World population is growing 20 million people every 3 months

[ctl411]

Originally Posted by UAEguy

An interesting note Pete regarding devolving of the human race. While traveling the world, my wife and I noted the likelihood that populations like Indonesians, Cambodians and Vietnamese would best survive an apocalyptic event because 1st World populations would collapse if you simply pull the plug on electricity, ready made food and clean water.

The US would be worst hit in my opinion. Take away electricity for a week and people would start killing each other for canned food.

Not sure it would take a week, well at least city folks.
I think I heard once if trucks stop delivery in NYC food runs out in a day???
I agree though a emp in any of the 1st world countries​ would be catastrophic. My tractor would run, as well as my boat but not much else...

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by newhaul

( have a p38 on my keychain)

You just told on yourself, most won't know what a P38 is.

I found a set of dog tags that had one on it that I hadn't seen in 20 years at least.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by UAEguy

How Accurate Are Population Projections?

The accuracy of current population projections cannot be directly evaluated, but the success of previous global and country-level projections can be examined. Twelve times since the 1950s, the UN has projected the world population size for the year 2000. All but one of these projections has been off by less than 4 percent.

Understanding and Using Population Projections

My case and point,
Let's just assume the average error has been 3%, it is thus pure statistical speculation to make statements about growth rates that are within the margin of error for your underlying data.

This is the bit I question. As someone that has spent alot if time sailing Indonesia, Thailand, borneo, Philippines and Papau no one can convince me that the population stats of asia are anything but a calculated guess. Millions don't go to hospitals to have babies. They seriously would not know what their population size is.

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[daletournier]

I really doubt these dudes are recorded anywhere thar resembles officialdom.

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[UAEguy]

AND, how did they even calculate the relative error they ultimately believe they have in the reports?

Like you, I've been to places I'm sure nobody from the UN has ever visited much less someone with a census.

To suggest that anybody has a collaborated and authenticated baseline number for population to base a statistical analysis showing growth rates with precision of +/-0.05% accuracy as shown by StuM is pure fiction.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by AiniA

The UN's population projections come with varying predictions based on different fertility scenarios. You can take your pick about which one is most likely to happen. Over the past few decades the fertility rate decline has typically been underestimated.

I mentioned this and that graph earlier, they are guessing!!!

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[newhaul]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

You just told on yourself, most won't know what a P38 is.

I found a set of dog tags that had one on it that I hadn't seen in 20 years at least.

Bet it got a bunch of hits on google today to
Been using them since I was a kid.

[Jason Flare]

I didn't google it but I'll bet it's one of those little can openers.

[boatman61]

All one needs is a knife..

[StuM]

Originally Posted by pete33458

The other BIG, BIG influence (I would argue one nearly as big as population growth) is longevity. Life expectancy has almost doubled in the past century. That means that each human contributes twice as many man-years of consumption as we did about 100 years ago. It's the same as doubling the population.

Population growth and increased longevity are not two separate things. Increased longevity is a major component of population growth not in addition to it.

If longevity has not increased, populations would not have grown the way did.

[a64pilot]

Originally Posted by Jason Flare

I didn't google it but I'll bet it's one of those little can openers.

It is and way back in the day you got one in every box of C rations, along with a little pack of cigarettes.
Neither of which you will see in an MRE bag.
It's bigger brother is the P-51, a larger can opener but just like the P-38. The P-38 and of course the P-51 were both very famous WWII fighters, has to be a connection, that can't be coincidence.

There are all kinds of things I pick up on that I hear that tells me most likely somebody spent some time in the Military, funny cause I never noticed until after I got out.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

It is and way back in the day you got one in every box of C rations, along with a little pack of cigarettes.
Neither of which you will see in an MRE bag.
It's bigger brother is the P-51, a larger can opener but just like the P-38. The P-38 and of course the P-51 were both very famous WWII fighters, has to be a connection, that can't be coincidence.

There are all kinds of things I pick up on that I hear that tells me most likely somebody spent some time in the Military, funny cause I never noticed until after I got out.

The origional nickname of p38 as as due to the fact that the "can opener individual. " took 38 turns of the.wrist to open the standardized diameter of the.c rats cans.

[Jason Flare]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

It is and way back in the day you got one in every box of C rations, along with a little pack of cigarettes.
Neither of which you will see in an MRE bag.
It's bigger brother is the P-51, a larger can opener but just like the P-38. The P-38 and of course the P-51 were both very famous WWII fighters, has to be a connection, that can't be coincidence.

There are all kinds of things I pick up on that I hear that tells me most likely somebody spent some time in the Military, funny cause I never noticed until after I got out.

I think I got one with a spam can of 7.62 x 54R.

[AiniA]

Originally Posted by daletournier

I mentioned this and that graph earlier, they are guessing!!!

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If they are guessing why are you prepared to accept the current population of the earth? Perhaps the world has 6 billion or 9 billion now? I think the UN and other estimates are probably pretty good, likely within 5% of the real numbers, perhaps more like 1%. Note that in the graph I provided once you agree on a current population the projections are just calculations based on different TFRs.

After I retired I volunteered in the highlands of Lesotho for several months. While I was there they were getting ready to conduct their first census. It is not a rich, or even working class country but they thought it important enough to have a count and seemed to be quite serious about it. They were giving teachers training about how to do the count. I would think it worked out pretty well since everyone was taking the process very seriously. I am also reminded of an episode of the West Wing where there was considerable discussion about the merits of a census (count) vs a sampling to determine population.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by a64pilot

You just told on yourself, most won't know what a P38 is.

I found a set of dog tags that had one on it that I hadn't seen in 20 years at least.

The FRED was much more useful.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Field_..._Eating_Device