaway greenhouse" appears to have all but vanished from the vernacular in recent times. Probably as a result of recalcitrant satellite data and chilly troposphere.

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[Exile]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

Not to butt in on the conversation, but I made a point the other day that the concept of "runaway greenhouse" appears to have all but vanished from the vernacular in recent times. Probably as a result of recalcitrant satellite data and chilly troposphere.

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And hence the real reason the use of "climate change" -- adopted from Frank Lutz over 25 years ago -- is now part of the modern vernacular as opposed to "global warming." Not only does it allow its adherents to ignore or explain away the sat data, the expansion of polar sea ice in recent years, and the overall reduction in extreme weather events, but it attributes any changes by humans to the environment, along with fossil fuels in general, as bad.

[fryewe]

Originally Posted by Exile

...it attributes any changes by humans to the environment, along with fossil fuels in general, as bad.

And it attributes any changes of the environment to be due to humans, and any changes to the environment as bad.

Even though not one person (or agency) can define and defend what an "optimal" environment would look like, nor why a static "optimal" environment would be good, nor what measures would be effective in establishing a static "optimal" environment.

I'm with Kenomac and Clint..."improvise, adapt, overcome"...that's what makes us strong. Just like damselfish.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

The second article:

Yet, throughout the Anglophone world there is a dangerous political polarisation around climate change. In one particularly disturbing US poll, attitudes to climate change were a better predictor of respondents’ political orientation than any other issue- including gun control, abortion and capital punishment. Denial of climate change is not just an opinion, it has become a dominant mark of people’s political identity.

Ah yes, I was waiting for the connection to be made btwn. CC and identity politics. Another all too convenient chapter in the deified "book" that self-proclaimed "Progessives" religiously adhere to. Maybe even better than the equally close relationship btwn. CC & terrorism, right?? And of course we all know how closely those Luddite conservative white males all line up together on gun control, abortion & capital punishment. But stereotyping makes trying to make sense of the world so much simpler, no?

It's at least refreshing to see that your stance has been accompanied by a keen desire to seek out more information, even if it's only that which supports your position.

Hmmm . . . it was only two posts ago that I wrote:

"While I cannot and would not deny the existence of a body of scientific evidence which supports the theory of harmful MMGW, . . . .

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

I cannot disagree that the green/AGW/sustainability "hill" has had a liberal/leftist flag planted on it, which turns off right-wing and many centrist voters. As the author notes... this is very much a problem. It's one of the reasons I chose that article.

Avoiding the unhelpful and often inaccurate labels, the issue turns off many rationally-minded voters because the science remains unsettled, the most obvious evidence for which is that the alarmist predictions have failed to materialize.

In NO WAY does it diminish what science is telling us, though. Maybe the right-wing could face the problem head-on, push the lefties away from it, and tell us how they would approach the issue, instead of fanning it away?

What??

You don't get to deny reality just 'cos some lefties hurt your feelings.

You are assuming that people who hold skeptical or denialist positions do so on account of emotion. I suspect that "feelings" as opposed to rationality drives much of the social activist thinking surrounding CC and other "progessive" issues.

-cough-cc conspiracy-cough-
Lemme stop you there. The scientific finding of AGW, and the advocacy around the issue, are separable. You can hate the advocacy, while still working with the scientific advice.

Couldn't agree more, but you, Jack & others might want to ask yourselves why you are unwilling to work with the well-established scientific data which contradicts the findings supporting the establishment AGW position.

btw... sustainability IS a greater moral good. How could it be otherwise, when you have increasing demands being placed on a finite resource? If you stocked your boat with food to last a week, do you eat it all in the first two days?

I can't possibly explain it better than transmitterdan did in his recent post.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Exile

I can't possibly explain it better than transmitterdan did in his recent post.

What about my post #2204 and story? I came up with that one at 6am.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

The resources and wealth are not finite, but good luck trying to explain that concept to a socialist.

But here, I'll try.

Story:

* * *

There.... How did I do at explaining? :

Great! Especially for 6am. Except I can add a sequel to the story, based on another true story.

A friend of mine, now in his 80's, grew up in upstate NY under rather modest circumstances. When he was young, the family started gathering up a bunch of nearby raspberries and other berries growing on their property, and then canning & storing them in their basement. They continued this for years, making jam out of the fruit based on a "family" recipe. Soon their stores of canned fruit greatly exceeded the family's consumption, along with those of their neighbors & friends. Fast forward several decades: my friend's parents have died. Somehow word got out and Smuckers or some big corp. wants to buy out the now overflowing & still well-preserved stores of jam, along with the family recipe. Suddenly my friend -- now retired after spending his entire life working on a factory floor -- is worth millions. He fulfills his life-long passion for spending his retirement riding motorcycles all over the world, buying a bunch of bikes & a big motorhome, living happily ever after.

