World population is growing 20 million people every 3 months

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Where did you get this idea? .

I get that from the average US family consumes 2,000 gl of gasoline per year.
1 gl of gasoline is equivalent to 33 KWH of electrical power.
To replace the gasoline you need 66,000 KWH of electrical power.
Current electrical usage per US family is 900 KWH per month, the electric car is all else is equal is another 5,500 KWH per month.
My belief is there is not enough electrical power generation to increase every US families consumption by close to 600%.


All those numbers are debatable of course, just got them off of a quick Google, but I do know that by a large margin our biggest energy usage is the gasoline for our cars.


On edit, another quick look show average fuel consumption per family to be anywhere between 1 and 2 thousand gallons per year, a large spread, so who knows?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by K_V_B

But we will need to replace it. If we electrify all our transportation we will need to find energy somewhere. If we replace all our cars with electric cars we will probably need to triple our electricity production. At the moment renewable energy can't even keep up with growth in electricity demand.

See the preceding post. It will not require tripling capacity at all. Don't make the mistake that someone above did, of extrapolating the overall situation out of people's household energy consumption. That leaves out industry, which is a huge consumer of electrical power. In fact, cars hardly amount to 10% to 15% on average of the total energy consumption in most developed countries. With trucks and buses its more, but still.

Originally Posted by K_V_B

And how are we going to power those large container ships? The only solution I see there is nuclear.

But instead of investing in Nuclear the world is going back to coal. Even Germany. Especially Germany...

The Germans have suffered a bit of temporary political insanity The French must be shaking their heads, while enjoying their superb all-nuclear electrical system, enjoying the lowest rates in Europe.


Yes, I agree. Nuclear is by no means the only way to quickly expand capacity, but it is a great one -- possibly the best one of all. On top of its other virtues, it has the highest reliability of any type of generation, so it is superbly complementary to solar and wind, to cover the base loads. But I think that the world will come around to this -- even Germany. Political pressure about carbon emissions will help.

Originally Posted by K_V_B

Just as we laugh about the worries of previous generations. At the end of the 19th century people around the world were worried that the horse manure problem in the cities was unsolvable...

Ha, ha! Ain't that the truth

[ctl411]

2000 times even 20 mpg is 40000 miles. Even 1000 gallons would be over the average milage I think.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I get that from the average US family consumes 2,000 gl of gasoline per year.
1 gl of gasoline is equivalent to 33 KWH of electrical power.
To replace the gasoline you need 66,000 KWH of electrical power.
Current electrical usage per US family is 900 KWH per month, the electric car is all else is equal is another 5,500 KWH per month.
My belief is there is not enough electrical power generation to increase every US families consumption by close to 600%.


All those numbers are debatable of course, just got them off of a quick Google, but I do know that by a large margin our biggest energy usage is the gasoline for our cars.


On edit, another quick look show average fuel consumption per family to be anywhere between 1 and 2 thousand gallons per year, a large spread, so who knows?

Few errors in this approach:

1. 1 kWH of energy in gasoline does not equal 1kWH of energy in electricity. Gasoline engines average about only 20% thermal efficiency while electrical motors are over 90%. Total system efficiency for electric must also account for transmission, charging system, etc., but still it takes at least 3kWH of gasoline energy to equal 1kWH of electrical energy, for electricity.

When we talk about electrical generating capacity, we are talking about OUTPUT, not the energy in the fuel burned to produce it. So you can't compare that number, with the amount of energy in a gallon of gas. You have to compare with power put to the road, which is only about 20% or less of the energy in the gas you burned to create that power.


Incidentally, the newer gas-fired power plants are around 50% efficient, and even more if co-generation is going on. They are so efficient that it takes less fuel to generate electrical power, distribute it, and charge your electric car, than you would have to burn in an internal combustion engine. So even we generate power by burning gas, we are still saving fossil fuels by using electric cars.


2. You are using only household electrical power consumption. But our generating capacity covers also industry, electrical transport systems, military, etc., etc., etc. So power needed for cars is a much smaller percentage of the total, than you are getting.

[Phil11]

I saw a program a couple of years ago that predicted the world population would level out at 11 billion, from the 7 billion at the moment, due to the effect of family size falling as people become more affluent. The growth would mainly occur in Asia and Africa. Technology should increase food supply and clean up the atmosphere. No problem, relax.

[boatman61]

Yeah.. no worries at all.. between Monsanto, McDonalads/Taco Bell and Big Pharma the population will crash in the next 50yrs from Cancers, Heart Disease, Diabetes, Legal drug addictions and overdose's from Oxycontin and others..
Its all sorted..

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by ctl411

2000 times even 20 mpg is 40000 miles. Even 1000 gallons would be over the average milage I think.

That is per family, how many vehicles in average family?
Then again I can find a source that says it 1,000 gls, which one is right? I have no idea.
I know industry and other users are huge, however I think the energy amount in the gasoline we burn is more than we think.
In truth we could easily cut our gasoline consumption in half, we just don't want to obviously, so I guess it's sort of a mute point anyway.
Then how efficient are electric automobiles? Way more than the average SUV I would imagine, an SUV can get range with a big gas tank, that is way more expensive with an electric automobile.

