Am I crazy? - Crossing to Fiji during start of Cyclone season

[argonauta1]

We left our yacht in Raiatea at the Carenage for cyclone season. That year there were none which hit those islands but the year before there was a cyclone which damaged yachts on the hard. Our fingers were crossed!

You have received some sound advice. The best was to head back up into the Marquesas which as you will know are well worth a revisit anyway.

Otherwise, I would head as far north as reasonable not discounting the Samoas which in themselves are fascinating. Another option not yet mentioned is to head for the cyclone cheap seats just north of the equator in the Phoenix Islands of the Republic of Kiribati. Canton or Kanton has been a popular spot chosen by some cruisers over the years. It is close to the Samoas. Coords are 2.49S 171 W. The Samoas are at about 13.5S 172W so just down the meridian by 660NM and a smidge west.

Check THREAD: North During Cyclone Season??

A rule of thumb is that above 10 S, weather patterns do not include cyclones.

[BBill]

I wouldn't take the chance. In reported 40' seas I weathered the fringes of a hurricane on a 500' freighter and remember standing on watch thinking the crests would have rolled or tossed on beam ends any 60' sailboat at every passing...like a bathtub toy. It's not as simple as throwing out a drogue and running with it. Definitely not something you want to experience.

[wwarrington]

Originally Posted by JPA Cate

LiveCat6:

I'd consider applying to get permission to stay in French Polynesia
Ann

I can tell you from first hand experience that you will NOT be given a visa extension unless you have a medical condition with a note from a local doctor or a mechanical issue with your vessel which also requires a note from a local contractor. The High Commisioner is very strict on extending visas here.

I am currently in Papeete and preparing to head to New Zealand by way of Mopelia and then possible Minerva reef. I had planned to cruise Fiji this season but time got away from us and we didnt want to race through. We plan to depart on Tuesday if you would like to rally part of the way and share weather info etc.

Also, one of my good friends stores his monohull in Vuda marina in a pit for cyclone season. No issues the last two years at least. He has great things about the staff there. If they have space they can haul you out or splash you within 24 hours.

Wayne Warrington
SV Sweet Reach

[gordonhinds]

Not really. I think it’s a 4/5 day sail? You should have enough time to pick a weather window. But maybe don’t stop. You might be motoring a lot if the wind goes quite.

[gordonhinds]

Oops. It’s a lot further than I thought. Stay in Tahiti and go next year. One cyclone can ruin your day!

[opusnz]

You can't take a chance on what the forecasters or books say. Bob McDavitt is good but I would ever go on any trip where safety relied on a forecaster. Every year is different. I had a cyclone in June in Samoa and then one in Fiji in October. That made for a very short season. Some years the cyclones don't start until January.

So I am not so sure I would try sailing across the Pacific in cyclone season. You would need to get north nearer the equator (out of the cyclone zone) if you saw one coming or just stay there the whole time and do a lot of motoring and bear with the squalls and lack of wind. You would still need to eventually go south to Fiji and it wouldn't be a very fun trip.

Having said that, once you are in Fiji, you are relatively safe. I spent 8 years there and loved the coastal sailing in cyclone season. It is easy to pick your weather and sail around, keeping one eye on the weather and a cyclone hole handy in case one came along. If you want to leave your boat unattended, Vuda is a good choice.

[doug cusick]

Mate i live here...some tips...Vuda is a good hole but squeaky wheel gets the grease. They have limited amount of boats they can accommodate. There are other options depending on how much you draw. Typically there is little action cyclone wise till beginning of Dec. when it gets HOT and starts to rain. Have a backup plan in case you get caught out. Turning up right before a storm in a strange country can be very dangerous.

[jipcho]

I agree with the thrust of most of these responses. I bought an old kauri wood boat in NZ, and sailed it to Fiji. I spent a season in Fiji, leaving my vessel at Vuda Point Marina for one cyclone season. I sailed to Vanuatu the following year, and when I told other sailors of my plan to sail westward to Australia and then to circumnavigate, in order to spend time exploring the Indian Ocean and Caribbean, they often admonished me: "Don't do it. It doesn't get any better than the South Pacific." Fifteen years later, I sailed back into port in NZ. Though I have no regrets (I explored some fascinating places like Chagos, Madagascar, and St. Helena Island.), I have to admit that they were right. The South Pacific is the best. This was reinforced with my final leg of Marquesas, Tuamotus, Cook Islands, Niue, and Tonga. Don't be hasty and foolish enough to sail during cyclone season. I was caught in a nasty tropical storm south of New Caledonia at the end of cyclone season, due to such a decision.