Under socialism, would the product of all the family's hard work & ingenuity over the years merely been confiscated or highly taxed (same thing) for the sake of the "common good." With a bunch of product reserved for those in charge of the confiscation & redistribution, of course. So much for any remaining individual incentive to make (or improve the processs of making) jam, with the inevitable shortages the result.

How's the sequel?

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Exile

Great! Especially for 6am. Except I can add a sequel to the story, based on another true story.

How's the sequel?

Excellent!

Of course you figured out that Pammymac is my wife and the raspberry crop flourished for the next 10 years (at no cost to us), and now the present owners of our previous house have most likely been enjoying the raspberries for over ten years.

I also have a similar story about our beekeeping years. We haven't had bees for over ten years now but still have several boxes of jars of Topsfield Fair award winning honey in our pantry.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

Excellent!

Of course you figured out that Pammymac is my wife and the raspberry crop flourished for the next 10 years (at no cost to us), and now the present owners of our previous house have most likely been enjoying the raspberries for over ten years.

I also have a similar story about our beekeeping years. We haven't had bees for over ten years now but still have several boxes of jars of Topsfield Fair award winning honey in our pantry.

Yes, figured that Pammymac = Mrs. Mac. You seem like a rather enterprising couple!

You'd best hang onto your boxes of honey. Every so often it seems I hear dire warnings about the imminent demise of the bee population. There could be fortunes made in honey one of these days, and you & the missus could be living happily ever after on your 80' Oyster with full-time crew.

[fryewe]

Originally Posted by Exile

Yes, figured that Pammymac = Mrs. Mac. You seem like a rather enterprising couple!

You'd best hang onto your boxes of honey. Every so often it seems I hear dire warnings about the imminent demise of the bee population. There could be fortunes made in honey one of these days, and you & the missus could be living happily ever after on your 80' Oyster with full-time crew.

a

Bees are here to stay.

A friend who is an entrepreneur and has his hands in many small enterprises (but still manages to be a vigorous community volunteer) is the local bee whisperer, and when a swarming hive shows up in undesired places or a hive builds a new home in undesired places, he gets a call. Hours later, he has collected the swarm or the hive, cleaned out the honey, and has a new hive in his fruit orchards.

He also rents out his hives for pollination of orchards and gardens. A few years ago one of his hives was hired to pollinate a watermelon field that was planted on newly cleared ground (one of the best uses for new ground while the roots are rotting and the rough ground is being eroded level by nature). The honey made by that hive during the season was described as the best honey ever offered at the county craft fair that year. His samples brought a crowd that bought every jar on the first day of the fair.

We're lucky to live in a place where all this is neither needlessly licensed nor regulated, and in a place where bureaucratic nannies have, so far, failed to establish a foothold, so that these types of activities can take place.

[newhaul]

Here's a new one that seems to be more than just a minor volcanic event could just cause a small blip on the global cooling register
Zhupanovsky *|*Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) *|*53.589°N, 159.15°E *|*Elevation 2899 m

Based on visual observations, KVERT reported that on 21 January explosions at Zhupanovsky generated ash plumes that rose to an altitude of 8 km (26,200 ft) a.s.l. and drifted 36 km W. A thermal anomaly was detected in satellite images. The Aviation Color Code remained at Orange (the second highest on a four-color scale).

[newhaul]

Then there is this caldera in the tropics( they say those have more climate' effects.)
Tengger Caldera *|*Eastern Java (Indonesia) *|*7.942°S, 112.95°E *|*Elevation 2329 m

PVMBG reported that during 14-22 January brownish gray plumes from Tengger Caldera's Bromo cone rose as high as 1.8 km above the crater. Seismicity fluctuated; the number of explosion signals increased and some shallow and deep volcanic earthquakes were recorded. The Alert Level remained at 3 (on a scale of 1-4); residents and visitors were reminded not to approach the crater within a radius of 2.5 km.

Based on information from PVMBG and satellite images, the Darwin VAAC reported that during 23 and 25-26 January ash plumes rose to altitudes of 3.6-3.9 km (12,000-13,000 ft) a.s.l. and drifted ENE, E, and SE.

[Kenomac]

Looking forward to temps all week here in New England in the 40's, 50's and up to 60 degrees F. (4-15 degrees C)

Quite the contrast to last winter when we were buried under six feet of snow and endless subzero temperatures.