World population is growing 20 million people every 3 months

[K_V_B]

Originally Posted by daletournier

This is the bit I question. As someone that has spent alot if time sailing Indonesia, Thailand, borneo, Philippines and Papau no one can convince me that the population stats of asia are anything but a calculated guess. Millions don't go to hospitals to have babies. They seriously would not know what their population size is.

These countries aren't backward. Thousands of babies get born outside of hospitals in developed countries as well. That does not mean their births are not registered. Im most countries being registered at birth is the first step in actually being able to function in said country.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by K_V_B

Well, the original remark was that "trains are serial hybrids". In truth the majority of trains aren't...

Actually most train engines are serial hybrids the diesel engine runs a generator that provides the power to run the electric motors that actually drive the train

[K_V_B]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Actually most train engines are serial hybrids the diesel engine runs a generator that provides the power to run the electric motors that actually drive the train

You're assuming most locomotives are diesel electric. I'm not sure that is true. Definitely not the case in Europe. Diesel hydraulics are quite common here, but electric locomotives dominate.

[a64pilot]

Yes when I said trains, I should have said Diesel / electric . I bet they are rare but there may even be some steam Locomotives around too, and many pure electrics. I though Diesel mechanicals and hydraulic were few and long gone though, mostly switching engines even then?

[UAEguy]

Originally Posted by AiniA

My last contribution to this thread since it is pointless trying to convince people whose minds are made up in spite of evidence to the contrary. Lets ignore the population 'experts', what the hell do they know.

To me, facts are facts and ignorance is ignorance.

Just so you don't lose faith in good debate, after starting this thread, I have changed my position to one of optimistic pessimism. I do believe the growth rate is declining in most all 1st World Countries.

However, I do not believe it is going to spread fast enough to merging economies to outpace the coming international economic correction that I believe is coming.

China’s corporate debt problem is widely reported. At some point, companies will require deleveraging. Between 2009 to 2015, credit grew by 20% on average each year. The ratio of non-bank private credit-to-GDP rose from 150% to 200%. These non-bank credits come from China's famous "shadow banking" system, much of which is an instrument created by provincial governments to fund pet projects and other job creating endeavors and force investors into financial products that are lending to these dud companies.

According to the IMF, China's credit distortions are similar to those that led to painful deleveraging in Spain and Japan.

Beyond the economics, I am left wanting to understand why fertility is dropping so fast in the 1st world. Considering where India is economically and socially, I don't believe their trajectory will change much. China needs

This graphic from 2006 seem to be right on target for current population 10 years after projection with 7.5B/2017

Your statement "Facts are Facts" kills me because I have rarely come across facts when government agencies are involved in collecting data.

"ignorance is ignorance"...in an effort to be kind, I wont touch that one.

[DumnMad]

Originally Posted by AiniA

People are not animals who breed within the limits of their environments, except perhaps at Stage 1 of demographic transition - and there are no countries in the world still at that stage. It is silly to suggest otherwise. Unfortunately, and to our harm, we live in a time of alternative facts and rampant anti-intellectualism. To me, facts are facts and ignorance is ignorance.

Graphs are really easy to understand for some, but many people just have no idea how to read them and jump to all sorts of conclusions.

I remember how Economics I, with 3 simple graphs that sumed up the years work, was one of the high failure rate subjects.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by UAEguy

The problem remains...nobody seems to question the accuracy of the data and veracity of the conclusions relative to the statistical margins. If your data has a margin of error greater than your entire result, it is speculation. Most engineers deal with this every day. If this was presented at a DARPA conference, the first question asked would be "What is your data set margin of error and confidence level?" That answer better justify the significant figures in your graph.

Then, the following question would be how do you know?

I haven't dug into it but I guarantee they have margins of error and similar statistical analysis built in. Do some research on it if you don't trust the numbers but to say it's just a guess suggests you don't understand statistical analysis...which seems to be the biggest issue in this discussion. If you don't understand how the statistics work, it seems very daunting when you simply look at the total population (which you seem to think is just a wild guess).

