World population is growing 20 million people every 3 months

[Cheechako]

The chart and rate of increase is so steep now you cant really show it. No countries will do anything about it because. It is predicted that by 2050 fresh water will be a major crisis.
- bodies are needed for wars and protection of the realm.
- war is more prevalent when population becomes too dense.
- the higher the population, the cheaper the labor.


Parts of India and Bangledesh already show what the future beholds...

[AiniA]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Yes.

I think by now all major demographic predictions indicate that world population will peak within some period of time between 30 and 100 years from now, and decline after that.

To get world population still growing in 2050, you have to assume that Africa will still have extremely high birth rates. Africa is starting to develop and urbanize just like the rest of the world, so I really seriously doubt this scenario. I think peak population will be less than 9 billion, and we will reach it before 2050.

China became a developed country in an incredibly short period of time -- like 10 or 15 years. I don't think Africa has the same conditions for a similar explosive leap forward, but could Africa do it in say double the time that China took? Heck yes it can, and there are already some signs that it may be starting. If Africa is in 2030 or 2035 where China is today, we will have already passed peak population. I think this is far more likely, than other scenarios, personally.

China is contributing to demographic transition in Africa in a significant way - and not because they wish to do so. China is starting to feel the impact of a declining, and ever more costly workforce. The answer is to outsource a lot of their low-end manufacturing to places where there is a lot of cheap labour available. I have spent some time in Lesotho and it now has a number of large Chinese (and Taiwanese) textile factories. The country works for Chinese interests because Lesotho is politically stable, has low cost labour (and a tradition of textile making in homes) and has decent infrastructure - the factories are very close to the South African border. Most of the workers are women and people are moving from farming areas to the towns near the factories. As is the case elsewhere, empower women and they have fewer kids. As a result, Lesotho has a fairly low and declining TFR. The problems in Africa are in the countries that have never been stable like DR Congo, Mali, Niger, Sudan, etc., but most of these countries do not have large populations to start with.

[UAEguy]

Originally Posted by StuM

Yes, and there are no straight lines in your graph in Post #21.

Ergo, none of those curves are exponential.

The curves are draw to fit a projection through an unknown data set and I assure you there are numerous straight lines that will better represent the data from past to present.

But hey, you're the MENSA guy in PNG, what would I know?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by AiniA

China is contributing to demographic transition in Africa in a significant way - and not because they wish to do so. China is starting to feel the impact of a declining, and ever more costly workforce. The answer is to outsource a lot of their low-end manufacturing to places where there is a lot of cheap labour available. I have spent some time in Lesotho and it now has a number of large Chinese (and Taiwanese) textile factories. The country works for Chinese interests because Lesotho is politically stable, has low cost labour (and a tradition of textile making in homes) and has decent infrastructure - the factories are very close to the South African border. Most of the workers are women and people are moving from farming areas to the towns near the factories. As is the case elsewhere, empower women and they have fewer kids. As a result, Lesotho has a fairly low and declining TFR. The problems in Africa are in the countries that have never been stable like DR Congo, Mali, Niger, Sudan, etc., but most of these countries do not have large populations to start with.

Indeed! China is reshaping the world in so many different ways. Also with massive investments in Africa. China is the big story of the 21st century.

[UAEguy]

Originally Posted by Cheechako

The chart and rate of increase is so steep now you cant really show it. .

Spend a little time in Sudan and you'll realize that there isn't any economic pressure on earth short of a bullet that will stop humans from breeding and nobody from the UN is walking around taking a population census to draw curves on pretty power points.

[KJB]

Me thinks you all think too much.

Aren't you glad someone didn't think about trimming the population when you got around to being born?

This planet can handle a lot more than is on it right now. If the Governments allowed proper farming and healthy thinking ... there really would not be a problem. Our (USA) government has way too many regulations that are destructive to food production. I used to live in the Central Valley of California. That area was said to feed the world at one time. Why it doesn't now is because of governmental overkill with regulations. There are many such stories.

I could go on, but...

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by valhalla360

Sorry but even in the boom times before 2007, the European birth rates were low and continuing to go down.

It's a fundamental change in wanting or not wanting large families. With or without good economic times, birth rates have and are going down.

It's really an intellectual change as opposed to a simply producing more kids when there is more resources. Animals produce as many offspring as they can. Modern humans have chosen to produce fewer.