Take your time, and don't rush. It truly doesn't get any better than the South Pacific.

[LiveCat6]

Hi guys, I just wanted to come and circle back to say thanks for all the advice and to update everyone on what my experience was.

I did end up crossing from Bora Bora to Fiji, starting about November 6th and arriving in Fiji about a month later having taken some stops along the way to recharge.

The route was:

Bora Bora to Atutaki, Cook Islands
then to Beveridge Reef (Niue)
then Neiafu, Tonga,
Then Vuda Marina in Fiji

From reading the replies on here I noticed a few interesting things:

-someone told me not to go because it was an El Nino year - that was completely wrong, it was a La Nina year
-many folks had a very negative doom and gloom view of the whole thing and that was pretty scary to read, going on about so-and-so who tried out outrun a hurricane and was never heard from again etc etc

-the folks who seemed to respond positively to my plan also seemed to be very reasonable, and pointed out that you're never just going to get a cyclone out of nowhere and so just look at the weather, plan in advance, and dont get caught with your pants down in the middle of nowhere with a cyclone approaching - solid advice.

The actual passages were brisk at times with up to 4 meter waves at peak 15-20 kt winds, and there were lots of low wind patches that required motoring as well.

We holed up in Beverage reef for 4 days of high wind to be able to continue on to Tonga afterwards in more comfort.



And so in conclusion guys I think that:
I appreciate the words of caution
I dont believe for a second that just because my passage went by without incident, and no cyclones came close that that means that one can just waltz out into the Pacific at the start of cyclone season without due caution, however:

Lets get real here. Cyclone season in the south pacific literally lasts for half of the year, with more and more cyclones occurring outside of the standard 6 month timeframe due to climate change.
To say that one shouldnt be sailing in the south pacific for more than half of the year is kind of ridiculous, especially considering that the timeframe I was asking about in this post was right at the technical start of the season when cyclones are less likely.

I hope that helps anyone researching the same topic, and I hope that conclusion seems reasonable to the reasonable sailors out there.

All the best.

[Fore and Aft]

LiveCat6 thanks for the update. It is always interesting to hear how things work out.
Cheers

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by LiveCat6

... From reading the replies on here I noticed a few interesting things:
-someone told me not to go because it was an El Nino year - that was completely wrong, it was a La Nina year ...

Thanks for updating us, and sharing some of your actual experiences, and observations.

I think you are mistaken, about El Niño/La Niña.
According to NOAA Climate.gov [& the NWS, etc], El Nino emerged in June of 2023, and grew through November, as Kelvin waves propagated along the equator. At it’s peak in November, however, the intensity of this year’s El Niño did not quite match that of the largest events in recent decades.

December 2023 El Niño update:
➥ https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...date-adventure

"... El Niño is zipping along in the tropical Pacific. There’s a 54% chance that this El Niño event will end up “historically strong” (more details below), potentially ranking in the top 5 on record. Looking ahead, it’s likely that El Niño will end and neutral conditions return by April-–June...
... Our primary metric for the strength of an ENSO event (ENSO = El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the whole El Niño and La Niña system) is the three-month-average temperature of the central tropical Pacific Ocean, specifically in the Niño-3.4 region. The temperature anomaly—the difference from the long-term average, where long-term is currently 1991–2020—in this region is called the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). We use a three-month average because ENSO is a seasonal phenomenon, meaning it persists for at least several months. We don’t have official strength definitions, but, unofficially, an ONI anomaly of 1.5 °C or warmer is considered a strong El Niño, with 2.0 °C the threshold for “very strong” or “historically strong...”

March 2024 ENSO update:
➥ https://www.climate.gov/news-feature...e-award-season

“... El Niño—the warm phase of ENSO, which is short for El Niño-Southern Oscillation—is still hanging on in the tropical Pacific, but signs are pointing to a quick transition to neutral conditions by the April–June period. There’s a 62% chance of La Niña getting the golden ticket by June–August [2024]. Stay tuned, because La Niña affects global climate patterns, including the Atlantic hurricane season and North American winter...

[LiveCat6]

Hey Gord,

It looks like you're right about 2023 El Nino/La Nina, however I made the crossing in November 2022... I just took a long time to report back lol!

Cheers:

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by LiveCat6

Hey Gord,
It looks like you're right about 2023 El Nino/La Nina, however I made the crossing in November 2022... I just took a long time to report back lol!
Cheers:

My apologies - I missed that important fact.
The protracted La Niña [the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] conditions, which began in September 2020, with a short break in 2021 boreal summer, still continued, in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, into the winter of 2022/2023, when you crossed