World population is growing 20 million people every 3 months

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by StuM

1. Population growth is not exponential, the rate is decreasing. It is displaying all the attributes of logistic growth.

2. A major factor in population growth now is declining death rates, not the traditional bogeyman of high birth rates.

So are you right or the first poster? From what I read demographics are definately changing in western countries but population growth is increasing in places like india. Population may not be increasing fast enough to serve our economic desires but im not convinced its going backwards.
Nature says we will breed, I have no reason to believe we will prove nature wrong.

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[UAEguy]

A good population clock for those interested World Population Clock: 7.5 Billion People (2017) - Worldometers

[siamese]

Originally Posted by UAEguy

An interesting stat to consider. The population of Australia being added to the world every 100 days. This planet is screwed.

I'd be okay with that if it was Canadians. Or maybe Japanese. But, Australians?!?!

[Suijin]

Originally Posted by Cormorant

Should we start a pool? What will cause the loss of at least 30% of the world's population first?

-- Famine
-- Disease
-- Warfare
-- Meteorite
-- Aliens
-- Zombies

I feel grateful to live in these relatively untroubled times. I hope to enjoy this earth and its oceans for a good long time. I hope my kids get to, also. And their kids. . . .

You need to add "All of the above". Alien life form arriving on a meteorite causing the zombie apocalypse along with associated famine, disease, and warfare.

The population of the US has doubled since I was born. Amazing.

And we think of China's population control efforts as oppressive...

[Sea Dreaming]

Originally Posted by daletournier

So are you right or the first poster? From what I read demographics are definately changing in western countries but population growth is increasing in places like india. Population may not be increasing fast enough to serve our economic desires but im not convinced its going backwards.
Nature says we will breed, I have no reason to believe we will prove nature wrong.

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StuM is scary smart. Mensa material in all probability. I'm not saying he can't be wrong, but I am sure he is telling you facts based on knowledge not speculation.

[UAEguy]

A Logarithmic scale of population growth by region.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by Sea Dreaming

StuM is scary smart. Mensa material in all probability. I'm not saying he can't be wrong, but I am sure he is telling you facts based on knowledge not speculation.

Im sure Stu is scary academic and I'm sure his knowledge comes from what he reads and expereinces......the same as it does for the the rest of us! And im sure he hasn't counted all the people, just like I haven't recently, he has an opinion based on the internet sites he looks at. Sort of like climate change, some very smart people say its happening and some very smart people say its not.

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[thinwater]

No social safety net (Social Security and the like) means the only security in old age is lots of children (hoping some survive and still like you), so you have a big family. No other choice, since banking savings and getting a pension are not a part of that reality. The upsides we see to family planning don't make sense outside of a society that can provide stability and at least some support. That requires a stable government and stable economy.

Not sayin' right or wrong, I'm just sayin' that I can see the motivation to have a lot of kids--not wanting to starve, alone.

Obviously, this is a global problem. Work out for yourselves how it might be addressed.

[UAEguy]

Originally Posted by Sea Dreaming

StuM is scary smart. Mensa material in all probability. I'm not saying he can't be wrong, but I am sure he is telling you facts based on knowledge not speculation.

Then he knows how to read a logarithmic scale and knows it represents exponential curves. As such, growth rate may be slowing by some small amount in some locations, but it remains exponential nonetheless.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by daletournier

So are you right or the first poster? From what I read demographics are definately changing in western countries but population growth is increasing in places like india. Population may not be increasing fast enough to serve our economic desires but im not convinced its going backwards.
Nature says we will breed, I have no reason to believe we will prove nature wrong.

Sent from my vivo Y35 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

We are both right. I don't dispute that currently population is increasing by 20 million in 3 months. But that is NOT an indication of exponential growth and current statistics and projections by those who study such things (such as the UN) show that population is heading towards stablisation within the next 50-100 years.

The World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision | Latest Major Publications - United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by StuM

1. Population growth is not exponential, the rate is decreasing. It is displaying all the attributes of logistic growth.

2. A major factor in population growth now is declining death rates, not the traditional bogeyman of high birth rates.

What is "logistic" growth?

ETA:
Looked it up...

When resources are limited, populations exhibit logistic growth. In logistic growth, population expansion decreases as resources become scarce, leveling off when the carrying capacity of the environment is reached, resulting in an S-shaped curve.

[UAEguy]

Originally Posted by StuM

We are both right. I don't dispute that currently population is increasing by 20 million in 3 months. But that is NOT an indication of exponential growth and current statistics and projections by those who study such things (such as the UN) show that population is heading towards stablisation within the next 50-100 years.
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Take a close look at their own "UN" data and graphic I posted. A straight line on a logarithmic scale IS exponential. The date now is 2017, not 2033 or 2050. Currently, the world population growth curve is a straight line on a logarithmic plot...ie, exponential.

[UAEguy]

I find it funny that the same people (UN) saying the world will end due to GW are also the same people telling us that the poor will stop breeding due to economic pressure.

Probably a bunch of MENSA crazy smart people!

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by StuM

We are both right. I don't dispute that currently population is increasing by 20 million in 3 months. But that is NOT an indication of exponential growth and current statistics and projections by those who study such things (such as the UN) show that population is heading towards stablisation within the next 50-100 years.

The World Population Prospects: 2015 Revision | Latest Major Publications - United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs

Heading for stabilization in the next 50-100 years...facts? Speculation?Projections?guess's?....once again I'll back nature until it fails to support that growth, which your kinda saying? but that isnt happening yet.....resources are depleting ie. oil, yet we are still buying more cars. Everytime im in a cab in Asia one of the first questions the driver asks me is "how many kids do you have" thats what most of the world focuses on family.

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[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by SailOar

What is "logistic" growth?

ETA:
Looked it up...'
When resources are limited, populations exhibit logistic growth. In logistic growth, population expansion decreases as resources become scarce, leveling off when the carrying capacity of the environment is reached, resulting in an S-shaped curve.'

In logistic growth they keep on banging out the babies.... its just that they don't live very long.... think South Sudan, Somalia, etc.

Japan is a special case... as they say.... 1st World, 3rd World, Japan, .... and Argentina.