I almost bought a Leaf when they were first coming out, and would have if Nissan hadn't botched the launch, now I guess I'm glad I didn't cause I bet you can't give one away now.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Analogy: So your saying if you have a car and most of the time you just drive around town never exceeding 25mph but occasionally, you NEED to drive a few hundred miles away and NEED to go 55mph...get a car with a top speed of 25mph? (you are assuming you can borrow your neighbor's car that will do 110mph for free)

That's equivalent to what you are saying.

There are solutions beyond simple storage but none are free. Demand based pricing is the obvious solution but even that requires hundreds of million of meters and other grid components be swapped out at huge costs.

Originally Posted by Kenomac

It might be best for you to quit while you're behind.

Time to go to bed now.... and TURN OFF THE LIGHTS.


"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt." Abraham Lincoln."

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Were you talking to yourself?

Last evening, you seemed determined to add up 2+2=5-6

Despite your continued insistance that 5-6 o'clock is peak electrical usage time and that the other 23 hours of the day don't somehow matter, I assure you that during 9 months of the year, our solar arrays generate power during your magic 5-6 o'clock peak usage period. It's only during daylight savings time Dec., Jan. and Feb. when sun goes down prior to 5:00pm here in New England.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Yeah.. no worries at all.. between Monsanto, McDonalads/Taco Bell and Big Pharma the population will crash in the next 50yrs from Cancers, Heart Disease, Diabetes, Legal drug addictions and overdose's from Oxycontin and others..
Its all sorted..

True. One way or another humans will come back into balance with the natural systems that sustain our species. In fact the latest estimates of life expectancy in the USA appears to indicate an unexpected decline. I believe the US is the first major developed nation to reverse the trend of increasing life expectancy, but it may be a sign of things to come:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db267.pdf

[sailnow2011]

The interesting thing is population is starting to level out. As many born each day, as are dying each day.
Either way with current tech the world can support 150billion people. More tech is coming out that will allow more people to populate the earth.

[Kenomac]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

True. One way or another humans will come back into balance with the natural systems that sustain our species. In fact the latest estimates of life expectancy in the USA appears to indicate an unexpected decline. I believe the US is the first major developed nation to reverse the trend of increasing life expectancy, but it may be a sign of things to come:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db267.pdf

Mike,

The decline is directly related to the increase in obesity. Americans are too fat.

There's plenty to eat... and you guys are worried about us starving?. Even the folks living here who don't work are somehow getting fat whilst on the dole.

Just give them a free food card and tell them there's no need to find a job... who would've thought this would create an obesity problem? I'm shocked.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Kenomac

The decline is directly related to the increase in obesity. Americans are too fat.

There's plenty to eat... and you guys are worried about us starving. Even the folks living here who don't work are somehow getting fat whilst on the dole.

Yes, that seems to be the explanation I’ve read. This is exactly the issue I pointed out by saying developed societies’ contribution to global problems is over-consumption of resources. The obesity epidemic is a brutally ironic illustration of this fact.

Over population is an issue of under developed parts of the world. As all the data shows, population growth rates have been declining for decades now (mostly b/c of the growth in wealth of these areas of the world). Predictions show a light at the end of this tunnel, whereas we see no decline in the growth rates of the intensity of resource-use by those of us in the developed world.

Overpopulation is a serious global problem, but it is one that is trending in the right direction. The other side of this coin shows no such improvement. So all this fretting about overpopulation is somewhat wasted. The real problem is the intensity of resource use in the developed (and developing) countries.

[DumnMad]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

I get that from the average US family consumes 2,000 gl of gasoline per year.
1 gl of gasoline is equivalent to 33 KWH of electrical power.
To replace the gasoline you need 66,000 KWH of electrical power.
Current electrical usage per US family is 900 KWH per month, the electric car is all else is equal is another 5,500 KWH per month.
My belief is there is not enough electrical power generation to increase every US families consumption by close to 600%.

All those numbers are debatable of course, just got them off of a quick Google, but I do know that by a large margin our biggest energy usage is the gasoline for our cars.

On edit, another quick look show average fuel consumption per family to be anywhere between 1 and 2 thousand gallons per year, a large spread, so who knows?

Who'd have thought all the youth with carbon burning potential would be gathering together online instead of around 6 cyclinder cars. Instead of driving to see friends we phone or email & facebook. Instead of looking for stuff we google. Live in high-rise cities and walk or rail to work etc etc. Swimming pools instead of driving half a day to get to the beach. Moving into smaller houses or high density living is another way the doomsday problems are dissolving.

[hoppy]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

That’s OK Ken. I’m a mere mortal. From all your posts on this stuff you appear to be made of fairy dust. But to be clear, when we’re self-contained on the boat we don’t spend anything. How would we?

Internet shopping

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by sailnow2011

The interesting thing is population is starting to level out. As many born each day, as are dying each day.
Either way with current tech the world can support 150billion people. More tech is coming out that will allow more people to populate the earth.

Consider this if you will..

Our world consists of a finite amount of 'stuff'...

Much of that 'stuff' is rocks and magma and similar which is all a bit indigestable...

A percentage of that 'stuff' is used to make plants and fish and people and furry animals...

Produce another billion people at , lets say, 70kg a head....

That's 70 billion kg less fish and little furry animals in the global biomass...

Soylent Green here we come!!!!

..

The world is already running out of mackerel to convert into fishmeal to feed to the farmed salmon at a ratio 0f 4:1