In reality, there is cause for concern but the trends are very hopeful with population leveling off and likely to go negative in the next few decades.

[UAEguy]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

If you don't understand how the statistics work, it seems very daunting when you simply look at the total population (which you seem to think is just a wild guess).
.

Are you suggesting I don't understand statistics?

I'm certainly not saying anything is a wild guess, but rather if the margin of error is greater than the results in ANY calculation leaves the conclusions of that analysis questionable.

Based on your limitless contribution to so many conversation it seems you know more than most of us, maybe you can enlighten me about statistical method when using data with unknown margin of error besides suggest "do more research"??

[DumnMad]

Originally Posted by UAEguy

Are you suggesting I don't understand statistics?

Who's going to tell him ?

[Adelie]

Originally Posted by DumnMad

Who's going to tell him ?

This thread is off topic but has remained civil so the mods haven't shut it down.

[UAEguy]

Originally Posted by DumnMad

Who's going to tell him ?

Please educate me, show me the error of my ways. I know nothing and assume way too much so anything will help.

I'm specifically interested in knowing how to perform an analysis in which the error in the data is greater than the result and have it considered to be fact by the masses so that I too can work for the UN.

[K_V_B]

Originally Posted by UAEguy

I'm specifically interested in knowing how to perform an analysis in which the error in the data is greater than the result and have it considered to be fact by the masses so that I too can work for the UN.

The mistake you are making here is that you assume that if the underlying data has a certain inaccuracy, that any other measure or conclusion you derive from that data necessarily will be less accurate.

That is where your lack of knowledge regarding statistics shows. Because this assumption is wrong.

Achieving good results from bad data, is basic applied statistics. Something you need to be able to do in about any job that involves data. Not just at UN. In fact, if you are a good statistician you are probably not look at working for the UN. You would work a (well paid) job at an insurance company or a bank...

On of the first things I learned during my studies is how you measure an angle with an accuracy of 0.1", using an Wild T2, an instrument that is only accurate to 1". That can be done. It just requires a bit of patience, but it was actually trivial. (Just measure the angle 10 times, and average your result... Most theodolites can actually do this automatically for you now.)

You can do things like that with all data.

The people doing the number crunching and projection on the worlds population data are very well aware that the data they work with has errors. That it has both stochastic and systematic errors. And they know how to deal with it. These are smart people.

If you have only one census, and the error of that census is 10%, you do indeed not have good data to draw a conclusion from.
But you have censuses from 100 countries, each with an error of 10%, and what you do is you just add them together. If the errors are stochastic, than you now know the population of those 100 countries together with an accuracy of about 0.1%.

An see, now you know something...

And now you want to answer a question like "Is population growth in this country increasing or decreasing". You can answer that question with a high level of confidence even if you only have a set of inaccurate censuses for a country. You do a regression analysis, look what model, what hypothesis fits the data best.

So yes, the projections those population scientists make are credible, based on sound reasoning. And there is broad agreement that the phase of rapid population growth is coming to an end. We are already seeing that.

[SV THIRD DAY]

Originally Posted by K_V_B

So yes, the projections those population scientists make are credible.

Tell that to the Cultists of the Population Bomb.....

[SV THIRD DAY]

Originally Posted by UAEguy

Please educate me, show me the error of my ways. I know nothing and assume way too much so anything will help.

I'm specifically interested in knowing how to perform an analysis in which the error in the data is greater than the result and have it considered to be fact by the masses so that I too can work for the UN.

Oh that's easy....
You join the Population Bomb Cult. There is a Two for one special going, you can join the MMGWC and PBC for the price of one.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by UAEguy

Are you suggesting I don't understand statistics?

I'm certainly not saying anything is a wild guess, but rather if the margin of error is greater than the results in ANY calculation leaves the conclusions of that analysis questionable.

Based on your limitless contribution to so many conversation it seems you know more than most of us, maybe you can enlighten me about statistical method when using data with unknown margin of error besides suggest "do more research"??

This is fairly basic sampling and projection. It's not a new science.

I'm forced to agree with AiniA...to put it another way: those convinced against their will are of the same opinion still.