I don't Google my info.. I work by observation of life around me.. birth rates in the UK started declining about the time Maggie broke the back of the Unions and the erosion of Social Benefits began.. people stopped being paid to have kids, dental, optical and other previously free services were cut off.. free university education was ended.. children became uneconomical apart from the privileged classes.
Most in my generation for example stopped at 1 child as costs rose alarmingly.. house's that cost £3500 when I was 20 were 100,000 before I was 30 and today fetch 350,000+ and that's not in London where a 3 bed semi will set you back close on a million.
Then came the Minimum Wage which instead of raising 1/2 a million people to a living wage brought 10 times that many at least down to a subsistence wage.. this forced many families into the wife having to get a job to keep the roof over their heads..
Sorry.. just putting out the blue collar case.. well aware that many here are speaking from the white collar pulpit.. but your the minority who may sometimes notice the majority if you have to detour through a council housing estate..

[UAEguy]

Originally Posted by KJB

This planet can handle a lot more than is on it right now. If the Governments allowed proper farming and healthy thinking ... there really would not be a problem. :

If you haven't yet, spend some time in Indonesia and India. It will change your view point.

Or, it might not since you think the Central Valley is a utopia of farming.

[UAEguy]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Sorry.. just putting out the blue collar case.. well aware that many here are speaking from the white collar pulpit.. but your the minority who may sometimes notice the majority if you have to detour through a council housing estate..

[Jason Flare]

One of my favorite videos:

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pwom49awRKg

[boatman61]

[Group9]

Part of the reason for the out of control population growth, and this is going to sound cruel, is our modern propensity to make sure that people who are incapable of taking care of themselves or their families have everything they need to keep producing more kids they can't feed, house or clothe.

Noble, to be sure, but somewhat suicidal.

[UAEguy]

Originally Posted by Group9

Part of the reason for the out of control population growth, and this is going to sound cruel, is our modern propensity to make sure that people who are incapable of taking care of themselves or their families have everything they need to keep producing more kids they can't feed, house or clothe.

Noble, to be sure, but somewhat suicidal.

Every country I have spent time in which would be considered 3rd world, has always amazed me by how seemingly happy large families are with 1/10000 of what the 1st world would consider the minimum needed to live and thrive. I've seen families living in hand built plywood shacks that are content and happy with 5-7 people living in a single room.

Humans adapt and thrive is extremely harsh conditions. Their happiness is rooted in the family unit which is generally much larger than in the 1st world.

[daletournier]

Originally Posted by boatman61

I don't Google my info.. I work by observation of life around me.. birth rates in the UK started declining about the time Maggie broke the back of the Unions and the erosion of Social Benefits began.. people stopped being paid to have kids, dental, optical and other previously free services were cut off.. free university education was ended.. children became uneconomical apart from the privileged classes.
Most in my generation for example stopped at 1 child as costs rose alarmingly.. house's that cost £3500 when I was 20 were 100,000 before I was 30 and today fetch 350,000+ and that's not in London where a 3 bed semi will set you back close on a million.
Then came the Minimum Wage which instead of raising 1/2 a million people to a living wage brought 10 times that many at least down to a subsistence wage.. this forced many families into the wife having to get a job to keep the roof over their heads..
Sorry.. just putting out the blue collar case.. well aware that many here are speaking from the white collar pulpit.. but your the minority who may sometimes notice the majority if you have to detour through a council housing estate..

Boatie well said. Im certainly hearing alot of white collar talk. When I hear about the shift to consuming experiences this seems to be true for the white collar mob, thats me, not so for the many, delayed intetest payments on tv's for the rest. The masses are in the backblocks, where I grew up, they are the majority, and the income gap between them and the above is getting wider while the social security , unfunded liabilities is becoming crippling to most developed countries.
I'm not sure what the answer is, people that got in the game early and acquired houses and other assets are benefitting hugely from a financially distorted world while the people you speak of get relatively poorer as the cost of living out runs them, incorrectly measured inflation which must get higher is going to make it harder for the people you speak of, and the gap will get greater.

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[hoppy]

The UN and governments need to start to openly talk about the population growth in the terms that it is the problem, rather than ignoring it and deflecting the discussion towards ways of increasing food supplies. The current mentality will have population growth increasing until there are so many people, that famine and wars over food and water supplies will put a cap on population growth.

Bindi Irwin has the right idea and was censored

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYbNbJG3-1k

Hillary Clinton tries to silence Bindi Irwin


I think it is time for the medical profession to stop their focus on quantity of life and put ALL of their efforts into quality of life.

Stop research in to cancer and other killer diseases and focus on diseases that don't kill but do impact on peoples ability to be productive members of society.


What would you prefer? A long life affected by a illness that causes you to not be able to live your life to the fullest, or a shorter life 100% healthy?

After having arthritis for 50 of my 52 years, I know what I'd prefer and that does not change now that I have a 11 week old daughter.